The Validity of the Wagner Law in Türkiye: ADL Threshold Cointegration Analysis

Year 2025, Volume: 15 Issue: 1, 1 - 8, 31.07.2025

Sibel Bolat , Burak Güriş

Abstract

Wagner's Law states that as economic growth increases, public expenditures tend to increase. This relationship has often been examined throughout historical processes; however, the empirical analysis of Wagner's Law varies depending on factors such as the level of development of the countries, the appropriateness of the method applied in the analysis, and the diversity of the periods studied. This study tests the validity of Wagner's Law for Turkey for the period 1960-2022. In the study, the threshold-valued ADL cointegration test developed by Li & Lee (2010) is used. The advantage of the test is that it can analyze cointegration by taking notice nonlinearity. The analysis results indicate that there is a long-term relationship between economic growth and public spending. Therefore, there is strong evidence that the Wagner Law is valid for Turkey.

Keywords

Wagner' s Law, ADL threshold cointegration, Public Expenditures, Economic Growth

Wagner Kanunu’nun Türkiye’de Geçerliliği: ADL Eşik Değerli Eşbütünleşme Analizi

Abstract

Wagner Kanunu, ekonomik büyüme arttıkça kamu harcamalarının da artma eğiliminde olduğunu belirtmektedir. Bu ilişki tarihsel süreçte sıklıkla incelenmiş olmakla birlikte, Wagner Kanunu’nun ampirik analizi ülkelerin gelişmişlik düzeylerine, analizde uygulanan yöntemin uygunluğu ve incelenen dönemlerdeki çeşitlilik gibi nedenlere bağlı olarak değişmektedir. Bu çalışmada 1960-2022 yılları için Wagner Kanunu'nun Türkiye için geçerliliği test edilmektedir. Çalışmada, Li & Lee (2010) tarafından geliştirilen eşik değerli ADL eşbütünleşme testi kullanılmaktadır. Testin avantajı, doğrusal olmamayı dikkate alarak eşbütünleşmeyi analiz edebilmesidir. Analiz sonuçları, ekonomik büyüme ile kamu harcamaları arasında uzun vadeli bir ilişki olduğunu göstermektedir. Dolayısıyla, Wagner Kanunu’nun Türkiye için geçerli olduğuna dair güçlü kanıtlar bulunmaktadır.

Keywords

Wagner Kanunu, ADL Eşik Değerli Eşbütünleşme Testi, Kamu Harcamaları, Ekonomik Büyüme

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