Küresel Ekonomik, Politik ve Jeopolitik Belirsizliklerin Makroekonomik Etkileri: Türkiye Ekonomisi Üzerine SVAR Analizi (1992:Q1-2018Q:2)

Yıl 2019, Cilt: 14 Sayı: 53, 56 - 73, 31.01.2019

Ömer Yalçınkaya

Öz

Bu çalışmada, küresel ekonomide ekonomik,
politik ve jeopolitik (EPJ) gelişmelerden kaynaklı belirsizliklerin, Türkiye
ekonomisinin finansal ve mali nitelikli temel makroekonomik göstergeleri (faiz,
enflasyon ve işsizlik oranı, döviz kuru, hisse senedi fiyatları, para arzı,
cari işlemler dengesi, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar, portföy yatırımları, diğer
yatırımlar, fiziksel sermaye birikimi, ekonomik büyüme) üzerinde teorik düzeyde
öngörüldüğü gibi etkiler yaratıp yaratmadığının ampirik olarak incelenmesi amaçlanmaktadır.
Bu amaçla çalışmada, küresel EPJ belirsizliklerin Türkiye ekonomisinin finansal
ve mali nitelikli makroekonomik göstergeleri üzerindeki etkileri, zaman serisi
analizi metodolojisi ve SVAR modeli kapsamında 1992:Q1-2018Q:2 dönemi için
ekonometrik olarak araştırılmaktadır. Çalışmanın sonucunda, küresel EPJ
gelişmelerden kaynaklı belirsizliklerin, kısa ve/veya uzun dönemde Türkiye
ekonomisinin finansal ve mali nitelikli makroekonomik göstergeleri üzerinde
önemli ölçüde ve beklentilerle uyumlu olarak olumsuz yönde etkiler yarattığı
belirlenmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Finansal ve Mali Makroekonomik Göstergeler, EPJ Belirsizlik Şokları, SVAR Analizi

Kaynakça

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