Is the Foreign Trade Deficit Sustainable in Turkey? An Econometric Analysis

Year 2019, Volume: 14, 148 - 153, 27.03.2019

Mehmet Dağ Fatma Kızılkaya

Abstract

Türkiye’de Dış Ticaret Açığı Sürdürülebilir mi? Ekonometrik Bir Analiz

Abstract

Son yıllarda Türkiye ekonomisinin önemli sorunlarından biri haline gelen
dış ticaret açığı gündemdeki yerini korumaktadır. Bu çalışmada 1984:01-2017:04
dönemi veriler kullanılarak Türkiye’de dış ticaret açığının sürdürülebilir olup
olmadığı araştırılmıştır. Çalışmada sürdürülebilirliğin analizi için yöntem
olarak Quintos (1995) tarafından önerilen ve değişkenler arasında eşbütünleşme
ilişkisinin test edilmesine dayanan yöntem kullanılmıştır. Seriler arasında
eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin varlığı, Bayer ve Hanck (2012) tarafından önerilen
eşbütünleşme testi ile araştırılmış, uzun dönem eşbütünleşme katsayıları ise DOLS ve FMOLS yöntemleri ile
tahmin edilmiştir. Çalışma sonucunda elde edilen bulgular Türkiye’de uzun
dönemde dış ticaret açığının zayıf sürdürülebilir olduğunu göstermektedir.

Keywords

Sürdürülebilirlik, Dış Ticaret Açığı, Eşbütünleşme, DOLS, FMOLS

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