Finansal Başarısızlık Tahmin Modellerinin Covid-19 Salgını Dönemindeki Geçerlilik Analizleri

Year 2022, Volume: 17 Issue: 65, 249 - 276, 31.01.2022

Gerçek Özparlak

https://doi.org/10.19168/jyasar.1011804

Abstract

Firmaların beklemedik iflasları, şirket ortaklarına, yatırımcılara, çalışanlara, devlete, ticari ve finansal alacaklılara büyük zarar vermektedir. Bu kapsamda, şirketlerin finansal başarısızlık risklerinin sürekli ölçülerek kontrol edilmesi gerekir. Fakat firmaların finansal başarısızlık riskini ölçen finansal modellerin de geçerliliklerinin sürekli olarak kontrol edilmesi önemlidir. Çünkü bu modellerin geçerlilik oranları ne kadar yüksek olursa, yatırımcı ve araştırmacıların bu modellerden elde edilen sonuçlara göre doğru karar verme ihtimalleri de o kadar yükselmiş olur. Bu bağlamda, bu çalışmada literatürde yaygın olarak kullanılan Altman (1968), Springate (1978), Ohlson (1980), Fulmer (1984), Zmijewski (1984), Kanada (1987) ve Grove (2001) modellerinin geçerlilik testleri yapılmıştır. Çalışmanın örneklemi, ABD piyasalarında yer alan ve 2018 ile 2020 yılları arasında resmi olarak iflası açıklanan 8 adet enerji işletmesinden oluşmaktadır. Çalışmanın evreni, finansal kuruluşlar, mali şirketler ve sigorta şirketleri dışında kalan tüm şirketlerdir. Araştırma sonuçlarına göre, Springate ve Altman modellerinin şirketlerin finansal başarısızlık riskini en iyi tahmin eden modeller olduğu görülmüştür. Bununla birlikte Kanada ve Fulmer modelleri başarı performansı en yüksek ikinci grup modellerdir. Grover modelinin de başarı ortalaması genel ortalamanın biraz üzerindedir. Bununla birlikte, Zmijewski ve Ohlson modellerinin genel başarı oranı genel ortalamanın altında kalmıştır.

Keywords

Finansal Başarısızlık Modelleri, Finansal Performans, Şirket İflasları, Enerji Sektörü, Amerikan Piyasaları

Validity Analysis of Financial Failure Prediction Models During the Covid-19 Pandemic

Abstract

Unexpected bankruptcies of companies cause significant damage to company partners, investors, employees, countries, commercial and financial creditors. In this context, the financial failure risks should be constantly measured and controlled. However, it is important to constantly check the validity of financial models that measure the risk of the financial failure of companies. Because the higher the validity rates of these models, the higher the probability of investors and researchers to make the right decision according to the results obtained from these models. In this context, validity tests widely used in the literature, namely Altman (1968), Springate (1978), Ohlson (1980), Fulmer (1984), Zmijewski (1984), Canada (1987) and Grove (2001) models, were applied in this study. The study sample comprises of 8 energy companies in the US markets, which were officially declared bankrupt between 2018 and 2020. The universe of the study includes all companies and excludes financial institutions, financial companies and insurance companies. The research results have shown that Springate and Altman models best predict the financial failure risk of companies. However, Canadian and Fulmer models are the second group of models with the highest performance. The overall accuracy rate of the Grover model is also slightly above the overall average, while the overall accuracy rate of the Zmijewski and Ohlson models is below the general average.

Keywords

Financial Failure Prediction Models, Financial Performance, Company Bankruptcies, Energy Sector, US Markets

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