THE IMPACT OF 2023 KAHRAMANMARAŞ EARTHQUAKES ON REAL ESTATE RELATED SECTORS: AN EVENT STUDY ANALYSIS

Year 2023, , 789 - 811, 29.12.2023

Gülnaz Şengül Güneş , Tuğba Güneş , Sinan Güneş

https://doi.org/10.36543/kauiibfd.2023.032

Abstract

Kahramanmaraş depremleri, kuzey Suriye’yi ve Türkiye’nin 11 ilini yıkıcı bir şekilde etkilemiş ve binlerce kişinin hayatını kaybetmesine, yaralanmasına ve mal kaybına yol açmıştır. Depremin şiddeti ve hissedilen alanın büyüklüğü Türkiye ekonomisini bir bütün olarak etkilemiştir. Depremden binlerce binanın yıkılması veya hasar görmesi nedeniyle gayrimenkul sektörü en çok etkilenen sektörlerden biri olmuştur. Bu nedenle araştırma kapsamında Kahramanmaraş merkezli depremin gayrimenkul ile ilgili sektörlere olan etkisinin incelenmesi amaçlanmıştır. İnşaat, çimento ve beton, demir ve çelik, gayrimenkul yatırım ortaklıkları ve sigorta sektörleri seçilmiştir. Olay analizi metodolojisi kullanılarak yapılan analizlerde, seçilen tüm sektörlerin depremlerden etkilendiği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Araştırma bulgularına göre; anormal getiriler sektörler arasında farklılık göstermektedir. İnşaat malzemeleri ile ilgili sektörlerde pozitif, sigorta sektöründe ise negatif yönlü anormal getiriler dikkat çekici olarak bulunmuştur. Elde edilen sonuçlar piyasa katılımcıları, politika yapıcılar ve hükümetler için önem taşımaktadır.

Keywords

Gayrimenkul sektörü, deprem, olay analiz çalışması, borsa endeksleri

THE IMPACT OF 2023 KAHRAMANMARAŞ EARTHQUAKES ON REAL ESTATE RELATED SECTORS: AN EVENT STUDY ANALYSIS

Abstract

Kahramanmaraş earthquakes devastatingly hit the northern Syria and 11 provinces of Türkiye, causing thousands of deaths, injuries and property losses. The magnitude of the earthquakes and the extent of their impacts were huge enough to affect the entire Turkish economy. Real estate industry has been one of the most affected sectors as thousands of buildings were collapsed or damaged by the quake. This study aims to explore the impacts of Kahramanmaraş earthquakes on real estate related sectors in the Turkish stock market: Construction, cement-concrete, iron-steel, real estate investment trusts, and insurance. Using an event study methodology, our short-run analyses indicated that all given sectors were affected by the earthquakes. According to our findings, abnormal returns varied among the sectors: The construction materials sectors had positive abnormal returns while the insurance sector did abnormal returns on the opposite way. The findings are vital for market participants, policymakers and governments.

Keywords

Real estate sector, earthquake, event study, stock indices

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