ORTA DOĞU VE KUZEY AFRİKA ÜLKELERİNDE SAVUNMA HARCAMALARININ YAKINSAMASI İÇİN AMPİRİK BİR ANALİZ

Year 2021, , 147 - 159, 28.06.2021

Elmas Demircioğlu Karabıyık

https://doi.org/10.36543/kauiibfd.2021.008

Abstract

Ülkeler caydırıcılık başta olmak üzere çeşitli sebepler savunma harcamalarına kaynak ayırmaktadır. Bu çalışmada Orta Doğu Ve Kuzey Afrika ülkelerinde savunma harcamaları için, yakınsama hipotezi incelenmiştir. Çalışmada Orta Doğu Ve Kuzey Afrika ülkeleri için 1993-2019 dönemi yıllık Savunma Harcamaları/GSYİH kullanılmıştır. Analiz sonuçlarına göre Orta Doğu Ve Kuzey Afrika ülkelerinde savunma harcamalarının panel bazında koşulsuz β yakınsamasının söz konusu olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Ülkelerin yakınsama sonuçlarına göre ise, Fas, Tunus, Ürdün, Türkiye %10 istatistiksel anlam düzeyinde, Bahreyn, Kuveyt ve Lübnan’ın %5 istatistiksel anlam düzeyinde ve Suudi Arabistan %1 istatistiksel anlam düzeyinde grup ortalamasına yakınsama göstermektedir. Sonuç olarak, ülkelerin çoğunluğu, bölgesel güvenlik risklerindeki artış ve/veya komşu ülkelerin silahlanma politikalarındaki değişimler gibi faktörlerin etkisi ile savunma harcamalarında, bölgedeki ülke grubunun ortalama eğilimine göre hareket etmektedirler.

Keywords

Orta Doğu Ve Kuzey Afrika ülkeleri, Savunma Harcamaları, Yakınsama

Thanks

Beğeniyle takip ettiğimiz derginizin bu sayısında makalemi değerlendirmenizi saygılarımla bilgilerinize arz ederim.

AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS FOR CONVERGENCE OF DEFENCE EXPENDITURES IN MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA COUNTRIES

Abstract

Countries allocate resources for defence expenditures for various reasons, especially deterrence. In this study, the convergence hypothesis for defence spending in the Middle East and North African countries is examined. In the study, annual Defence Expenditures / GDP for the period 1993-2019 were used for the Middle East and North African countries. According to the analysis results, it was determined that there is an unconditional β convergence in defence expenditures on a panel basis in the Middle East and North African countries. According to the convergence of results by country, Morocco, Tunisia, Jordan, Turkey at the 10% statistical significance level, Bahrain, Kuwait and Lebanon at the 5% statistical significance level, and Saudi Arabia at the 1% statistical significance converges to the group average. As a result, most of the countries act according to the average trend of the country group in the region in defence expenditures due to factors such as the increase in regional security risks and / or changes in armament policies of neighbouring countries.

Keywords

Middle East and North Africa Countries, Defence Expenditures, Convergence

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