TERÖR YOKLUĞU VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME DEĞİŞKENLERİNİN TURİST VARIŞLARINA ETKİSİ: MENA ÜLKELERİ ÖRNEĞİ

Year 2025, Issue: 65, 22 - 34, 24.03.2025

Muhammet Nimet Çavuş

https://doi.org/10.17498/kdeniz.1630081

Abstract

Bu çalışma, MENA bölgesinde yer alan 15 ülkede ekonomik büyüme, siyasi istikrar ve şiddet/terör yokluğu göstergesinin turist varışları üzerindeki etkisini incelemektedir. Çalışma kapsamında kullanılan veri seti, 2002-2023 yılları arasındaki 22 yıllık süreci kapsamaktadır. Araştırmanın amacı, belirlenen 15 MENA ñülkesi için turist varışları üzerinde siyasi istikrar ve şiddet/terör yokluğu göstergesi ile ekonomik büyümeyi uygun panel veri modeli ile analiz etmektir. Literatür taraması sonucunda, çalışmada oluşturulan modelin daha önce tahmin edilmediği görülmüştür. Araştırma modelinin tahmini için uygun panel veri modelinin belirlenmesi amacıyla yatay kesit bağımlılığı testi, birim kök testleri, Hausman testi, heteroskedastisite testi ve otokorelasyon testi uygulanmıştır. Bu varsayım testleri sonucunda, modelde birimler arası yatay kesit bağımlılığı, heteroskedastisite ve birinci dereceden otokorelasyon olduğu belirlenmiştir. Bu nedenle, araştırma modelinin tahmininde bu varsayımları karşılayan Esnek Genelleştirilmiş EKK (FGLS) tahmincisi kullanılmıştır. Model tahmin sonuçlarına göre, siyasi istikrar ve şiddet/terör yokluğu göstergesindeki ve ekonomik büyümeye ilişkin artışlar, MENA ülkelerine yönelik turist varışlarını arttırmaktadır.

Keywords

Ekonomik büyümé, Terör yokluğu, Turist varışları, MENA, Panel veri analizi

THE EFFECT OF ABSENCE OF TERRORISM AND ECONOMIC GROWTH VARIABLES ON TOURIST ARRIVALS: THE CASE OF MENA COUNTRIES

Abstract

This study examines the impact of economic growth, political stability, and the absence of violence/terrorism on tourist arrivals in 15 countries within the MENA region. The dataset used in the study covers a 22-year period from 2002 to 2023. The aim of the study is to analyze the effects of political stability, the absence of violence/terrorism, and economic growth on tourist arrivals in the selected 15 MENA countries using an appropriate panel data model. The literature review indicates that the model developed in this study has not been previously estimated. To determine the appropriate panel data model for estimating the research model, cross-sectional dependence tests, unit root tests, the Hausman test, heteroskedasticity tests, and autocorrelation tests were conducted. The results of these assumption tests indicate the presence of cross-sectional dependence, heteroskedasticity, and first-order autocorrelation. Therefore, the Flexible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) estimator, which accounts for these assumptions, was employed to estimate the research model. According to the estimation results, an increase in political stability, the absence of violence/terrorism, and economic growth leads to an increase in tourist arrivals to MENA countries.

Keywords

Economic growth, Absence of terrorism, Tourist arrivals, MENA, Panel data analysis

ОТСУТСТВИЕ ТЕРРОРА И ВЛИЯНИЕ ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОГО РОСТА НА КОЛИЧЕСТВО ТУРИСТОВ: ПРИМЕР СТРАН MENA

Abstract

В данном исследовании анализируется влияние экономического роста, политической стабильности и отсутствия насилия/терроризма на туристические потоки в 15 странах региона MENA. Используемый набор данных охватывает 22-летний период с 2002 по 2023 годы. Цель исследования — проанализировать влияние политической стабильности, отсутствия насилия/терроризма и экономического роста на количество прибывающих туристов в 15 выбранных странах MENA с использованием соответствующей модели панельных данных. Обзор литературы показал, что разработанная в данном исследовании модель ранее не была оценена. Для выбора подходящей модели панельных данных были проведены тесты на зависимость между срезами, тесты на единичные корни, тест Хаусмана, тест на гетероскедастичность и тест на автокорреляцию. Результаты этих тестов выявили наличие зависимостей между срезами, гетероскедастичности и автокорреляции первого порядка. В связи с этим для оценки модели использовался метод гибких обобщенных наименьших квадратов (FGLS), который учитывает данные предположения. Согласно результатам оценки модели, увеличение политической стабильности, отсутствие насилия/терроризма и экономический рост способствуют увеличению туристического потока в страны MENA.

Keywords

Экономический рост, Отсутствие террора, Туристические потоки, MENA, Панельный анализ данных

References

• Akar, G. (2021). Doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ve turizm arasındaki ilişki: Türkiye örneği. Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi (43), 191-204. https://doi.org/10.30794/pausbed.741900
• Baghirov, A. (2023). Turizm sektörü ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki: OECD’ye dahil 7 Batı Avrupa ülkeleri üzerinden panel veri analizi. Ekonomi Bilimleri Dergisi, 15 (2), 140-177. https://doi.org/10.55827/ebd.1341079.
• Bahar, O. & Bozkurt, K. (2010). Gelişmekte olan ülkelerde turizm-ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: dinamik panel veri analizi. Anatolia: Turizm Araştırmaları Dergisi, 21(2), 255-265.
• Baker, D. M. A. (2014). The effects of terrorism on the travel and tourism industry. International journal of religious tourism and pilgrimage, 2(1), 9, 58-67. https://doi.org/10.21427/D7VX3D
• Balaguer, J. & Cantavella-Jordá, M. (2002). Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor: the Spanish case. Applied Economics, 34 (7), 877-884. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840110058923
• Bassil, C., Saleh, A. S. & Anwar, S. (2017). Terrorism and tourism demand: a case study of Lebanon, Turkey and Israel. Current Issues in Tourism, 22(1), 50–70. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2017.1397609
• Basu, K. & Marg, V.S. (2012), Impact of Political Instability and Terrorism in the Tourism Industry of Three Middle East Countries: An Economic Exploration. In International conference on tourism, transport & logistic, UP organizer and publication Co, France. http://www.ijbts-journal.com/images/main_1366796758/0002- Kaushik.pdf
• Baum, T.G. & O’Gorman, K.D. (2010). Iran or Persia: What’s in a name? The decline and fall of a tourism industry. R.W. Butler, & W. Suntikul (eds.), Tourism and Political Change içinde (pp. 175–186). London: Routledge.
• Bayhan, İ. & Ünlüönen, K. (2016). Turist tercihlerinde güvenliğe ilişkin tutumlarının etkisi: bir alan araştırması. Elektronik Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 15(56). https://doi.org/10.17755/esosder.17240
• Bölen, B. H. (2018). Türkiye’de turizme dayalı büyüme hipotezinin tutarlılığı: Bölünmüş turizm piyasaları ile analiz. Yüksek Lisans Tezi. Nevşehir Hacı Bektaş Veli Üniversitesi.
• Butler, R. W. (2019). Tourism and conflict in the Middle East, D. J. Timothy (ed.) Routledge Handbook on Tourism in the Middle East and North Africa içinde (pp. 231-240), New York: Routledge.
• Chen, C.-F. & Chiou-Wei, S.Z. (2009) Tourism expansion, tourism uncertainty and economic growth: new evidence from Taiwan and Korea. Tourism Management, 30, 812-818. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2008.12.013
• http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2008.12.013
• Crouch, G.I. & Ritchie, J.R.B. (1999) Tourism, competitiveness, and societal prosperity. Journal of Business Research, 44, 137-152.
• https://doi.org/10.1016/S0148-2963(97)00196-3
• Drakos, K. & Kutan, A. M. (2003). Regional effects of terrorism on tourism: evidence from three Mediterranean countries. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 47, 621-641. http://www.jstor.org/stable/3176222
• Dritsakis, N. (2004). Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor: an empirical ınvestigation for Greece using causality analysis. Tourism Economics, 10, 305-316.https://doi.org/10.5367/0000000041895094
• Edmonds, C. & Mak, J. (2006). Terrorism and Tourism in the Asia Pasific Region: Is Travel And Tourism in a New World After 9/11 ? East-West Center Working Paper, (86), 3-29. http://hdl.handle.net/10125/3697
• Eilat, Y. & Einav, L. (2004). Determinants of international tourism: a three-dimensional panel data analysis. Applied Economics, 36(12), 1315–1327. https://doi.org/10.1080/000368404000180897
• Enders, W. & Sandler, T. (1991). Causality between transnational terrorism and tourism: the case of Spain. Terrorism, 14(1), 49–58. https://doi.org/10.1080/10576109108435856
• Enders, W., Sandler, T. & Parise, G. F. (1992). An econometric analysis of the impact of terrorism on tourism. Kyklos, 45(4), 531-554. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-6435.1992.tb02758.x
• Eugenio-Martin, J. L., Morales, N. M. & Scarpa, R. (2004). Tourism and economic growth in Latin American countries: A panel data approach. FEEM Working Paper No. 26.2004. http://ssrn.com/abstract=504482
• Gaberli, Ü. & Akdeniz, A. (2024). Uluslararası turizm talebi ve cari işlemler dengesi ilişkisi: Akdeniz Havzası ekonomilerinden ampirik bulgular. International Journal of Social Inquiry, 17(3), 563-574. https://doi.org/10.37093/ijsi.1513357
• Gidey, K. (2021). The effect of tourism on current account balance in Ethiopia. Journal of African Development Studies, 8(2), 5-20. https://doi.org/10.56302/jads.v8i2.3257
• IMF (2024). Middle East and North Africa: Conflict Compounding Economic Challenges. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/REO/MECA/Issues/2024/01/31/regional-economic-outlook-update- mena-january-2024
• Jones, E. (2010). Arab politics and tourism: Political change and tourism in the Great Socialist Peoples’ Libyan Arab Jamahiriya. R.W. Butler & W. Suntikul (eds), Tourism and Political Change içinde (108–119). Oxford: Goodfellow.
• Karataş, A. & Şahin, S. (2023). Turistlerin risk ve güvenlik algılarının algılanan değer ve destinasyon tercihine etkisi. Journal of Tourism and Gastronomy Studies, 11 (1), 580-603. https://doi.org/10.21325/jotags.2023.1208
• Karl, M., Muskat, B. & Ritchie, B. W. (2020). Which travel risks are more salient for destination choice? An examination of the tourist’s decision-making procepp. Journal of Destination Marketing & Management, 18, 100487. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdmm.2020.100487
• Kum, H., Aslan, A. & Gungor, M. (2015). Tourism and economic growth: the case of next 11 countries. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 5(4), 1075-1081. https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/view/1655
• Küçükaltan, D. (2012). Terörizmin Hedefindeki Sektör Turizm(Kronolojik Bir Yaklaşım). Detay Yayıncılık.
• Laderman, S. (2013) ‘From the Vietnam War to the “war on terror”: Tourism and the martial fascination. R.W. Butler ve W. Suntikul (eds.), Tourism and War (pp. 26–35). London: Routledge.
• Lepp, A. & Gibson, H. (2003). Tourist roles, perceived risk and international tourism. Annals of Tourism Research, 30, 606–624. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0160-7383(03)00024-0
• Neumayer, H. (2004). The impact of political violence on tourism: Dynamic cross-national estimation. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 48(2), 259-281. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002703262358
• Özcan, C. C. & Özmen, İ. (2016). Terör ve turizm ilişkisinin karşilaştirmali bir analizi: AB ve Mena örneği. Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 9(4), 69-83. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/ohuiibf/issue/27841/294661
• Reeves, N. (2019). The impact of political ınstability on the tourism sector in the Middle East and North Africa. The George Washington University Undergraduate Review. 2, 93-107. http://dx.doi.org/10.4079/2578-9201.2(2019).02
• Saha, S. & Yap, G. (2014). The moderation effects of political ınstability and terrorism on tourism development: a cross-country panel analysis. Journal of Travel Research, 53, 509-521. https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287513496472
• Sönmez, S.F. (1998). Tourism, terrorism, and political instability. Annals of Tourism Research, 25(2), 416- 456. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0160-7383(97)00093-5
• Sönmez, S. F. & Graefe, A. R. (1998). Influence of terrorism risk on foreign tourism decisions. Annals of tourism research, 25(1), 112-144. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0160-7383(97)00072-8
• Tang, C. F. & Abosedra, S. (2014). The impacts of tourism, energy consumption and political instability on economic growth in the MENA countries. Energy policy, 68, 458-464. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2014.01.004
• Tomazos, K. (2017). Egypt’s tourism industry and the Arab Spring. R.W. Butler & W. Suntikul (eds), Tourism and Political Change (ss. 214–229). Oxford: Goodfellow.
• Tutar, F., Alpaslan, C., Tutar, E. & Erkan, Ç. (2013). Turizm sektörünün istihdam üzerine etkileri. Global Journal of Economics and Business Studies, 2(4), 14-27. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/84090
• UNWTO (World Tourism Organization) (2016a) Compilation of UNWTO Declarations 1980–2016. Madrid: UNWTO
• UNWTO (2016b) Yearbook of Tourism Statistics 2010–2014, 2016 edn. Madrid: UNWTO.
• UNWTO (2017). Tourism key for economic growth and diversification in the MENA region. Erişim adresi: https://www.unwto.org/archive/middle-east/press-release/2017-04-25/tourism-key-economic-growth-and- diversification-mena-region
• Usman, O., Alola, A. A. & Ike, G. (2023). Inbound tourism demand elasticities of MENA countries: the role of internal and external conflicts. International Journal of Emerging Markets, 18(10), 4690-4706. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJOEM-04-2021-0650
• Yerdelen-Tatoğlu, F. (2018). Panel Veri Ekonometrisi Stata Uygulamalı (4. Baskı). Beta Yayınevi.