Konut Projelerinde İdeal İş Süresinin Tahmini İçin Bir Hesaplama Yöntemi Önerisi

Abstract

İnşaat projelerinde süresel gecikmelerin yönetimi, dünya genelinde araştırmacılar arasında büyük ilgi görmektedir. Bu konudaki geniş literatür, iş süresini etkileyen çok sayıda faktör olduğunu öne sürmektedir. Bu faktörlerle iş süresini belirmeye yönelik tahmin yöntemleri, daha güvenilir araçlar ve etkin zaman performansı sağlamak açısından önceki araştırmalarda kullanılmıştır. İş süresi hesaplama tekniklerinin önemli potansiyeli olmasına rağmen, bu yöntemler sınırlı sayıdaki çalışmada ihale aşamasında ve konut projelerinde uygulanmıştır. Ayrıca Türkiye’de inşaat süresi ile ilgili araştırmalar, konut projelerinde önemli gecikmeler olduğunu göstermiştir. Bu nedenle “İdeal İş Süresi”ne ulaşmak amacıyla yeni bir hesaplama yöntemi önermek için sadece konut projelerinde inşaat süresini etkileyen faktörlerin araştırılmasına karar verilmiştir. Konut projelerine ilişkin veriler, Türkiye'de konut projeleri inşa etmede temel kurum olan Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Toplu Konut İdaresi Başkanlığı'ndan (TOKİ) elde edilmiştir. İstatistiksel veri analizinde çoklu regresyon, CHAID ve CART analizleri kullanılmıştır. Çalışmanın bulguları, her bir istatistiksel yöntem için İdeal İş Süresini önemli ölçüde etkileyen birkaç faktörün olduğunu göstermiştir. Her üç istatistiksel yöntemin de geçerliliğini test etmek için kestirim değerleri ve standart hatalar hesaplanmıştır. Regresyon formülü, önerilen hesaplama yönteminin sınanmasında istatistiksel anlamlılık göstermiştir. Yöntemin farklı konut projelerine de uygulanması, geciken proje sayısının önemli ölçüde azaldığını kanıtlamıştır.

Keywords

• Proje Yönetimi
• İdeal İş Süresi
• Süre Planlaması
• Proje Gecikmeleri
• CHAID
• CART

A Calculation Method Proposal For Estimation of Ideal Construction Duration in Housing Projects

Abstract

The management of delays in construction projects is of great interest among researchers around the world. The extensive literature on this topic suggests that there are many factors affecting construction duration. Estimation methods for determining construction duration with these factors have been used in previous studies to provide more reliable tools and effective time performance. Although construction duration calculation techniques have significant potential, these methods have been applied in a limited number of studies regarding tender stage and housing projects. In addition, research on construction duration in Turkey have shown that there are significant delays in housing projects. Therefore, in order to propose a novel calculation method to reach the “Ideal Construction Duration”, it was decided to investigate the factors affecting the construction duration only in housing projects. Data on housing projects were obtained from the Housing Development Administration of Turkey (TOKI), which is the main institution in constructing housing projects. Multiple regression, CHAID and CART methods were used in statistical data analysis. The findings of the study showed that there are several factors that significantly affect the Ideal Construction Duration for each statistical method. To test the validity of all three statistical methods, cutoff values and standard errors were calculated. The regression formula showed statistical significance in testing the proposed calculation method. The implementation of proposed method to different housing projects has proven that the number of delayed projects has significantly decreased.

Keywords

• Project Management
• Ideal Construction Duration
• Scheduling
• Project Delays
• CHAID
• CART

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