Rcp – Based Coastal Paradox Modeling at Airports: Does Global Sea-Level Rise Affect Aviation?

Year 2023, Volume: 16 Issue: 2, 948 - 968, 15.06.2023

Pınar Demir , Didem Rodoplu Şahin

https://doi.org/10.35674/kent.1189532

Cited By: 1

Abstract

Climate change affects every continent, country, city, and sector. The extent of these effects is governed by the period over which they occur, the rate of global warming, and the mitigation actions employed. One of the sectors most affected by climate change is aviation. Climate change may result in mandatory rules such as airport closures, airline route changes, increased operational expenses, and new legal duties, among several other things.

Weather events caused by climate change are projected to impact the aviation industry immediately. Storms and excessive temperatures can cause delays, cancellations, and infrastructure disruptions. In the long term, gradual but more permanent effects can occur in temperature change or global sea-level rise, changes in passenger demand, the new aviation hubs, the loss of existing attraction points, and economic repercussions such as infrastructure damage or loss.

The effects of climate change restrictions on the aviation sector, particularly airports, are analyzed in this paper. The consequences of rising water levels on airports and future scenarios are examined and projected. Through sample modeling, the future scenarios that a few airports are likely to encounter have been investigated using statistical data. This study uses the Coastline Paradox-based tool to model future global sea level rises. The study's findings are based on projections for 2050-2200. The study, the effects of climate change on aviation have been examined, and airports that will be out of use due to global sea-level rise have been estimated. One of the aims of the study is to raise awareness of aviation authorities and corporations about these devastating consequences and to contribute to their necessary preparations and precautions. The study looked at airports in Europe and America recognized as aviation centers. The applied working techniques and analyses are described in depth.

Keywords

Climate change, Global warming, Global Sea level, Airports, Aviation Industry

Küresel Deniz Seviyesindeki Yükseliş Havacılığı Etkiler mi? HAVALİMANLARINDA RCP-"COASTAL PARADOX" TABANLI İNCELEME

Abstract

İklim değişikliği her kıtayı, ülkeyi, şehri ve sektörü etkilemektedir. Bu etkilerin kapsamı, meydana geldikleri süre, küresel ısınmanın hızı ve yapılan önleme eylemleri tarafından belirlenmektedir. İklim değişikliğinden en çok etkilenen sektörlerden biri de havacılık sektörüdür. Havaalanlarının kapanması, havayollarının mevcut rotalarında değişikliğe gitmesi, artan işletme giderleri ve yeni yasal yükümlülüklerin belirlenmesi gibi zorunlu uygulamalara geçilmesi iklim değişikliği sonucunda beklenebilir.

İklim değişikliği kaynaklı meteoroloji olaylarının havacılık sektörüne etkilerinin şu andan itibaren olması öngörülüyor. Fırtınalar ve aşırı sıcaklıklar operasyonel gecikmelere, uçuş iptallerine ve altyapı kesintilerine neden olabilir. Uzun vadede sıcaklık değişimi veya küresel deniz seviyesinin yükselmesi sonucunda , yolcu talebindeki değişiklikler, yeni havacılık merkezlerinin oluşması, mevcut cazibe noktalarının kaybolması ve altyapı hasarları gibi ekonomik faaliyetlerde kademeli ancak daha kalıcı etkiler meydana gelebilir.

Bu çalışmada iklim değişikliği kısıtlamalarının başta havaalanları olmak üzere havacılık sektörü üzerindeki etkileri analiz edilmektedir. Yükselen su seviyelerinin havaalanları üzerindeki etkileri ve geleceğe yönelik öngörülen senaryoları incelenmiştir. Örnek modelleme yoluyla, belirlenen havaalanları istatiksel veriler kullanılarak oluşturulan muhtemel gelecek senaryoları araştırılmıştır. Bu çalışma, gelecekteki küresel deniz seviyesi artışlarını modellemek için “Coastline Paradox” tabanlı aracı kullanır. Çalışmanın bulguları 2050-2200 yılları arasındaki sürece dayanmaktadır. Çalışmada, iklim değişikliğinin havacılık üzerindeki etkileri incelenmiş ve küresel deniz seviyesi yükselmesiyle kullanım dışı kalacak havaalanları tahmin edilmiştir. Çalışmanın amaçlarından biri de havacılık otoritelerini ve kurumlarını bu yıkıcı sonuçlara karşı bilinçlendirmek, gerekli hazırlık ve önlemlere katkıda bulunmaktır. Çalışma, havacılık merkezleri olarak kabul edilen Avrupa ve Amerika'daki havaalanlarına odaklanmıştır.

Keywords

İklim değişikliği, Küresel ısınma, Küresel deniz seviyesi, Havalimanları, Havacılık endüstrisi

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