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Rcp – Based Coastal Paradox Modeling at Airports: Does Global Sea-Level Rise Affect Aviation?

Year 2023, Volume: 16 Issue: 2, 948 - 968, 15.06.2023
https://doi.org/10.35674/kent.1189532

Abstract

Climate change affects every continent, country, city, and sector. The extent of these effects is governed by the period over which they occur, the rate of global warming, and the mitigation actions employed. One of the sectors most affected by climate change is aviation. Climate change may result in mandatory rules such as airport closures, airline route changes, increased operational expenses, and new legal duties, among several other things.

Weather events caused by climate change are projected to impact the aviation industry immediately. Storms and excessive temperatures can cause delays, cancellations, and infrastructure disruptions. In the long term, gradual but more permanent effects can occur in temperature change or global sea-level rise, changes in passenger demand, the new aviation hubs, the loss of existing attraction points, and economic repercussions such as infrastructure damage or loss.

The effects of climate change restrictions on the aviation sector, particularly airports, are analyzed in this paper. The consequences of rising water levels on airports and future scenarios are examined and projected. Through sample modeling, the future scenarios that a few airports are likely to encounter have been investigated using statistical data. This study uses the Coastline Paradox-based tool to model future global sea level rises. The study's findings are based on projections for 2050-2200. The study, the effects of climate change on aviation have been examined, and airports that will be out of use due to global sea-level rise have been estimated. One of the aims of the study is to raise awareness of aviation authorities and corporations about these devastating consequences and to contribute to their necessary preparations and precautions. The study looked at airports in Europe and America recognized as aviation centers. The applied working techniques and analyses are described in depth.

References

  • Beckley, B. D., Callahan, P. S., Hancock Iii, D. W., Mitchum, G. T., & Ray, R. D. (2017). On the “Cal‐Mode” correction to TOPEX satellite altimetry and its effect on the global mean sea level time series. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 122(11), 8371-8384.
  • Berardelli, J. (2019). How climate change is making hurricanes more dangerous. Yale Climate Connections, 8.
  • Cazenave, A., Meyssignac, B., Ablain, M., Balmaseda, M., Bamber, J., & Contributors, A. (2018). Global Sea-Level Budget 1993-Present. Earth System Science Data, 10, 1551-1590.
  • Church, J. A., & White, N. J. (2011). Sea-level rise from the late 19th to the early 21st century. Surveys in geophysics, 32(4), 585-602.
  • Frederikse, T., Landerer, F., Caron, L., Adhikari, S., Parkes, D., Humphrey, V. W., ... & Wu, Y. H. (2020). The causes of sea-level rise since 1900. Nature, 584(7821), 393-397.
  • Griggs, G. (2020). Coastal airports and rising sea levels. Journal of Coastal Research, 36(5), 1079-1092.
  • https://artsexperiments.withgoogle.com/coastline-, paradox/?mode=map&lat=52.33907801934555&lng=4.806409832976266&zoom=12&alat=52.37299&alng=4.8932&arad=5000 , Erişim tarihi 01.08.2022
  • https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/148494/anticipating-future-sea-levels, Date of Access 01.08.2022
  • https://www.airlines.iata.org/analysis/2050-net-zero-carbon-emissions, Date of Access 01.08.2022
  • https://www.anewjfk.com/, Date of access 01.08.2022
  • https://www.annualreportschiphol.com/trafficreview2019/summary, Date of Access 01.08.2022
  • https://www.artsexperiments.withgoogle.com/coastline-paradox/, Date of access 01.08.2022
  • https://www.coastadapt.com.au/infographics,Date of access, 01.08.2022
  • https://www.flysfo.com/media/facts-statistics/air-traffic-statistics/2019, Date of access 01.08.2022
  • https://www.heathrow.com/company/about-heathrow/performance/airport-operations/traffic-statistics, Date of access 01.08.2022
  • https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/download-report/, Date of access 01.08.2022
  • https://www.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.15871-Figure.1., Date of access 01.08.202
  • ICAO (2016). Erişim Tarihi 01.08.2022, ICAO Environmental Report 2016 Aviation And Climate Change-Chapter 7
  • ICAO Climate Adaptation Synthesis Analysis (2018). CAEP WG2 Task O7.0 Climate Adaptation Synthesis Analysis
  • ICAO Climate Change (2020). Caep Aviation And Climate Change Factsheet
  • Jenkinson, L. R., Simpkin, P., Rhodes, D., Jenkison, L. R., & Royce, R. (1999). Civil jet aircraft design (Vol. 338). London, UK: Arnold.
  • Jevrejeva, S., Jackson, L. P., Grinsted, A., Lincke, D., & Marzeion, B. (2018). Flood damage costs under the sea level rise with warming of 1.5 C and 2 C. Environmental Research Letters, 13(7), 074014.
  • Koetse, M. J., & Rietveld, P. (2009). The impact of climate change and weather on transport: An overview of empirical findings. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 14(3), 205-221.
  • Lv, Y., Guo, J., Li, J., Han, Y., Xu, H., Guo, X., ... & Gao, W. (2021). Increased Turbulence in the Eurasian Upper‐Level Jet Stream in Winter: Past and Future. Earth and Space Science, 8(2), e2020EA001556.
  • Myers, N. (2002). Environmental refugees: A growing phenomenon of the 21st century. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 357 (1420), 609–613.
  • Nicholls, R. J., Brown, S., Goodwin, P., Wahl, T., Lowe, J., Solan, M., ... & Merkens, J. L. (2018). Stabilization of global temperature at 1.5 C and 2.0 C: implications for coastal areas. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 376(2119), 20160448.
  • Reimann, L., Vafeidis, A. T., Brown, S., Hinkel, J., & Tol, R. S. (2018). Mediterranean UNESCO World Heritage at risk from coastal flooding and erosion due to sea-level rise. Nature communications, 9(1), 1-11.
  • Sadraey, M. H. (2017). Aircraft performance: an engineering approach. CRC Press.Chapter1-4-7
  • Sharman, R., Tebaldi, C., Wiener, G., & Wolff, J. (2006). An integrated approach to mid-and upper-level turbulence forecasting. Weather and forecasting, 21(3), 268-287.
  • Special Report Global Warming (2022). Date of access 01.08.2022, https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/chapter-3/ - special report: global warming of 1.5 ºc
  • Storer, L. N., Williams, P. D., & Joshi, M. M. (2017). Global response of clear‐air turbulence to climate change. Geophysical Research Letters, 44(19), 9976-9984.
  • Terry, J. P. (2007). Tropical cyclones: climatology and impacts in the South Pacific. Springer Science & Business Media.
  • Titus, J. G., Park, R. A., Leatherman, S. P., Weggel, J. R., Greene, M. S., Mausel, P. W., ... & Yohe, G. (1991). Greenhouse effect and sea level rise: the cost of holding back the sea. Coastal Management, 19(2), 171-204.
  • Wang, G., Munoz-Ferreras, J. M., Gu, C., Li, C., & Gomez-Garcia, R. (2014). Application of linear-frequency-modulated continuous-wave (LFMCW) radars for tracking of vital signs. IEEE transactions on microwave theory and techniques, 62(6), 1387-1399.
  • Wuebbles, D. J., Fahey, D. W., & Hibbard, K. A. (2017). Climate science special report: fourth national climate assessment, volume I.
  • Yesudian, A. N., & Dawson, R. J. (2021). Global analysis of sea level rise risk to airports. Climate Risk Management, 31, 100266.

Küresel Deniz Seviyesindeki Yükseliş Havacılığı Etkiler mi? HAVALİMANLARINDA RCP-"COASTAL PARADOX" TABANLI İNCELEME

Year 2023, Volume: 16 Issue: 2, 948 - 968, 15.06.2023
https://doi.org/10.35674/kent.1189532

Abstract

İklim değişikliği her kıtayı, ülkeyi, şehri ve sektörü etkilemektedir. Bu etkilerin kapsamı, meydana geldikleri süre, küresel ısınmanın hızı ve yapılan önleme eylemleri tarafından belirlenmektedir. İklim değişikliğinden en çok etkilenen sektörlerden biri de havacılık sektörüdür. Havaalanlarının kapanması, havayollarının mevcut rotalarında değişikliğe gitmesi, artan işletme giderleri ve yeni yasal yükümlülüklerin belirlenmesi gibi zorunlu uygulamalara geçilmesi iklim değişikliği sonucunda beklenebilir.

İklim değişikliği kaynaklı meteoroloji olaylarının havacılık sektörüne etkilerinin şu andan itibaren olması öngörülüyor. Fırtınalar ve aşırı sıcaklıklar operasyonel gecikmelere, uçuş iptallerine ve altyapı kesintilerine neden olabilir. Uzun vadede sıcaklık değişimi veya küresel deniz seviyesinin yükselmesi sonucunda , yolcu talebindeki değişiklikler, yeni havacılık merkezlerinin oluşması, mevcut cazibe noktalarının kaybolması ve altyapı hasarları gibi ekonomik faaliyetlerde kademeli ancak daha kalıcı etkiler meydana gelebilir.

Bu çalışmada iklim değişikliği kısıtlamalarının başta havaalanları olmak üzere havacılık sektörü üzerindeki etkileri analiz edilmektedir. Yükselen su seviyelerinin havaalanları üzerindeki etkileri ve geleceğe yönelik öngörülen senaryoları incelenmiştir. Örnek modelleme yoluyla, belirlenen havaalanları istatiksel veriler kullanılarak oluşturulan muhtemel gelecek senaryoları araştırılmıştır. Bu çalışma, gelecekteki küresel deniz seviyesi artışlarını modellemek için “Coastline Paradox” tabanlı aracı kullanır. Çalışmanın bulguları 2050-2200 yılları arasındaki sürece dayanmaktadır. Çalışmada, iklim değişikliğinin havacılık üzerindeki etkileri incelenmiş ve küresel deniz seviyesi yükselmesiyle kullanım dışı kalacak havaalanları tahmin edilmiştir. Çalışmanın amaçlarından biri de havacılık otoritelerini ve kurumlarını bu yıkıcı sonuçlara karşı bilinçlendirmek, gerekli hazırlık ve önlemlere katkıda bulunmaktır. Çalışma, havacılık merkezleri olarak kabul edilen Avrupa ve Amerika'daki havaalanlarına odaklanmıştır.

References

  • Beckley, B. D., Callahan, P. S., Hancock Iii, D. W., Mitchum, G. T., & Ray, R. D. (2017). On the “Cal‐Mode” correction to TOPEX satellite altimetry and its effect on the global mean sea level time series. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 122(11), 8371-8384.
  • Berardelli, J. (2019). How climate change is making hurricanes more dangerous. Yale Climate Connections, 8.
  • Cazenave, A., Meyssignac, B., Ablain, M., Balmaseda, M., Bamber, J., & Contributors, A. (2018). Global Sea-Level Budget 1993-Present. Earth System Science Data, 10, 1551-1590.
  • Church, J. A., & White, N. J. (2011). Sea-level rise from the late 19th to the early 21st century. Surveys in geophysics, 32(4), 585-602.
  • Frederikse, T., Landerer, F., Caron, L., Adhikari, S., Parkes, D., Humphrey, V. W., ... & Wu, Y. H. (2020). The causes of sea-level rise since 1900. Nature, 584(7821), 393-397.
  • Griggs, G. (2020). Coastal airports and rising sea levels. Journal of Coastal Research, 36(5), 1079-1092.
  • https://artsexperiments.withgoogle.com/coastline-, paradox/?mode=map&lat=52.33907801934555&lng=4.806409832976266&zoom=12&alat=52.37299&alng=4.8932&arad=5000 , Erişim tarihi 01.08.2022
  • https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/148494/anticipating-future-sea-levels, Date of Access 01.08.2022
  • https://www.airlines.iata.org/analysis/2050-net-zero-carbon-emissions, Date of Access 01.08.2022
  • https://www.anewjfk.com/, Date of access 01.08.2022
  • https://www.annualreportschiphol.com/trafficreview2019/summary, Date of Access 01.08.2022
  • https://www.artsexperiments.withgoogle.com/coastline-paradox/, Date of access 01.08.2022
  • https://www.coastadapt.com.au/infographics,Date of access, 01.08.2022
  • https://www.flysfo.com/media/facts-statistics/air-traffic-statistics/2019, Date of access 01.08.2022
  • https://www.heathrow.com/company/about-heathrow/performance/airport-operations/traffic-statistics, Date of access 01.08.2022
  • https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/download-report/, Date of access 01.08.2022
  • https://www.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.15871-Figure.1., Date of access 01.08.202
  • ICAO (2016). Erişim Tarihi 01.08.2022, ICAO Environmental Report 2016 Aviation And Climate Change-Chapter 7
  • ICAO Climate Adaptation Synthesis Analysis (2018). CAEP WG2 Task O7.0 Climate Adaptation Synthesis Analysis
  • ICAO Climate Change (2020). Caep Aviation And Climate Change Factsheet
  • Jenkinson, L. R., Simpkin, P., Rhodes, D., Jenkison, L. R., & Royce, R. (1999). Civil jet aircraft design (Vol. 338). London, UK: Arnold.
  • Jevrejeva, S., Jackson, L. P., Grinsted, A., Lincke, D., & Marzeion, B. (2018). Flood damage costs under the sea level rise with warming of 1.5 C and 2 C. Environmental Research Letters, 13(7), 074014.
  • Koetse, M. J., & Rietveld, P. (2009). The impact of climate change and weather on transport: An overview of empirical findings. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 14(3), 205-221.
  • Lv, Y., Guo, J., Li, J., Han, Y., Xu, H., Guo, X., ... & Gao, W. (2021). Increased Turbulence in the Eurasian Upper‐Level Jet Stream in Winter: Past and Future. Earth and Space Science, 8(2), e2020EA001556.
  • Myers, N. (2002). Environmental refugees: A growing phenomenon of the 21st century. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 357 (1420), 609–613.
  • Nicholls, R. J., Brown, S., Goodwin, P., Wahl, T., Lowe, J., Solan, M., ... & Merkens, J. L. (2018). Stabilization of global temperature at 1.5 C and 2.0 C: implications for coastal areas. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 376(2119), 20160448.
  • Reimann, L., Vafeidis, A. T., Brown, S., Hinkel, J., & Tol, R. S. (2018). Mediterranean UNESCO World Heritage at risk from coastal flooding and erosion due to sea-level rise. Nature communications, 9(1), 1-11.
  • Sadraey, M. H. (2017). Aircraft performance: an engineering approach. CRC Press.Chapter1-4-7
  • Sharman, R., Tebaldi, C., Wiener, G., & Wolff, J. (2006). An integrated approach to mid-and upper-level turbulence forecasting. Weather and forecasting, 21(3), 268-287.
  • Special Report Global Warming (2022). Date of access 01.08.2022, https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/chapter-3/ - special report: global warming of 1.5 ºc
  • Storer, L. N., Williams, P. D., & Joshi, M. M. (2017). Global response of clear‐air turbulence to climate change. Geophysical Research Letters, 44(19), 9976-9984.
  • Terry, J. P. (2007). Tropical cyclones: climatology and impacts in the South Pacific. Springer Science & Business Media.
  • Titus, J. G., Park, R. A., Leatherman, S. P., Weggel, J. R., Greene, M. S., Mausel, P. W., ... & Yohe, G. (1991). Greenhouse effect and sea level rise: the cost of holding back the sea. Coastal Management, 19(2), 171-204.
  • Wang, G., Munoz-Ferreras, J. M., Gu, C., Li, C., & Gomez-Garcia, R. (2014). Application of linear-frequency-modulated continuous-wave (LFMCW) radars for tracking of vital signs. IEEE transactions on microwave theory and techniques, 62(6), 1387-1399.
  • Wuebbles, D. J., Fahey, D. W., & Hibbard, K. A. (2017). Climate science special report: fourth national climate assessment, volume I.
  • Yesudian, A. N., & Dawson, R. J. (2021). Global analysis of sea level rise risk to airports. Climate Risk Management, 31, 100266.
There are 36 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Environment and Culture, Urban and Regional Planning, Environmental Engineering, Public Health, Environmental Health
Journal Section All Articles
Authors

Pınar Demir 0000-0001-6490-9959

Didem Rodoplu Şahin 0000-0002-1779-8472

Publication Date June 15, 2023
Submission Date October 14, 2022
Published in Issue Year 2023 Volume: 16 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Demir, P., & Rodoplu Şahin, D. (2023). Küresel Deniz Seviyesindeki Yükseliş Havacılığı Etkiler mi? HAVALİMANLARINDA RCP-"COASTAL PARADOX" TABANLI İNCELEME. Kent Akademisi, 16(2), 948-968. https://doi.org/10.35674/kent.1189532

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