Muş İli ve Çevresinin Depremsellik Parametrelerinin Uzaysal Dağılımı ve Maksimum Magnitüd Değeri

Year 2022, Volume: 12 Issue: 1, 135 - 154, 15.06.2022

Nazlı Ceyla Anadolu Kılıç

https://doi.org/10.31466/kfbd.998195

Abstract

Yapılan çalışmada Muş il merkezli (38.73ºK Enlem ve 41.49ºD Boylam) 200 km yarıçapındaki dairesel alanın depremsellik parametreleri, depremsellik parametrelerinin uzaysal dağılımı ve maksimum magnitüd değeri belirlenmiştir. Bu amaçla 1900-2020 yılları arasında meydana gelen M≥3.0 olan deprem verileri Kandilli Rasathanesi ve Deprem Araştırma Enstitüsü deprem kataloğundan alınmıştır. Depremsellik parametrelerinin belirlenebilmesi ve haritalanabilmesi için çalışma alanı 0.25°Kx0.25°D r=0.25 olacak şekilde 285 alt bölgeye ayrılmıştır. Hesaplama yapılabilen her bir alt alanda Gutenberg-Richter bağıntısındaki “b” katsayısı En Büyük Olasılık Yöntemi kullanılarak, depremsellik parametreleri ise Poisson Modeline göre hesaplanmıştır. Yapılan hesaplamalar sonucunda çalışma alanının 0.60≤b≤0.97 aralığında değişim gösteren nispeten küçük “b” değerleri ile karakterize olduğu görülmüştür. Mw=5.5 ve Mw=6.0 magnitüd değerlerindeki depremlerin tekrarlanma periyotlarının sırası ile 10≤Tr≤290 ve 25≤Tr≤775 aralıklarında değişim gösterdiği belirlenmiştir. Aynı magnitüd değerlerinin 50 ve 100 yıllık zaman dilimleri içerisinde yaratacağı ortalama tehlike oranı değerleri ise yine sırası ile 0.80 ve 0.74 olarak hesaplanmıştır. Çalışma alanının tamamını kapsayacak “mmax” değerinin belirlenebilmesi için yapılan değerlendirmeler sonucunda 7.2≤mmax≤7.3 aralığının olası-güvenilir olduğu bunun için de Kijko-Sellevol-Bayes teorisinin daha uygun olduğu belirlenmiştir.

Keywords

Depremsellik, "b" değeri, Depremsellik Parametreleri, Maksimum Magnitüd Değeri, Muş

Spatial Distribution of the Seismicity Parameters and Maximum Magnitude Value of Muş Province and its Vicinity

Abstract

In the study, the seismicity parameters, spatial distribution of seismicity parameters and maximum magnitude value were determined in a circular area with a 200 km radius, which is centered in Mus (38.73ºN Latitude ve 41.49ºE Longitude). For this purpose, the earthquakes of magnitude M≥3.0 were used, which were taken from Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute’s earthquake catalog, in the period time between 1900-2020. The study area was divided into 285 subregions as 0.25°Nx0.25°E r=0.25 for the determination of seismicity parameters and mapping. For each subregion, which could be calculated, the coefficient “b” in the Gutenberg-Richter was calculated using the maximum likelihood method, seismicity parameters were calculated according to Poisson Method rules. As a result of the calculation, a relatively low value of “b” changing in the range of 0.60≤b≤0.97, was seen. It was determined that the recurrence periods of earthquakes with magnitude values of Mw=5.5 ve Mw=6.0 changing in the range of 10≤Tr≤290 and 25≤Tr≤775, respectively. For the same magnitude values, the average hazard ratio values were calculated as 0,80 and 0.74, respectively in 50 and 100 year time periods. It was determined that the range of 7.2≤mmax≤7.3 was possible-reliable and Kijko-Sellevol-Bayes theory was more suitable, as a result of the evaluations in order to determine the “mmax” value for the whole study region.  

Keywords

Seismicity, "b" value, Seismicity Parameters, Maximum Magnitude Value, Mus

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