GELİR, DÖVİZ KURU, ULAŞIM MALİYETLERİ VE ENFLASYON ŞOKLARININ TÜRKİYE TURİZM GELİRLERİNE ETKİSİ: ARDL–ECM TEMELLİ İNCELEME

Yıl 2025, Sayı: 8, 1 - 21

Erkan Ağaslan

https://doi.org/10.62080/kmfed.1779482

Öz

Turizm, Türkiye’nin en büyük hizmet ihracatı ve önde gelen döviz gelir kaynağı olarak büyümeye ve cari dengeye kritik derecede katkı sunmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’nin turizm gelirleri üzerinde küresel gelir düzeyi, döviz kuru, ulaşım maliyetleri ve enflasyon şoklarının kısa ve uzun dönemli etkileri incelenmiştir. 2015M01–2025M03 dönemine ait aylık verileri kullanılan çalışmada ARDL–ECM yaklaşımı temel alınmıştır. Analiz sonucunda, kısa dönemde küresel gelir artışlarının turizm gelirlerini artırdığı, ancak enflasyon farkı ve USD/TRY kurundaki yükselişlerin gelirleri azalttığı tespit edilmiştir. COVID-19 dönemini temsil eden kukla değişkenin ise hem kısa hem de uzun dönemde güçlü biçimde negatif etkiler yarattığı görülmüştür. Uzun dönem sonuçları, küresel gelir artışlarının turizm gelirlerini desteklediğini, buna karşılık enflasyon farkı ve döviz kuru oynaklıklarının turizm gelirlerini düşürdüğünü göstermektedir. Hata düzeltme katsayısı, sistemin yaklaşık altı ayda uzun dönem dengesine döndüğünü ortaya koymaktadır. Elde edilen bulgular, literatürle uyumlu olup turizm gelirlerinin sürdürülebilirliği açısından fiyat rekabetçiliği ve kur istikrarının kritik önemde olduğunu vurgulamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Turizm gelirleri , ARDL , Markov rejim değişimi , döviz kuru , enflasyon , COVID-19

THE EFFECTS OF INCOME, EXCHANGE RATES, TRANSPORTATION COSTS AND INFLATION SHOCKS ON TÜRKİYE’S TOURISM REVENUES: AN ARDL–ECM BASED ANALYSIS

Öz

Tourism is Turkey's largest service export and a leading source of foreign exchange earnings, contributing significantly to growth and the current account balance. This study examines the short- and long-term effects of global income levels, exchange rates, transportation costs, and inflation shocks on Turkey's tourism revenues. Using monthly data from the period 2015M01–2025M03, the study is based on the ARDL–ECM approach. The analysis found that, in the short term, global income growth increases tourism revenues, but inflation differentials and increases in the USD/TRY exchange rate reduce revenues. The dummy variable representing the COVID-19 period was found to have a strong negative impact in both the short and long term. Long-term results show that global income growth supports tourism revenues, while inflation differentials and exchange rate volatility reduce tourism revenues. The error correction coefficient reveals that the system returns to its long-term equilibrium in approximately six months. The findings are consistent with the literature and emphasize the critical importance of price competitiveness and exchange rate stability for the sustainability of tourism revenues.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Tourism revenues , ARDL , exchange rate , inflation , COVID-19

Kaynakça

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