Determination with Gene Expression Programming of the Relationship Between Socio-Economic Variables and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Turkey

Abstract

One of the most important indicators of economic development is environmental quality. One of the most important sources of environmental pollution and climate change is greenhouse gas emissions. In this work, a new approach based on Gene Expression Programming (GEP) was used to forecast greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions depending on energy consumption, economic development (GDP), and population. The reliability of the GEP model was determined using several statistical indicators. In the relationship between energy consumption-GDP- population and GHG emissions, R2, MAPE, and RMSE values were found as 0.99337, 0.06987, and 7.1355, respectively. Sensitivity analysis seen that energy consumption have the highest effect on greenhouse gas emissions. The results obtained, it is showing that Gene Expression Programming can be successfully used to model greenhouse gas emissions.

Keywords

• Gene expression programming
• greenhouse gas emissions
• energy consumption
• economic development
• population

Türkiye'de Sosyo-Ekonomik Değişkenler ve Sera Gazı Emisyonları Arasındaki İlişkinin Gen İfade Programı ile Belirlenmesi

Abstract

Ekonomik kalkınmanın en önemli göstergelerinden biri çevre kalitesidir. Çevre kirliliği ve iklim değişikliğinin en önemli kaynaklarından biri sera gazı emisyonlarıdır. Bu çalışmada, enerji tüketimi, ekonomik kalkınma (GSYİH) ve nüfusa bağlı olarak sera gazı (GHG) emisyonlarını tahmin etmek için Gen İfade Programlamasına (GEP) dayalı yeni bir yaklaşım kullanılmıştır. GEP modelinin güvenilirliği, çeşitli istatistiksel göstergeler kullanılarak belirlenmiştir. Enerji tüketimi-GSYİH-nüfus ve GHG emisyonları arasındaki ilişkide R2, MAPE ve RMSE değerleri sırasıyla 0.99337, 0.06987 ve 7.1355 olarak bulunmuştur. Duyarlılık analizi sonucunda enerji tüketiminin sera gazı emisyonları üzerinde en yüksek etkiye sahip olduğu görülmüştür. Elde edilen sonuçlar, Gen İfade Programlamanın sera gazı emisyonlarını modellemek için başarılı bir şekilde kullanılabileceğini göstermektedir.

Keywords

• Gen ifade programı
• sera gazı emisyonları
• enerji tüketimi
• ekonomik kalkınma
• nüfus

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