PREBISCH-SINGER HİPOTEZİ ve KÜÇÜK AÇIK EKONOMİ VARSAYIMI

Abstract

Keywords

• -

PREBISCH-SINGER HİPOTEZİ ve KÜÇÜK AÇIK EKONOMİ VARSAYIMI

Abstract

Bu çalışma, birincil malların mamul mallara göre nispi fiyatının zamanla azalış eğilimi içerisinde bulunduğunu öngören Prebisch-Singer Hipotezi ile gelişmekte olan ekonomilere ait dış ticaret hadlerinin dünya piyasalarında dışsal olarak belirlendiğini öngören Küçük Açık Ekonomi Varsayımını ele almaktadır. Türkiye ekonomisinin 1989:1-2004:4 dönemine ait üçer aylık veriler ve bazı zaman serisi yöntemlerinden yararlanılarak şu sonuçlara ulaşılmıştır. 1) Türkiye ekonomisi, net takas dış ticaret hadlerinde uzun dönemli bir bozulma eğilimi yaşamaktadır. 2) Türk dış ticaret hadleri, dünya piyasalarında dışsal olarak belirlenmektedir.

Keywords

• Prebisch-Singer, küçük açık ekonomi, dış ticaret haddi, ihracat, ithalat

References

1. Baldwin, R.S. (1955), “Secular Movements in the Terms of Trade”, American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, 45, ss.259-269.
2. Blattman, C., Hwang, J., Williamson, J.G. (2003), “The Terms of Trade and Economic Growth in the Peripherry 1870-1983”, NBER Working Paper Series, No:9940.
3. Chaudhuri, K. (2000), “Long Run Prices of Primary Commodoties and Oil Prices”, The University of Sydney Working Papers, No:2000-2.
4. Dickey, D.A. and Fuller, W.A. (1979), “Distribution of the Estimators of Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, ss.427-431.
5. Doan, T. (1992), “RATS User’s Manual III”, Estima, Evanston.
6. Granger, C.W.J. (1969), “Investigating Causal Relation by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods”, Econometrica , 37, ss.424-438.
7. Grilli, E.R. and Yang, M.C. (1988), “Primary Commodity Prices, Manufactured Goods Prices, and Terms of Trade of Devoloping Countries: What the Long Run Shows”, World Bank Economic Review, 2, ss.1-48.
8. Kindleberger, C.P. (1958), “The Terms of Trade and Economic Development”, Review of Economics and Statistics Supplement, 40, ss.72-85.

9. Kouparitsas, M.A. (1997), “North-South Terms of Trade: An Empirical Investigation”, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Working Paper Series, Nr.97-5, ss.1-17.
10. MacKinnon, J. G. (1996). "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11, 601-618.
11. Magee, S.P., Kwang, Y.Y., and Nakgyoon, C. (1999), “The United States is a Small Country in World Trade”, Manuscript, University of Texas at Austin.
12. Mendoza, E.G. (1995), “The Terms of Trade, the Real Exchange Rate, and Economic Fluctuations”, International Economic Review, 63(1), ss.101-137.
13. Newey, W. and West, K. (1987), “A Simple Positive Semi Definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix”, Econometrica, 55. ss.703-708.
14. Pamuk, Ş. (1994), “Osmanlı Ekonomisinde Bağımlılık ve Büyüme (1820-1913)”, Türkiye Ekonomik ve Toplumsal Tarih Vakfı Yayını, 2.Baskı, İstanbul.
15. Phillips, P.C.B. and Perron, P. (1988), “Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression”, Biometrika, 75, ss.335-346.
16. Prebisch, R. (1950), “The Economic Development of Latin American and Its Principal Problems”, (Lake Success, NY: United Nations, Department of Economic Affairs), Reprinted in Economic Bulletin for Latin America, 7 (1962), ss.1-22.
17. Sims, C. (1980), “Macroeconomics and Reality”, Econometrica, 48, ss.1-49.
18. Singer, H. W. (1950), “The Distribution of Gains between Investing and Borrowing Countries”, American Economic Review, 40, ss.473-85.
19. Spraos, J. (1980), “The Statistical Debate on the Net Barter Terms of Trade between Primary Commodities and Manufactures”, Economic Journal, 90, ss.107-128.
20. Thirlwall, A.P. and Bergevin, J. (1985), “Trends, Cycles and Asymmetries in the Terms of Trade of Primary Commodoties from Devoloped and Less Devoloped Countries”, World Devolopment, 13(7), ss.805-817.
21. Yamak, R. ve Yamak, N. (1997), “Osmanlı Dönemi Dış Ticaret Hadleri ve PrebischSinger Tezi”, İktisat, İşletme ve Finans, Ağustos 1997, ss.68-78.
22. Zengin, A. (2001), “Reel Döviz Kuru Hareketleri ve Dış Ticaret Fiyatları (Türkiye Ekonomisi Üzerine Ampirik Bulgular)”, C.Ü. İİBF Dergisi, 2(2), ss.27-41.