Bilişsel Yansıma ve Davranışsal Anomaliler

Year 2020, Volume: 22 Issue: 38, 10 - 41, 25.06.2020

Yusuf Polat , Haluk Duman

Abstract

Ekonomi literatürünün ilk dönemlerinden Neo-klasik döneme gelinene kadar sosyal bilimlerin temel araştırma konusu olan beşerin belirli açılardan rasyonel olmadığı ve söz konusu varsayımın bireyin her zaman, her yerde ve her koşulda ekonomik insan (homo economicus) olarak sınırlandırılan karakteristikleri göstermeyebileceği konusu benimsenen bir olgu olarak kabul edilegelmiştir. Neo-Klasik dönemden günümüze gelinene kadar ise özellikle işletme ve iktisat alanlarında yapılan çalışmaların neredeyse tümünde yer alan istatistik ve ekonometri gibi dalların adeta bir dayatması haline gelen bireyin rasyonel olduğu ve ekonomik çıkarlarını düşüneceği varsayımı son 30-40 yıl içinde davranışsal literatürün temel tartışma konusu haline gelmiştir. Bireyin zihninin bilişsel yapısından kaynaklanan ve neredeyse tüm bireylerde gözlemlenebilen sistematik davranışsal yanlıklar (anomali) rasyonalite varsayımının belirli açılardan ihlaline neden olabilmektedir. Bu çalışmada davranışsal finans açısından sıkça görülen yanlıklara ilişkin literatür teorik olarak ele alınmaya çalışılmıştır.

Keywords

Bilişsel Yansıma, Aşırı Güven Yanılgısı, Zihinsel Muhasebe Yanılgısı, Temel Oran Yanılgısı, Üssel Büyüme Yanılgısı

Cognitive Reflection and Behavioral Anomalies

Abstract

From the early period of economic literature to the Neo-classical period, it is accepted that human beings are not rational in certain respects, which is the main research subject of social sciences, and that the assumption in question may not show the characteristics limited as an economic person (homo economicus) at every time, everywhere and under any circumstances. From the Neo-Classical period to the present, the assumption that the individual is rational and his economic interests will become the main topic of discussion in the behavioural literature in the last 30-40 years, which is in almost all studies in the field of business and economics and which has become an imposition of such branches as statistics and econometrics. Systematic behavioural biases (anomalies), which arise from the cognitive structure of the individual's mind and can be observed in almost all individuals, may cause a violation of the assumption of rationality in certain aspects. In this study, the literature related to common biases in terms of behavioural finance has been tried to be examined theoretically. 

Keywords

Cognitive Reflection, Overconfidence Bias, Mental Accounting Bias, Base-Rate Fallacy, Exponential Growth Bias

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