Bilişsel Yansıma ve Davranışsal Anomaliler

Year 2020, Volume: 22 Issue: 38, 10 - 41, 25.06.2020

Yusuf Polat Haluk Duman

Abstract

Ekonomi literatürünün ilk dönemlerinden Neo-klasik döneme gelinene kadar sosyal bilimlerin temel araştırma konusu olan beşerin belirli açılardan rasyonel olmadığı ve söz konusu varsayımın bireyin her zaman, her yerde ve her koşulda ekonomik insan (homo economicus) olarak sınırlandırılan karakteristikleri göstermeyebileceği konusu benimsenen bir olgu olarak kabul edilegelmiştir. Neo-Klasik dönemden günümüze gelinene kadar ise özellikle işletme ve iktisat alanlarında yapılan çalışmaların neredeyse tümünde yer alan istatistik ve ekonometri gibi dalların adeta bir dayatması haline gelen bireyin rasyonel olduğu ve ekonomik çıkarlarını düşüneceği varsayımı son 30-40 yıl içinde davranışsal literatürün temel tartışma konusu haline gelmiştir. Bireyin zihninin bilişsel yapısından kaynaklanan ve neredeyse tüm bireylerde gözlemlenebilen sistematik davranışsal yanlıklar (anomali) rasyonalite varsayımının belirli açılardan ihlaline neden olabilmektedir. Bu çalışmada davranışsal finans açısından sıkça görülen yanlıklara ilişkin literatür teorik olarak ele alınmaya çalışılmıştır.

Keywords

Bilişsel Yansıma, Aşırı Güven Yanılgısı, Zihinsel Muhasebe Yanılgısı, Temel Oran Yanılgısı, Üssel Büyüme Yanılgısı

Cognitive Reflection and Behavioral Anomalies

Abstract

From the early period of economic literature to the Neo-classical period, it is accepted that human beings are not rational in certain respects, which is the main research subject of social sciences, and that the assumption in question may not show the characteristics limited as an economic person (homo economicus) at every time, everywhere and under any circumstances. From the Neo-Classical period to the present, the assumption that the individual is rational and his economic interests will become the main topic of discussion in the behavioural literature in the last 30-40 years, which is in almost all studies in the field of business and economics and which has become an imposition of such branches as statistics and econometrics. Systematic behavioural biases (anomalies), which arise from the cognitive structure of the individual's mind and can be observed in almost all individuals, may cause a violation of the assumption of rationality in certain aspects. In this study, the literature related to common biases in terms of behavioural finance has been tried to be examined theoretically. 

Keywords

Cognitive Reflection, Overconfidence Bias, Mental Accounting Bias, Base-Rate Fallacy, Exponential Growth Bias

References

• Kaynakça
• Abbes, M. B. (2013). Does Overconfidence Bias Explain Volatility During the Global Financial Crisis? Transition Studies Review, 19(3), 291-312.
• Abbes, M. B., Boujelbene, Y., & Bouri, A. (2009). Overconfidence Bias: Explanation of Market Anomalies French Market Case. Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, 4(1), 12-25.
• Agarwal, S., Driscoll, J. C., Gabaix, X., & Laibson, D. (2009). The age of reason: Financial decisions over the life cycle and implications for regulation. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2009(2), 51-117.
• Almenberg, J., & Gerdes, C. (2012). Exponential Growth Bias and Financial Literacy. Applied Economics Letters, 19(17), 1693-1696.
• Arkes, H. R., & Blumer, C. (1985). The Psychology of Sunk Cost. Organizational behavior and human decision processes, 35(1), 124-140.
• Arkes, H. R., Joyner, C. A., Pezzo, M. V., Nash, J. G., Siegel-Jacobs, K., & Stone, E. (1994). The Psychology of Windfall Gains. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 59(3), 331-347.
• Axelsson, S. (2000). The Base-Rate Fallacy and the Difficulty of Intrusion Detection. ACM Transactions on Information and System Security (TISSEC) 3(3), 186-205.
• Baars, B. J. (1986). The Cognitive Revolution in Psychology. New York and London: The Guilford Press.
• Baker, M., Ruback, R. S., & Wurgler, J. (2004). Behavioral Corporate Finance: A Survey (No. w10863). National Bureau of Economic Research, 1-60.
• Baldi, P. L., Iannello, P., Riva, S., & Antonietti, A. (2013). Cognitive Reflection and Socially Biased Decisions. Studia Psychologica, 55(4), 265-271.
• Banks, J., & Oldfield, Z. (2007). Understanding Pensions: Cognitive Function, Numerical Ability and Retirement Saving. Fiscal Studies, 28(2), 143-170.
• Barber, B. M. (2001). Boys Will Be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence and Common Stock Investment. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 116(1), 261-292.
• Barber, B. M., & Odean, T. (1999). The Courage of Misguided Convictions. Financial Analysts Journal, 55(6), 41-55.
• Barbey, A. K., & Sloman, S. A. (2007). Base-Rate Respect: From Ecological Rationality to Dual Processes. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 30(3), 241-254.
• Bar-Hillel, M. (1973). On the Subjective Probability of Compound Events. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 9 (3), 396-406.
• Baron, J. (2000). Thinking and Deciding. Cambridge University Press.
• Beatty, J., & Kahneman, D. (1966). Pupillary Changes in Two Memory Tasks. Psychonomic Science, 5(10), 371-372.
• Benos, A. V. (1998). Aggressiveness and Survival of Overconfident Traders. Journal of Financial Markets, 1(3), 353-383.
• Benzion, U., Shachmurove, Y., & Yagil, J. (2003). How Good is the Exponential Function Discounting Formula?: An Experimental Study. University of Pennsylvania.
• Bergman, O., Ellingsen, T., Johannesson, M., & Svensson, C. (2010). Anchoring and Cognitive Ability. Economics Letters, 107(1), 66-68.
• Birnbaum, M. H. (1983). Base Rates in Bayesian Inference: Signal Detection Analysis of the Cab Problem. The American Journal of Psychology, 85-94.
• Bishop, M. A., & Trout, J. D. (2002). 50 Years of Successful Predictive Modeling Should Be Enough: Lessons for Philosophy of Science. Philosophy of Science, 69(S3), 197-S208.
• Block, R. A., & Harper, D. R. (1991). Overconfidence in Estimation: Testing the Anchoring-and-Adjustment Hypothesis. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 49(2), 188-207.
• Brendl, C. M., Markman, A. B., & Higgins, E. T. (1998). Mental Accounting as Self-Regulation: Representativeness to Goal-Derived Categories. Zeitschrift Fur Sozialpsychologie, 29(2), 89-104.
• Brocas, I., & Carrillo, J. D. (2008). The Brain as a Hierarchical Organization. American Economic Review, 98(4), 1312-1346.
• Busenitz, L. W., & Barney, J. B. (1997). Differences between Entrepreneurs and Managers in Large Organizations: Biases and Heuristics in Strategic Decision-Making. Journal of Business Venturing, 12(1), 9-30.
• Camerer, C., Loewenstein, G., & Prelec, D. (2005). Neuroeconomics: How Neuroscience Can Inform Economics. Journal of Economic Literature, 43(1), 9-64.
• Campitelli, G., & Gerrans, P. (2014). Does the Cognitive Reflection Test Measure Cognitive Reflection? A Mathematical Modeling Approach. Memory & Cognition, 42(3), 434-447.
• Campitelli, G., & Labollita, M. (2010). Correlations of Cognitive Reflection with Judgments and Choices. Judgment and Decision Making, 5(3), 182-191.
• Chatterjee, S., Heath, T. B., & Min, J. (2009). The Susceptibility of Mental Accounting Principles to Evaluation Mode Effects. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 22(2), 120-137.
• Cheema, A., & Soman, D. (2006). Malleable Mental Accounting: The Effect of Flexibility on the Justification of Attractive Spending and Consumption Decisions. Journal of Consumer Psychology, 16(1), 33-44.
• Chen, L., Kök, A. G., & Tong, J. D. (2013). The Effect of Payment Schemes on Inventory Decisions. The Role of mental accounting. Management Science, 59(2), 436-451.
• Chira, I., Adams, M., & Thornton, B. (2008). Behavioral bias within the decision making process. Journal of Business & Economics Research 6(8), 11-20.
• Chuang, W. I., & Lee, B. S. (2006). An empirical evaluation of the overconfidence hypothesis. Journal of Banking & Finance, 30(9), 2489-2515.
• Cokely, E. T., & Kelley, C. M. (2009). Cognitive abilities and superior decision making under risk: A protocol analysis and process model evaluation. Judgment and Decision Making, 4(1), 20-33.
• Davidson, D., & Hirtle, S. C. (1990). Effects of nondiscrepant and discrepant information on the use of base rates. The American Journal of Psychology, 343-357.
• De Bock, D., Van Dooren, W., Janssens, D., & Verschaffel, L. (2002). Improper use of linear reasoning: An in-depth study of the nature and the irresistibility of secondary school students' errors. Educational studies in mathematics, 50(3), 311-334.
• DellaVigna, S. (2009). Psychology and economics: Evidence from the field. Journal of Economic literature, 47(2), 315-72.
• Eisenstein, E., & Hoch, S. (2005). Intuitive compounding: Framing, temporal perspective and expertise. Working paper, Johnson Graduate School of Management, Cornell University.
• Eser, R., & Toingonbaeva, D. (2011). Psikoloji ve İktisadın Birleşimi Olarak, Davranışsal İktisat. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 287‐321.
• Evans, D. A. (2006). Subject perceptions of confidence and predictive validity in financial information cues. The Journal of Behavioral Finance, 7(1), 12-28.
• Fischhoff, B., & Beyth, R. (1975). I knew it would happen: Remembered probabilities of once—future things. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 13(1, 1-16.
• Fischhoff, B., Slovic, P., & Lichtenstein, S. (1977). Knowing with certainty: The appropriateness of extreme confidence. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human perception and performance, 3(4), 552-564.
• Forbes, D. P. (2005). Are some entrepreneurs more overconfident than others? Journal of business venturing, 20(5), 623-640.
• Frederick, S. (2005). Cognitive Reflection and Decision Making. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 19(4), 25-42.
• Gervais, S., & Odean, T. (2001). Learning to be overconfident. The Review of Financial Studies 14(1), 1-27.
• Gervais, S., Heaton, J. B., & Odean, T. (2011). Overconfidence, compensation contracts, and capital budgeting. The Journal of Finance, 66(5), 1735-1777.
• Gilboa, I., & Gilboa-Schechtman, E. (2001). Mental accounting and the absentminded driver. Foerder Institut for Economic Research. Faculty of Social Sciences. Tel-Aviv University, 1-14.
• Gilovich, T. (1991). How We Know What Isn’t So. New York: Simon and Schuster.
• Gilovich, T., Griffin, D., & Kahneman, D. (2002). Heuristics and biases: The psychology of intuitive judgment. Cambridge university press.
• Glaser, M., & Weber, M. (2007). Overconfidence and trading volume. The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, 32(1), 1-36.
• Glaser, M., Langer, T., & Weber, M. (2005). Overconfidence of professionals and lay men: individual differences within and between tasks? Universit¨at Mannheim No. 05-25, 1-43.
• Goda, G. S., Levy, M. R., Manchester, C. F., Sojourner, A., & Tasoff, J. (2014). The role of exponential-growth bias and present bias in retirement saving decisions. Working Paper.
• Goda, G. S., Manchester, C. F., & Sojourner, A. (2012). What will my account really be worth? An experiment on exponential growth bias and retirement saving. (No. w17927). National Bureau of Economic Research.
• Gonzalez, N., & Svenson, O. (2014). Growth and Decline of Assets: On Biased Judgments of Asset Accumulation and Investment Decisions. Polish Psychological Bulletin, 45(1), 29-35.
• Gourville, J. T., & Soman, D. (1998). Payment depreciation: The behavioral effects of temporally separating payments from consumption. Journal of Consumer Research, 25(2), 160-174.
• Griffin, D., & Tversky, A. (1992). The weighing of evidence and the determinants of confidence. Cognitive psychology, 24(3), 411-435.
• Hanson, J. D., & Kysar, D. A. (1999). Taking behavioralism seriously: some evidence of market manipulation. Harvard Law Review, 1420-1572.
• Hayta, A. B. (2014). Bireysel Yatırımcıların Finansal Risk Algısına Etki Eden Psikolojik Önyargılar. Türkiye Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 183(183), 329-352.
• Heath, C., & Soll, J. B. (1996). Mental budgeting and consumer decisions. Journal of consumer research, 23(1), 40-52.
• Heath, T. B., Chatterjee, S., & France, K. R. (1995). Mental accounting and changes in price: The frame dependence of reference dependence. Journal of Consumer Research, 22(1), 90-97.
• Henderson, P. W., & Peterson, R. A. (1992). Mental accounting and categorization. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 51(1), 92-117.
• Henrion, M., & Fischhoff, B. (1986). Assessing uncertainty in physical constants. American Journal of Physics, 54(9), 791-798.
• Hess, E. H. (1965). Attitude and Pupil Size. Scientific american, 212(4), 46-55.
• Hietala, P., Kaplan, S. N., & Robinson, D. T. (2002). What is the price of hubris? Using takeover battles to infer overpayments and synergies (No. w9264. National Bureau of Economic Research, 1-42.
• Hilary, G., & Menzly, L. (2006). Does past success lead analysts to become overconfident? Management science, 52(4), 489-500.
• Hoppe, E. I., & Kusterer, D. J. (2011). "Behavioral biases and cognitive reflection. Economics Letters 110 (2), 97-100.
• Hsee, C. K. (1998). Less is better: When low-value options are valued more highly than high-value options. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, Vol. 11, 107-121.
• Hsieh, K. L. (2011). Employing a recommendation expert system based on mental accounting and artificial neural networks into mining business intelligence for study abroad’s P/S recommendations. Expert Systems with Applications 38(12), 14376-14381.
• Johnson, D. D., & Fowler, J. H. (2011). The evolution of overconfidence. Nature, 477 (7364), 317-320.
• Jolls, C. (1998). Behavioral economics analysis of redistributive legal rules. Vanderbilt Law Review 51, 1653-1677.
• Kahneman, D. (2003). A perspective on judgment and choice: mapping bounded rationality. American psychologist, 58(9), 697-720.
• Kahneman, D. (2011). Hızlı ve Yavaş Düşünme. Varlık Yayınevi.
• Kahneman, D., & Frederick, S. (2002). Representativeness Revisited: Attribute Substitution in Intuitive Judgment. Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment, 49, 81, 1-30.
• Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1972). Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness. Cognitive psychology, 3(3), 430-454.
• Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1977). Intuitive prediction: Biases and corrective procedures. Decisions and Designs Inc McLean VA, 1-44.
• Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1983). Can irrationality be intelligently discussed? Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 6(3), 509-510.
• Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1984). Choices, values, and frames. American psychologist, 39(4), 341-350.
• Keren, G. (1983). Cultural differences in the misperception of exponential growth. Attention, Perception, & Psychophysics, 34(3), 289-293.
• Kilborn, J. J. (2010). Behavioral economics, overindebtedness & comparative consumer bankruptcy: Searching for causes and evaluating solutions. Emory Bankruptcy Development Journal, 13-46.
• Klayman, J., Soll, J. B., González-Vallejo, C., & Barlas, S. (1999). Overconfidence: It depends on how, what, and whom you ask. Organizational behavior and human decision processes 79 (3), 216-247.
• Laughhunn, D., & Payne, J. (1984). The impact of sunk outcomes on risky choice behaviour. INFOR: Information Systems and Operational Research, 22(2), 155-181.
• Levav, J., & McGraw, A. P. (2009). Emotional accounting: How feelings about money influence consumer choice. Journal of Marketing Research, 46(1), 66-80.
• Li, S. L., Chen, Y. W., Bai, X. W., Ren, X. P., Zheng, R., & Liu, H. (2010). Can Overconfidence be Debiased by Low‐Probability/High‐Consequence Events? Risk Analysis: An International Journal, 30(4), 699-707.
• Liberali, J. M., Reyna, V. F., Furlan, S., Stein, L. M., & Pardo, S. T. (2012). Individual differences in numeracy and cognitive reflection, with implications for biases and fallacies in probability judgment. Journal of behavioral decision making, 25(4), 361-381.
• Lichtenstein, S., & Fischhoff, B. (1977). Do those who know more also know more about how much they know? Organizational behavior and human performance, 20(2), 159-183.
• Lusardi, A., & Mitchell, O. S. (2007). Financial literacy and retirement planning: New evidence from the Rand American Life Panel.
• Malmendier, U., & Tate, G. (2005). CEO overconfidence and corporate investment. The journal of finance, 60(6), 2661-2700.
• Malmendier, U., & Tate, G. (2008). Who makes acquisitions? CEO overconfidence and the market's reaction. Journal of financial Economics, 89(1), 20-43.
• McGraw, A. P. (2004). The affective costs of overconfidence. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 17(4), 281-295.
• McKenzie, C. R., & Liersch, M. J. (2011). Misunderstanding savings growth: Implications for retirement savings behavior. Journal of Marketing Research, 48(SPL), 1-13.
• McKenzie, C. R., Liersch, M. J., & Yaniv, I. (2008). Overconfidence in interval estimates: What does expertise buy you? Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 107(2), 179-191.
• Milkman, K. L., & Beshears, J. (2009). Mental accounting and small windfalls: Evidence from an online grocer. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 71(2), 384-394.
• Miller, D. T., & Ross, M. (1975). Self-serving biases in the attribution of causality. Fact or fiction. Psychological bulletin, 82(2), 213-225.
• Moore, D. A., & Healy, P. J. (2008). The trouble with overconfidence. Psychological review, 115 (2), 1-76.
• Murphy, A. H., & Winkler, R. L. (1977). Reliability of subjective probability forecasts of precipitation and temperature. pplied Statistics,, 41-47.
• Murphy, A. H., & Winkler, R. L. (1982). Subjective probabilistic tornado forecasts: Some experimental results. Monthly Weather Review, 110(9), 1288-1297.
• Nilsson, H., & Andersson, P. (2010). Making the seemingly impossible appear possible: Effects of conjunction fallacies in evaluations of bets on football games. Journal of Economic Psychology, 31(2), 172-180.
• Nisbett, R. E., & Borgida, E. (1975). Attribution and the psychology of prediction. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 32 (5), 932-943.
• Nisbett, R. E., & Wilson, T. D. (1977). Telling more than we can know: Verbal reports on mental processes. Psychological review, 84(3), 231-259.
• Oechssler, J., Roider, A., & Schmitz, P. W. (2009). Cognitive abilities and behavioral biases. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 72(1), 147-152.
• Prelec, D., & Loewenstein, G. (1998). The red and the black: Mental accounting of savings and debt. Marketing science, 17(1), 4-28.
• Rajagopal, P., & Rha, J. Y. (2009). The mental accounting of time. Journal of Economic Psychology, 30(5), 772-781.
• Reinholtz, N., Bartels, D. M., & Parker, J. R. (2015). On the mental accounting of restricted-use funds: How gift cards change what people purchase. Journal of Consumer Research, 42(4), 596-614.
• Roll, R. (1986). The hubris hypothesis of corporate takeovers. Journal of business, 197-216.
• Rothman, J., & Eckstein, J. (2014). Diving For Hidden Treasures: Finding The Real Value in Your Project Portfolio. Practical Ink.
• Russell, S., & Norvig, P. (1995). A modern approach. Artificial Intelligence. Prentice-Hall, Egnlewood Cliffs, Prentice-Hall, Inc., Upper Saddle River, NJ.
• Shefrin, H. M., & Thaler, R. H. (1988). The behavioral life‐cycle hypothesis. Economic inquiry, 26(4), 609-643.
• Sheikh, M. F., & Riaz, K. (2012). Overconfidence Bias, Trading Volume and Returns Volatility: Evidence from Pakistan. World Applied Science Journal, 18(12), 1737-1748.
• Shtulman, A., & McCallum, K. (2014). Cognitive reflection predicts science understanding. In Proceedings of the Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society (Vol. 36, No. 36), 2937-2942.
• Simons, D. J. (2010). Monkeying around with the Gorillas in our Midst: Familiarity with an Inattentional-Blindness Task Does Not Improve the Detection of Unexpected Events. i-Perception, 1(1), 3-6.
• Singh, R., Yen, N. S., Onglatco, M. L., Bhatnagar, D., & Gupta, M. (1995). Cross-national differences in overconfidence. Asian Journal of Psychology, 1(2), 63-69.
• Sirota, M., & Juanchich, M. (2011). Role of numeracy and cognitive reflection in Bayesian reasoning with natural frequencies. Studia Psychologica, 53(2), 151-161.
• Soll, J. B., Keeney, R. L., & Larrick, R. P. (2013). Consumer misunderstanding of credit card use, payments, and debt: causes and solutions. Journal of Public Policy & Marketing, 32(1), 66-81.
• Song, C. (2013). Financial Illiteracy and Pension Contributions: A Field Experiment on Compound Interest in China. National University of Singapore. Department of Economics Working Paper. Singapore: National University of Singapore.
• Stango, V., & Zinman, J. (2008). The price is not right (not even on average): Exponential growth bias, present-biased perceptions and household finance. Working paper, Dartmouth College. Hanover, NH: Dartmouth College.
• Stango, V., & Zinman, J. (2009). Exponential growth bias and household finance. The Journal of Finance, 64(6), 2807-2849.
• Stanovich, K. E., & West, R. F. (2000). Individual differences in reasoning: Implications for the rationality debate? Behavioral and brain sciences, 23(5), 645-665.
• Stanovich, K. E., & West, R. F. (2008). On the relative independence of thinking biases and cognitive ability. Journal of personality and social psychology, 94(4), 672-695.
• Taleb, N. (2010). The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. New York: Random House Trade Paperback.
• Terzioğlu, A. (1974). Gazneliler Devrinin Büyük Türk Alimi Al-Bîrûnî (973-1051). Haseki Tıp Bülteni ki Tıp Bülteni, Ayrı Baskı 12(3).
• Tetlock, P. E. (2005). Expert political judgment: How good is it? How can we know? Princeton University Press.
• Thaler, R. (1980). Toward a positive theory of consumer choice. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 1(1), 39-60.
• Thaler, R. (1985). Mental accounting and consumer choice. Marketing science, 4(3), 199-214.
• Thaler, R. (1999). Mental accounting matters. Journal of Behavioral decision making, 12(3), 183-203.
• Thaler, R. H., & Johnson, E. J. (1990). Gambling with the house money and trying to break even: The effects of prior outcomes on risky choice. Management science, 36(6), 643-660.
• Thaler, R. H., & Shefrin, H. M. (1981). An economic theory of self-control. Journal of political Economy, 89(2), 392-406.
• Timmers, H., & Wagenaar, W. A. (1977). Inverse statistics and misperception of exponential growth. Attention,Perception, & Psychophysics, 21(6), 558-562.
• Toplak, M. E., West, R. F., & Stanovich, K. E. (2011). The Cognitive Reflection Test as a predictor of performance on heuristics-and-biases tasks. Memory & cognition, 39(7), 1275-1289.
• Toplak, M. E., West, R. F., & Stanovich, K. E. (2014). Assessing miserly information processing: An expansion of the Cognitive Reflection Test. Thinking & Reasoning, 20(2), 147-168.
• Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Science, 185(4157), 1124-1131.
• Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1975). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. In Utility, probability, and human decision making. Springer Netherlands, 141-162.
• Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1981). Evidential impact of base rates. No. TR-4. STANFORD UNIV CA DEPT OF PSYCHOLOGY,, 1-29.
• Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1985). The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice. In Environmental Impact assessment, technology assessment, and risk analysis. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, 107-129.