First Period Effect of Covid-19 on International Aviation Tourism

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 25 Sayı: 45, 808 - 825, 29.12.2023

Ferhat Pehlivanoğlu , Murat Emikönel , Muhammet Rıdvan İnce

Öz

The rapid spread of the coronavirus pandemic on a global scale has led to international travel restrictions and significantly affected the aviation and tourism sectors, leading to job losses. Considering this situation, this study examines the change in international air transportation and tourism sectors during the pandemic period and constructs a threshold autoregressive (TAR) model based on data from 38 countries. According to the findings of the study, the number of coronavirus cases is statistically significant in regimes 2, 3 and 4, and when the number of coronavirus cases increases by one unit, the number of flights in these regimes increases by 0.03, 0.01 and 0.02 units, respectively. The number of coronavirus deaths is statistically significant in regimes 2, 4 and 5, and when the number of coronavirus deaths increases by one unit, the number of flights in these regimes decreases by 1.26, 2.20 and 2.52 units, respectively.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Coronavirus, Aviation Tourism, Economic Crisis

Uluslararası Havacılık Turizminde Covid-19 İlk Dönem Etkisi

Öz

Koronavirüs salgınının küresel ölçekte çok hızlı bir şekilde yayılması uluslararası seyahat kısıtlamalarını beraberinde getirmiş ve havacılık ve turizm sektörlerini önemli ölçüde etkileyerek iş kayıplarına yol açmıştır. Bu durum göz önünde bulundurularak, çalışmada, pandemi döneminde uluslararası hava taşımacılığındaki ve turizm sektöründeki değişim incelenmiş olup 38 ülke verisi kapsamında eşik otoregresif (TAR) modeli kurulmuştur. Çalışmadan elde edilen bulgulara göre, koronavirüs vaka sayısı 2., 3. ve 4. rejimlerde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı olup, koronavirüs vaka sayısı bir birim arttığında bu rejimlerde uçuş sayısı sırasıyla 0,03, 0,01 ve 0,02 birim artmaktadır. Koronavirüs ölüm sayısı 2., 4. ve 5. rejimlerde istatistiksel olarak anlamlıdır ve koronavirüs ölüm sayısı bir birim arttığında, bu rejimlerde uçuş sayıları sırasıyla 1,26, 2,20 ve 2,52 birim azalmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Koronavirüs, Turizm, Ekonomik Kriz, Havacılık

Kaynakça

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