İmalat Sanayii Toplam Dolaylı Arz ve Kâr Fonksiyonlarının Modellemesi ve Tahmini

Abstract

Bu çalışmada imalat sanayi toplam arz ve kâr eğrilerinin mal ve faktör fiyatları ile teknoloji seviyesinin bir fonksiyonu olarak elde edilebileceği gösterilmiştir. Ulaşılan imalat sanayii toplam dolaylı arz ve kâr eğrileri tahmin edilmiş ve değerlendirmelerde bulunulmuştur. Gerek korelasyon analizi sonuçları gerekse model tahmin sonuçları imalat sanayii toplam arz ve kârı ile teknoloji seviyesinin, mal ve faktör fiyatlarının yakın ilişkili olduğunu göstermiştir. Tahmin edilen modellerin belirlilik katsayıları ve F istatistikleri anlamlı bulunmuştur. Dolayısıyla, alternatif imalat sanayii üretimi ve kârı fiziki üretim faktörleri yerine sözü edilen değişkenlerle dolaylı olarak açıklanabileceği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Model1’e göre ortalama mal fiyatı %1 artınca imalat sanayi arzı % 0.129, Model2’ye göre kârın ortalama mal fiyatı %1 artınca imalat sanayi kârı % 0.096 artar. ARGE’nin GSYH payı %1 artınca imalat sanayi arzı %0.499, kârı da % 0.222 kadar artar. Bütün değişkelerde %1’lik bir artışın imalat sanayii arzını toplamda %1.86, kârını da % 1.209 kadar artırdığı bulunmuştur.

Keywords

• imalat sanayii
• arz
• kar
• model türetme

Modeling and Estimation of Indirect Manufacturing Agregate Supply and Profit Functions

Abstract

In this study, it has been shown that the total supply and profit curves of the manufacturing industry can be obtained as a function of commodity and factor prices and technology level. The manufacting agregate indirect supply and profit curves reached were estimated and evaluations were made. Both correlation analysis results and model estimation results have shown that the total supply and profit of the manufacturing industry, the level of technology, and commodity and factor prices are closely related. The coefficients of determination and F statistics of the estimated models were found to be significant. Therefore, it has been concluded that alternative manufacturing industry production and profit can be indirectly explained by the mentioned variables instead of physical production factors. According to Model1, when the average price of goods increases by 1%, the manufacturing industry supply increases by 0.129%, and according to Model2, when the average price of goods increases by 1%, the manufacturing industry profit increases by 0.096%. When the share of R&D in GDP increases by 1%, the manufacturing industry supply increases by 0.499% and its profit increases by 0.222%. It has been found that a 1% increase in all variables increases the manufacturing industry supply by 1.86% in total and its profits by 1.209%.

Keywords

• manufacturing
• supply
• profit
• estimation
• model deduction

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