Research Article

Ballot Completion in Türkiye’s Concurrent Presidential and Parliamentary Elections: A Comparison of 2018 and 2023

Volume: 10 August 31, 2026

Ballot Completion in Türkiye’s Concurrent Presidential and Parliamentary Elections: A Comparison of 2018 and 2023

Abstract

This article examines parliamentary ballot drop-off in Türkiye’s concurrent presidential and parliamentary elections of 24 June 2018 and 14 May 2023. Drop-off is defined as the non-negative province-level shortfall in parliamentary ballots submitted relative to presidential ballots submitted, measured across all 81 provinces from official Supreme Election Council statistics. Treating presidential ballot submission as a same-day benchmark isolates an aggregate within-election dimension of ballot-count correspondence that conventional turnout measures do not reveal. Direct comparisons of the 2018 and 2023 provincial distributions are combined with OLS models of 2023 drop-off conditional on its 2018 level and pre-period political geography, and with analyses of the untruncated signed ballot-count gap. Mean benchmark drop-off fell from 0.0231% of registered voters in 2018 to 0.0046% in 2023, dispersion and upper-tail values contracted substantially, and the signed gap shifted from a predominantly positive pattern toward one closely centered on zero. Alliance-partner exposure in 2018 is associated with lower drop-off in 2023, and the association survives signed-gap, party-decomposition, leave-one-out and permutation checks, while earthquake-affected provinces display somewhat higher conditional drop-off. Change-score models, however, show no larger reductions where alliance partners were stronger. These province-level associations should not be read as causal or individual-level effects.

Keywords

electoral participation, concurrent elections, ballot completion, parliamentary ballot drop-off, electoral geography

Ethical Statement

This study uses publicly available aggregate election statistics published by the Supreme Election Council of Türkiye. It involves no human participants, and informed consent was therefore not required.

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APA
Topçuoğlu, E. (2026). Ballot Completion in Türkiye’s Concurrent Presidential and Parliamentary Elections: A Comparison of 2018 and 2023. Lectio Socialis, 10. https://doi.org/10.47478/lectio.1938502
AMA
1.Topçuoğlu E. Ballot Completion in Türkiye’s Concurrent Presidential and Parliamentary Elections: A Comparison of 2018 and 2023. Lectio. 2026;10. doi:10.47478/lectio.1938502
Chicago
Topçuoğlu, Erdi. 2026. “Ballot Completion in Türkiye’s Concurrent Presidential and Parliamentary Elections: A Comparison of 2018 and 2023”. Lectio Socialis 10 (August). https://doi.org/10.47478/lectio.1938502.
EndNote
Topçuoğlu E (August 1, 2026) Ballot Completion in Türkiye’s Concurrent Presidential and Parliamentary Elections: A Comparison of 2018 and 2023. Lectio Socialis 10
IEEE
[1]E. Topçuoğlu, “Ballot Completion in Türkiye’s Concurrent Presidential and Parliamentary Elections: A Comparison of 2018 and 2023”, Lectio, vol. 10, Aug. 2026, doi: 10.47478/lectio.1938502.
ISNAD
Topçuoğlu, Erdi. “Ballot Completion in Türkiye’s Concurrent Presidential and Parliamentary Elections: A Comparison of 2018 and 2023”. Lectio Socialis 10 (August 1, 2026). https://doi.org/10.47478/lectio.1938502.
JAMA
1.Topçuoğlu E. Ballot Completion in Türkiye’s Concurrent Presidential and Parliamentary Elections: A Comparison of 2018 and 2023. Lectio. 2026;10. doi:10.47478/lectio.1938502.
MLA
Topçuoğlu, Erdi. “Ballot Completion in Türkiye’s Concurrent Presidential and Parliamentary Elections: A Comparison of 2018 and 2023”. Lectio Socialis, vol. 10, Aug. 2026, doi:10.47478/lectio.1938502.
Vancouver
1.Erdi Topçuoğlu. Ballot Completion in Türkiye’s Concurrent Presidential and Parliamentary Elections: A Comparison of 2018 and 2023. Lectio. 2026 Aug. 1;10. doi:10.47478/lectio.1938502