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Unraveling the Nagorno-Karabakh Conundrum: Deciphering Russia’s Southern Caucasus Strategy

Year 2024, Volume: 8 Issue: 1, 1 - 16, 29.01.2024
https://doi.org/10.47478/lectio.1347923

Abstract

Following the Nagorno-Karabakh War, a ceasefire agreement was signed by Azerbaijan and Armenia. However, the path towards a comprehensive peace accord still needs to be solved with some challenges. The unresolved status of Nagorno-Karabakh and the fate of its Armenian inhabitants remain critical points of contention. Additionally, the difficulties of Armenian Prime Minister Nicol Pashinyan in executing provisions related to the proposed transportation corridors outlined in the Ceasefire Pact add another layer of discord. External actors further complicated this situation. Armenia’s domestic opposition and Iran’s strategic ambitions within the region played significant roles. Conversely, Russia has taken a central role in overseeing peace negotiations and advancing its interests in the Southern Caucasus. This article delves into the entrenched disputes between Azerbaijan and Armenia and examines the potential trajectory of their relations. Moreover, it provides insights into Russia’s intricate agenda, which shapes the evolving dynamics of the Southern Caucasus region. In essence, this study analyzes the intricate web of challenges, interests, and influences that intersect in this geopolitical landscape, shedding light on the intricate interplay between internal and external factors.

References

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  • RFE/RL. (2022, November 10). Armenia Proposes Demilitarized Zone Around Nagorno-Karabakh. Radio Free Europe. Retrieved from https://www.rferl.org/a/armenia-proposes-demilitarized-zone-nagorno-karabakh/32124504.html
  • Rozanskij, V. (2022, October 13). A new geography of war looms in the Caucasus. Asia News. Retrieved from https://www.asianews.it/news-en/A-new-geography-of-war-looms-in-the-Caucasus-56868.html
  • Shafiyev, F., & Huseynov, V. (2022, September 19). Is the Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Process Dead? The National Interest. Retrieved from https://nationalinterest.org/feature/armenia-azerbaijan-peace-process-dead-204845
  • Sözcü. (2022, October 31). Aliyev’den Putin’e: Zamanı geldi. Sözcü. Retrieved from https://www.sozcu.com.tr/2022/dunya/aliyevden-putine-zamani-geldi-7452585/
  • Taştekin, F. (2022a). Ermenistan’la barış nasıl yapılmaz? Al-Monitor. Retrieved from https://www.al-monitor.com/tr/originals/2022/10/turkeys-stance-complicates-potential-peace-between-armenia-azerbaijan
  • Taştekin, F. (2022b). Barışı beklerken savaşa uyanmak. Gazete Duvar. Retrieved from https://www.gazeteduvar.com.tr/barisi-beklerken-savasa-uyanmak-makale-1581228
  • US Energy Information Administration. (2015). Caspian Sea. Retrieved from https://www.eia.gov/international/analysis/regions-of-interest/Caspian_Sea
Year 2024, Volume: 8 Issue: 1, 1 - 16, 29.01.2024
https://doi.org/10.47478/lectio.1347923

Abstract

References

  • Blank, S. (2022, September 20). Armenia Must Build the Zangezur Corridor. The National Interest. Retrieved from https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/armenia-must-build-zangezur-corridor-204894
  • Bodner, M. (2016). Russia Emerges as Winner in Arms Race Between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The Moscow Times. Retrieved from https://archive.md/20200805210327/https:/www.themoscowtimes.com/2016/11/21/russias-answer-to-nagorno-karabakh-mutually-assured-destruction-a56224#selection-443.0-446.0
  • Ercan, S. (2023). 2022’de Azerbaycan-Ermenistan Barış Sürecinde Neler Yaşandı ve 2023’de Neler Yaşanacak? Stratejik Savunma.
  • Gasparyan, A. & Sahiounie, S. (2022, September 9). Nagorno-Karabakh is not the property of the elected elite to be surrendered, Interview with Abraham Gasparyan. Global Research. Retrieved from https://www.globalresearch.ca/nagorno-karabakh-not-property-elected-elite-surrendered-interview-abraham-gasparyan/5793893
  • Huseynov, V. (2022, October 26). Is Azerbaijan Hurtling Toward War with Iran and Armenia? The National Interest. Retrieved from https://nationalinterest.org/feature/azerbaijan-hurtling-toward-war-iran-and-armenia-205534
  • Konuralp, E. (2022). Zengezur Koridoru’nun Bölgesel Kalkinma ve Ekonomik Büyümede Stratejik Önemi Çalıştay Raporu. Serhat Kalkınma Ajansı.
  • Korteweg, R. (2018). Energy as a tool of foreign policy of authoritarian states, in particular Russia. Policy Department for External Relations Directorate General for External Policies of the Union.
  • Korybko, A. (2022, September 15). Analyzing Azerbaijan’s “Special Military Operation” Against Armenia. One World. Retrieved from https://korybko.substack.com/p/analyzing-azerbaijans-special-military
  • Korybko, A. (2022, September 21). Could Armenia Really Ditch the CSTO Sometime Soon? One World. Retrieved from https://korybko.substack.com/p/could-armenia-really-ditch-the-csto?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2
  • Kremlin. (2020). Replies to media questions on developments in Nagorno-Karabakh. President of Russia. Retrieved from http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/64431
  • Makili-Aliyev, K. M. (2020, November 21). The True Source of Troubles Behind the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict. The National Interest. Retrieved from https://nationalinterest.org/feature/true-source-troubles-behind-nagorno-karabakh-conflict-172949
  • Martin, W. (2022, December 5). Is Armenia Finally Turning Against Russia? The National Interest. Retrieved from https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/armenia-finally-turning-against-russia-205985
  • News. (2022a). Baku voices its conditions for 'peace' with Armenia. News.am. Retrieved from https://news.am/eng/news/691322.html
  • News. (2022b). Charles Michel: At meeting with Macron, Pashinyan and Aliyev we will discuss promotion of sustainable peace. News.am. Retrieved from https://news.am/eng/news/723845.html
  • Ottaviani, M. (2022, April 4). Azerbaijan to follow Turkey’s Ramadan distancing itself from Moscow. Asia News. Retrieved from https://www.asianews.it/news-en/Azerbaijan-to-follow-Turkey%E2%80%99s-Ramadan-distancing-tself-from-Moscow-55510.html
  • Papian, A. (2022, June 6). Armenia's Protests Mask the Reality of Russian Influence. The National Interest. Retrieved from https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/armenias-protests-mask-reality-russian-influence-202845
  • Popescu, N. (2020, November 11). Russia’s Win in Nagorno-Karabakh is EU’s Loss. Politico. Retrieved from https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-win-eu-loss-in-nagorno-karabakh/
  • Quinn, S. (2022, October 28). “Color Revolutions,” Major Power Rivalries in Eurasia, Battle for Strategic Supremacy. Global Research. Retrieved from https://www.globalresearch.ca/major-power-rivalries-eurasia-battle-strategic-supremacy/5797404
  • RFE/RL. (2021). Armenian Parliament Approves Changes To Electoral System. Radio Free Europe. Retrieved from https://www.rferl.org/a/armenian-parliament-approves-electoral-system-changes/31182505.html
  • RFE/RL. (2022, November 9). Direct Dialogue Between Armenia, Azerbaijan 'Key' To Peace, U.S. Says. Radio Free Europe. Retrieved from https://www.rferl.org/a/armenia-azerbaijan-us-talks/32122422.html
  • RFE/RL. (2022, November 10). Armenia Proposes Demilitarized Zone Around Nagorno-Karabakh. Radio Free Europe. Retrieved from https://www.rferl.org/a/armenia-proposes-demilitarized-zone-nagorno-karabakh/32124504.html
  • Rozanskij, V. (2022, October 13). A new geography of war looms in the Caucasus. Asia News. Retrieved from https://www.asianews.it/news-en/A-new-geography-of-war-looms-in-the-Caucasus-56868.html
  • Shafiyev, F., & Huseynov, V. (2022, September 19). Is the Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Process Dead? The National Interest. Retrieved from https://nationalinterest.org/feature/armenia-azerbaijan-peace-process-dead-204845
  • Sözcü. (2022, October 31). Aliyev’den Putin’e: Zamanı geldi. Sözcü. Retrieved from https://www.sozcu.com.tr/2022/dunya/aliyevden-putine-zamani-geldi-7452585/
  • Taştekin, F. (2022a). Ermenistan’la barış nasıl yapılmaz? Al-Monitor. Retrieved from https://www.al-monitor.com/tr/originals/2022/10/turkeys-stance-complicates-potential-peace-between-armenia-azerbaijan
  • Taştekin, F. (2022b). Barışı beklerken savaşa uyanmak. Gazete Duvar. Retrieved from https://www.gazeteduvar.com.tr/barisi-beklerken-savasa-uyanmak-makale-1581228
  • US Energy Information Administration. (2015). Caspian Sea. Retrieved from https://www.eia.gov/international/analysis/regions-of-interest/Caspian_Sea
There are 27 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Regional Studies, Studies of the Turkic World
Journal Section Research Articles
Authors

Sait Yılmaz 0000-0001-7443-1856

Publication Date January 29, 2024
Submission Date August 22, 2023
Acceptance Date October 1, 2023
Published in Issue Year 2024 Volume: 8 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Yılmaz, S. (2024). Unraveling the Nagorno-Karabakh Conundrum: Deciphering Russia’s Southern Caucasus Strategy. Lectio Socialis, 8(1), 1-16. https://doi.org/10.47478/lectio.1347923

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