Mikro Ölçekli Kayıptan Makro Ekonomik Analize

Abstract

Türkiye için asrın felaketi olan 2023 Kahramanmaraş depremleri ardından oluşan büyük çaplı yıkım ve yapısal hasarlar ile mevcut yapı stokunun sismik kırılganlığını ortaya koymuştur. Depremler, doğrudan ve dolaylı ekonomik etkileriyle geniş çaplı bir mali maliyet yükü doğurmuştur. 2000 yılı öncesi inşa edilen orta yükseklikteki betonarme yapılarda oluşan yıkım ve hasarlar dikkate alınarak bu çalışma kapsamında bu tür binalardan depremlerde tamamen yıkılan ve homojen özellikler gösteren 20 adet betonarme bina için doğrudan ve dolaylı ekonomik maliyetler ortaya konmaya çalışılmıştır. Bu yapılar için sermaye stoğu kaybı, eşya ve envanter zayiatı ve ekonomik akış kesintisi parametreleri üzerinden modellenmesine dayanmaktadır. Analizde; inşaat mühendisliği verileriyle (yıkılan betonarme hacmi, enkaz kaldırma maliyeti) iktisadi veriler (birim metrekare maliyetleri, ikame maliyetleri ve fırsat maliyeti) entegre edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular, 20 binalık küçük bir yapı grubunun dahi yıkılmasının; sadece fiziksel bir barınma krizi olmadığını, aynı zamanda bölge ekonomisinden milyonlarca dolarlık sabit sermayenin bir anda çekilmesi anlamına geldiğini göstermektedir.

Keywords

• Deprem
• Kahramanmaraş
• Betonarme
• Ekonomik Kayıp
• Maliyet

From Micro-Scale Loss to Macroeconomic Analysis

Abstract

The 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquakes, which were the disaster of the century for Türkiye, revealed the seismic vulnerability of the existing building stock with the large-scale destruction and structural damages that followed. Earthquakes have created a large-scale financial cost burden with their direct and indirect economic effects. Considering the destruction and damage caused by medium-height reinforced concrete structures built before 2000, within the scope of this study, direct and indirect economic costs were tried to be revealed for 20 reinforced concrete buildings that were destroyed in earthquakes and showed homogeneous features. For these structures, capital stock loss is based on modelling over the parameters of loss of goods and inventory and economic flow interruption. In the analysis, civil engineering data (volume of demolished reinforced concrete, debris removal cost) and economic data (unit square meter costs, substitution costs and opportunity cost) were integrated. The findings obtained show that even a small building group of 20 buildings collapsed; It shows that it is not only a physical housing crisis but also means the sudden withdrawal of millions of dollars of fixed capital from the regional economy.

Keywords

• Earthquake
• Kahramanmaraş
• Reinforced concrete
• Economic loss
• Cost

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