Standartlaştırılmış Yağış İndeksi ve Ondalıklar İndeksi Yöntemleri ile Wadi Righ Bölgesi (Cezayir) Kuraklık Analizi

Year 2023, Volume: 14 Issue: 1, 128 - 138, 22.06.2023

Asma Bettahar Şehnaz Şener

https://doi.org/10.29048/makufebed.1248923

Abstract

Kuraklık, belirli bir süre boyunca bir bölgede gerçekleşen atmosferik değişikliklerle temsil edilen doğal bir olgudur. Atmosferik değişiklikler hidrolojik sistemde önemli dengesizliklere sebep olmaktadırlar. Özellikle bölgesel kuraklık analizleri iklim çalışmaları için ve su yönetimi planlamalarında büyük öneme sahiptir. Bu çalışmada, Wadi Righ Bölgesinde 1975 – 2018 yılları arasında gözlemlenen meteorolojik kuraklıkların analizi gerçekleştirilmiştir. Bu kapsamda, Touggourt Meteoroloji istasyonunda ölçülmüş 1975-2018 yıllarına ait 43 yıllık yağış verileri kullanılarak Standartlaştırılmış Yağış İndeksi ve Ondalıklar İndeksi yöntemleri ile çalışma alanında geçmişe yönelik kuraklıklar incelenmiştir. Meteorolojik kuraklık analizi sonuçları, bölgenin yaklaşık olarak her on yılda bir tekrarlanan kuraklık dönemlerine maruz kaldığını göstermektedir. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre çalışma alanında 1980-1989 yılları arası ve 2010-2018 yılları arası genel olarak kurak dönemler olarak belirlenmiştir. Standartlaştırılmış Yağış İndeksi yöntemine göre 1990-2004 yılları arasında normal ve nemli dönemler izlenmektedir. 1989 yılı ise her iki indeks yöntem ile aşırı kurak-şiddetli kurak bir yıl olarak belirlenmiştir. Çalışma kapsamında kullanılan farklı indeks yöntemler ile çalışma alanında geçmişten günümüze yaşanmış olan kurak dönemler birbiri ile benzer olup bu sonuç, her iki yönteminde geçerliliğini ve kullanılabilirliğini desteklemektedir.

Keywords

Cezayir, meteorolojik kuraklık, ondalıklar indeksi, standartlaştırılmış yağış indeksi

Thanks

Bu çalışma, SDÜ Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü, Su Yönetimi Anabilim Dalında yapılmakta olan doktora tezinin bir ürünüdür.

Drought Analysis of Wadi Righ Region (Algeria) with Standardized Precipitation Index and Decile Index Methods

Abstract

Drought is a natural phenomenon represented by atmospheric changes that take place in a region over a period of time. Atmospheric changes cause significant imbalances in the hydrological system. Especially regional drought analyzes are of great importance for climate studies and water management planning. In this study, the analysis of meteorological droughts observed in the Wadi Righ Region between 1975 and 2018 was carried out. In this context, historical droughts in the study area were examined with Standardized Precipitation Index and Decimals Index methods, using 43 years of precipitation data from 1975-2018 measured at the Touggourt Meteorology station. Meteorological drought analysis results show that the region is exposed to repeated drought periods approximately every ten years. According to the results obtained, the years between 1980-1989 and between 2010-2018 were generally determined as dry periods in the study area. According to the Standardized Precipitation Index method, normal and humid periods are observed between the years 1990-2004. The year 1989 was determined as an extremely dry-severely dry year by both index methods.

Keywords

Algeria, meteorological drought, decimal index, standardized precipitation index

References

• Agwata, J.F. (2014). A review of some indices used for drought studies. Civ Environ Res (6): 2224–5790.
• Alley, W. M. (1984). The Palmer drought severity index: limitations and assumptions. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 23(7): 1100-1109.
• Azhdari, Z., Bazrafshan, O., Shekari, M., Zamani, H. (2020). Three-dimensional risk analysis of hydro-meteorological drought using a multivariate nonlinear index. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, (142): 1311–1327.
• Bakanoğulları, F. (2020). SPEI ve SPI indisleri kullanılarak İstanbul-Damlıca deresi havzasında kuraklık şiddetlerinin analizi. Toprak Su Dergisi, 9(1): 1-10
• Bazza, M., Kay, M. Knutson, C., (2018). Drought characteristics and management in North Africa and the Near East. FAO Water Reports, (45).
• Bel, F., Demargne, F. (1966). Etude géologique du continental terminal; DEC, ANRH, Alger, Algérie, 24 planches, 22s.
• Bel, F., Cuche. D. (1969). Mise au point des connaissances sur la nappe du Complexe Terminal; ERESS; Ouargla. Algérie, 20s.
• Bel, F., Cuche. D. (1970). Etude des nappes du Complexe Terminal du bas Sahara. Données géologiques et hydrogéologiques pour la construction du modèle mathématique. DHW., Ouargla.
• Benhaddya, M.L., Halis, Y. Hamdi-Aïssa, B. (2020). Assessment of heavy metals pollution in surface and groundwater systems in Oued Righ region (Algeria) using pollution indices and multivariate statistical techniques. African Journal of Aquatic Science, 45(3): 269-284.
• Bettahar, A. Şener, Ş. (2022). Analysis of meteorological drought indices in the Wadi Righ area (southern Algeria). Sustainable Water Resources Management, 8(5): 152; DOI:10.1007/s40899-022-00740-y
• Bettahar, A., Nezli, I.E., Kechiched, R. (2017). Evolution and mineralization of water chemistry in the aquifer systems of the terminal complex of the Wadi Righ valley. Energy Procedia, (119): 318–324.
• Bouabdelli, S., Zeroual, A., Meddi, M., Djelloul, F., Alkama, R., (2020). Past and future drought in Northwestern Algeria: the Beni Bahdel Dam catchment. Proceedings of IAHS (PIAHS), (383): 315–318.
• Busson, G. (1966). Le Mésozoïque saharien. 1ère partie : L’Extrême Sud-tunisien. Ed. Paris, C.N.R.S. Centre Rech. Zones Arides , Géol., 8, 194 s.
• Busson, G. (1970). Le Mésozoïque saharien. 2ème partie : Essai de synthèse des données des sondages Algéro-Tunisiens. Ed. Paris, C.N.R.S. Centre Rech. Zones Ari-des, Géol., 11, 811s.
• Busson, G. (1971). Principes, méthodes et résultats d’une étude stratigraphique du Mésozoïque saharien (Principles, methods and results of a stratigraphic study of the Mesozoic Sahara). Ed. Paris, 464s.
• Castany, G. (1982). Hydrogéologie, Principes et Métho-des. Paris, Ed. Dunod, 237s.
• Choat, B., Jansen, S., Brodribb, T.J., Cochard, H., Delzon, S., Bhaskar, R., Bucci, S.J., Field, T.S., Gleason, S.M., Hacke, U.G., Jacobsen, A.L., Lens, F., Maherali, H., Martínez, V.J., Mayr, S., Mencuccini, M., Mitchell, P.J., Nardini, A., Pittermann, J., Pratt, R.B., Sperry, J.S., Westoby, M., Wright, I.J., Zanne, A.E. (2012). Global convergence in the vulnerability of forests to drought. Nature, (491):752–755.
• Cornet, A. (1964). Introduction à l’hydrogéologie Saharienne. Géorg. Phys. et Géol. Dyn, 61: 5–72.
• Dilley, M., Chen, R.S., Deichmann, U., Arthur, L., Lerner, L., Margaret, A., Agwe, J., Buys, P., Kjekstad, O., Bradield, L., Yetman, G. (2005). Natural disaster hotspots, a glo-bal risk analysis. The World Bank. Hazard Management Unit, Washington.
• Dubost., (1991). Ecologie, Aménagement et développement Agricole des Oasis Algériennes. Edition 2002, N Dépôt légal, 1092-2002.
• Edossa, D.C, Babel, M.S, Das, G.A. (2010). Drought analysis in the Awash river basin, Ethiopia. Water Resour Manag, (24) :1441–1460.
• Fabre, J. (1976). Introduction A La Géologie Du Sahara d'Algérie Et Des Régions Voisines. SNED, Alger, 421s.
• Gibbs, W.J., Maher, J.V. (1967). Rainfall deciles as drought indicators, Bureau of Meteorology Bulletin 48, Common wealth of Australia, Melbourne.
• Gokmen, T. (2021). Discrepancy precipitation index for monitoring meteorological drought. Hydrol J, 597:126174; DOI:10.1016/j. jhydr ol.2021.126174
• Habes, S., Djabri, L., Bettahar, A. (2016). Water quality in an arid weather area, case: groundwater of terminal complex and continental intercalary- Algerian southeast. J Larhyss, (28): 55–63.
• Hao, Z., AghaKouchak, A. (2013). Multivariate standardi-zed drought index: a parametric multi-index model. Advances in Water Resources, (57):2-18.
• Heim Jr, R.R. (2002). A review of twentieth-century drought indices used in the United States. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 83(8): 1149-1166.
• Kamalanandhini, M., Annadurai, R. (2021). Assessment of five meteorological indices for monitoring the drought condition in chengalpattu district, tamilnadu, india. Materials Today: Proceedings, (46): 3699-3703.
• Karl, T.R. (1983). Some spatial characteristics of drought duration in the United States. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 22(8):1356-1366.
• Karl, T.R. (1986). The sensitivity of the Palmer Drought Severity Index and Palmer's Z-index to their calibration coefficients including potential evapotranspiration. Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology, 77-86.
• Karl, T., Quinlan, F., Ezell, D.S. (1987). Drought termina-tion and amelioration: Its climatological probability. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climato-logy, 26(9): 1198-1209.
• Keyantash, J., Dracup, J.A. (2002). The Quantification of drought: An evaluation of drought indices. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, (83): 1167.
• Kumar, V., Panu, U., (1997). Predictive assessment of severity of agricultural droughts based on agroclimatic factors. J Am Wat Res Assoc (33): 1255–1264.
• Ladji H., Benrachdi, K., Djoumad, S. (2019) Analysis of climatic drought using drought indices in Algiers Region. Algerian J Environ Sci Technol (5): 2437–1114.
• Lohani, V.K., Loganathan, G.V. (1997). An early warning system for drought management using the Palmer Drought Index. J Am Wat Res Assoc (33): 1375–1386.
• Lohani, V.K., Loganathan, G.V., Mostaghimi, S. (1998). Long-term analysis and short-term forecasting of dry spells by Palmer Drought Severity Index. Nord Hydrol 29:21–40.
• Mahmoudi, P., Rigi, A., Miri Kamak, M. (2019). A comparative study of precipitation-based drought indices with the aim of selecting the best index for drought monito-ring in Iran. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, (137): 3123-3138.
• Marengo, J.A., Borma, L.S., Rodríguez, D.A., Pinho, P., Soares, W.R. Alves, L.M. (2013). Recent extremes of drought and flooding in Amazonia: vulnerabilities and human adaptation.
• Matari, A., Kerrouche, M., Bousid, H., Douguedroit, A., (1999) Sécheresse dans l’ouest algérien. Géo Prodig (12): 98–106.
• McKee, T., Doesken, N., Kleist, J. (1993). The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scale. Proceedings of the Eighth Conference on Applied Climatology (22):179-184. Anaheim, California: American Meteorological Society.
• Meklati A (2009) Develop a drought response plan in the wilaya of Algiers. M’hamed Bougara Ünivertesi, Boumerdes.
• Mishra, A.K. and Singh, V.P. (2010). A review of drought concepts. Journal of Hydrology, 391(1-2): 202-216.
• Moghimi, M. M., Zarei, A. R. (2021). Evaluating performance and applicability of several drought indices in arid regions. Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 57: 645-661.
• Morid, S., Smakhtin, V., Moghaddasi, M. (2006). Compari-son of seven meteorological indices for drought monitoring in Iran. International Journal of Climatology, (26): 971-985.
• Mukherjee, S., Mishra, A., Trenberth, K.E. (2018). Climate change and drought: a perspective on drought indices. Current Climate Change Reports, 4: 145-163.
• Passioura, J.B. (1996). Drought and drought tolerance. Plant Growth Regulation, 20: 79–83.
• Pramudya, Y., Onishi, T. (2018, March). Assessment of the standardized precipitation index (SPI) in Tegal City, Central Java, Indonesia. In IOP conference series: earth and environmental science (Vol. 129, No. 1, p. 012019). IOP Publishing.
• Reddy, A.R., Chaitanya, K.V., Vivekanandan, M. (2004). Drought induced responses of photosynthesis and antioxidant metabolism in higher plants. Journal of Plant Physiology, 161: 1189–1202.
• Salehnia, N., Alizadeh, A., Sanaeinejad, H., Bannayan, M., Zarrin, A., Hoogenboom, G. (2017). Estimation of meteorological drought indices based on AgMERRA precipitation data and station-observed precipitation data. Journal of Arid Land, 9: 797-809.
• Shafer, B.A, Dezman, L.E. (1982) Development of a sur-face water supply index (SWSI) to assess the severity of drought conditions in snowpack runoff areas. In: Proceedings of the Western Snow Conference, Fort Collins, CO. 164–175
• Smakhtin, V. U., Hughes, D. A. (2004). Review automated estimation and analysis of drought indices in South Asia. Working Paper 83, Colombo, SriLanka, Internati-onal Water Management Institute. https://www.preventionweb.net/files/1869_VL102136.pdf
• Smith, D.I., Hutchinson, M.F., McArthur, R.J., (1993). Aust-ralian climatic andagricultural drought: Payments and policy. Drought Network News, 5 (3): 11-12.
• Şener, E., Davraz, A. (2021). Yağış tabanlı farklı indisler kullanılarak meteorolojik kuraklık analizi: Isparta örneği. Mehmet Akif Ersoy Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Ensti-tüsü Dergisi, 12(Ek (Suppl.) 1): 404-418.
• Şener, E., Şener, Ş. (2021). SPI ve CZI kuraklık indislerinin CBS tabanlı zamansal ve konumsal karşılaştırması: Burdur Gölü Havzası örneği. Doğal Afetler ve Çevre Dergisi, 7(1): 41-58.
• Terzi, Ö. Taylan, D. (2022). Meteorological drought estima-tion by wavelet-gene expression programming: Case study of Çanakkale, Türkiye. Mehmet Akif Ersoy Üni-versitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü Dergisi, 13 (Ek Sayı:1): 361-369.
• Tirivarombo, S., Osupile, D., Eliasson, P. (2018). Drought monitoring and analysis: standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and standardised precipitation index (SPI). Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C, 106, 1-10.
• Tsakiris, G., Nalbantis, I., Vangelis, H., Verbeiren, B., Huysmans, M., Tychon, B., Jacquemin, I., Canters, F., Vanderhaegen, S., Engelen, G., Poelmans, L., De Bec-ker, P., Batelaan, O. (2013). A system-based paradigm of drought analysis for operational management. Water Resources Management, 27: 5281-5297.
• Tsakiris, G., Pangalou, D., Vangelis, H. (2007). Regional drought assessment based on the reconnaissance drought index (RDI). Water Resources Management, 21(5): 821-833.
• Van Rooy, M.P., (1965) A rainfall anomaly index (RAI) independent of time and space. Notos, 14:43–48
• Vergni, L., Todisco, F., Di Lena, B. (2021). Evaluation of the similarity between drought indices by correlation analysis and Cohen's Kappa test in a Mediterranean area. Natural Hazards, 108(2): 2187-2209.
• Werick, W. J., Willeke, G. E., Guttman, N. B., Hosking, J. R. M., Wallis, J. R. (1994). National drought atlas developed.
• Wilhite, D.A., (2000). Drought as a natural hazard: concepts and definitions. Dagbegnon, C., Djebou, S., Singh, V.P., 2016. Impact of climate change on the hydrologic cycle and implications for society. Environment and Social Psychology, 1(1).
• WMO (2016). Handbook of drought indicators and indices. Integrated drought management tools and guidelines Series 2.WMO- No. 1173, 21.Geneva.
• Zhai, J., Su, B., Krysanova, V., Vetter, T., Gao, C., Jiang, T. (2010). Spatial variation and trends in PDSI and SPI indices and their relation to streamflow in 10 large regions of China. J Clim, 23:649–663.