IMPACTS OF GLOBAL AND LOCAL COVID-19 CASES ON EMERGING STOCK MARKETS

Year 2021, , 1658 - 1669, 30.11.2021

Mustafa Emir Yücel , Özlem Fikirli , Hasan Şahin

https://doi.org/10.30798/makuiibf.912345

Abstract

In this study, we examine the both local and global Covid-19 deaths and confirmed cases impact on stock markets return. We use the daily data from 26 countries, which are classified as emerging financial markets. According to the findings, a decrease in emerging stock market returns is not only due to local confirmed cases, but also from global confirmed cases. Our analysis also suggests that while an increase in total confirmed cases within the local variables leads to more decrease, total deaths within the global variables cause more decline in returns. When we consider the change in the stock market returns brought about by both local and global level confirmed cases rates and death rates increase, all global level variables (new confirmed cases, total confirmed deaths, new confirmed cases) except total confirmed cases lead to more decline. In other words, even if the countries control the covid-19 locally, the negative global impact on the stock market will continue.

Keywords

Covid-19, Stock Market Returns, Emerging Markets, Pandemic

KÜRESEL VE YEREL COVİD-19 VAKALARININ GELİŞMEKTE OLAN BORSALAR ÜZERİNE ETKİSİ

Abstract

Bu çalışma doğrulanmış küresel ve yerel Covid-19 vaka sayılarının gelişmekte olan borsa getirileri üzerine etkisini incelemektedir. Çalışmada gelişmekte olan piyasa sınıflandırmasına giren 26 ülkeye ait günlük veriler kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular ışığında borsa getirilerinde yaşanan düşüşler sadece yerel Covid-19 vakaları ile açıklanmamakta aynı zamanda küresel Covid-19 vakaları da bu düşüşte etkili olmaktadır.Analiz sonuçları ayrıca, yerel değişkenler içinde doğrulanmış toplam vaka sayısında yaşanan artışın getiriler üzerinde en fazla azalmaya yol açtığını gösterirken, küresel değişkenlerde doğrulanmış toplam ölüm sayısının daha etkili olduğunu göstermektedir. Hem yerel hem de küresel düzeyde doğrulanmış toplam vaka oranları ve ölüm oranları göz önüne alındığında, doğrulanmış toplam vaka değişkeni dışındaki küresel boyuttaki diğer tüm değişkenlerde (yeni vaka, toplam ölüm, yeni ölüm) yaşanan artış borsa getirileri üzerinde daha fazla negatif etkiye yol açmaktadır. Diğer bir ifadeyle ülkeler Covid-19 salgınını yerel boyutta kontrol altına alsalar bile, küresel olarak yaşanan artışlar borsa getirileri üzerinde olumsuz etkilere yol açmaktadır.

Keywords

Covid-19, Borsa Getirileri, Gelişmekte Olan Piyasalar, Pandemi

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