KIRILGAN SEKİZLİ'DE GIDA FİYAT BALONLARININ SAPTANMASI: KÜRESEL KRİZ-COVİD 19 PANDEMİ DÖNEMLERİ İÇİN KARŞILAŞTIRMA

Year 2021, Volume: 8 Issue: 2, 1123 - 1140, 27.07.2021

Nimet Varlık

https://doi.org/10.30798/makuiibf.910364

Cited By: 5

Abstract

Çalışmanın amacı, 2008 Küresel Kriz ve Covid 19 pandemi dönemlerinde Kırılgan Sekizli ülkelerinde gıda fiyat balonlarının tarihlerini saptamaktır. Bu amaçla yinelemeli sağ kuyruklu birim kök testleri (Sup-Augmented Dickey-Fuller; SADF ve Generalized Sup-Augmented Dickey-Fuller; GSADF) yoluyla 2007:01-2020:09 dönemi için FAO gıda fiyat endeksi kullanılarak gıda fiyat balonlarının tarihleri tahmin edilmektedir. Çalışmanın sonucunda Arjantin, Brezilya ve Şili haricinde diğer Kırılgan Sekizli ülkelerinde Küresel Kriz döneminde kısa süreli gıda fiyat balonları tespit edilmiştir. Covid 19 pandemi dönemi bulguları incelendiğinde ise, Endonezya ve Arjantin haricindeki diğer Kırılgan Sekizli ülkelerinde, 2020 yılının ikinci çeyreğinde başlayan ve halen süren gıda fiyat balonları olduğu görülmektedir. Pandemi döneminde dünya genelinde yaşanan kuraklığın etkisi dikkate alındığında, gıda fiyat balonlarının daha uzun süreli olması beklenen bir bulgudur. Covid 19 pandemi döneminde gerçekleşen balonların ortak noktası, balonların 2020 yılının dördüncü ayından itibaren zirve yapmış olmasıdır. Bunun yanı sıra elde edilen bulgular, Covid 19 pandemi döneminde en büyük gıda fiyat balonunun Türkiye’de oluştuğunu göstermektedir.

Keywords

FAO Gıda Fiyat Endeksi, Fiyat Balonu, Kırılgan Sekizli, SADF, GSADF

DETECTING FOOD PRICE BUBBLES IN THE FRAGILE EIGHT: COMPARISON FOR THE GLOBAL CRISIS-COVID 19 PANDEMIC PERIODS

Abstract

The aim of the study is to determine the dates of food price bubbles in Fragile Eights countries during the 2008 global crisis and the covid 19 pandemic. For this purpose, dates of food price bubbles are estimated using the FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization) Food Price Index for the period 2007:01-2020:09 through recursive right-tailed unit root tests (Sup-Augmented Dickey-Fuller; SADF and Generalized Sup-Augmented Dickey-Fuller; GSADF). As a result of the study, short-term food price bubbles were detected during the global crisis in other Fragile Eight countries, with the exception of Argentina, Brazil and Chile. When the findings of the Covid 19 pandemic period are examined, it is seen that there are food price bubbles that started in the second quarter of 2020 and are still continuing in other Fragile Eight countries except Indonesia and Argentina. Considering the impact of the drought experienced throughout the world during the pandemic period, it is an expected finding that the food price bubbles will be longer. The common point of the bubbles, which took place during the covid 19 pandemic period, is that the bubbles peaked in the fourth month of 2020. In addition, the findings show that the largest food price bubble occurred in Turkey during the Covid 19 pandemic period.

Keywords

Food Price Index, Price Bubble, Fragile Eight, SADF, GSADF

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