TÜRKİYE VE AVRO BÖLGESİ ARASINDAKİ İKİLİ TİCARETTE J EĞRİSİ

Year 2022, Volume: 9 Issue: 2, 1420 - 1432, 29.07.2022

Salih Özdemir Mert Topcu Furkan Emirmahmutoglu

https://doi.org/10.30798/makuiibf.1097414

Abstract

J-eğrisi hipotezinin geçerliliği araştıran çalışmaların oluşturduğu literatür genellikle toplam ticaret verileri ile analiz yapmaktadır. Ancak son dönemde yapılan çalışmalar toplamın yanlılığın sorununu göz önüne alarak toplulaştırılmamış veri ile çalışmanın önemli olduğuna vurgu yapmaktadır. En önemli ticaret partnerinin Avrupa Birliği ülkeleri olan Türkiye’de yapılan çalışmaların bir kısmı analizi toplam ticaret verileri ile gerçekleştirirken bir kısmı ise zaman serisi çerçevesinde ülke bazlı analiz yapmaktadır. Bu çalışma ise 2002:Q1-2019:Q4 döneminde Avrupa Birliği ülkeleriyle yapılan ikili ticarette J-eğrisi hipotezinin geçerliliği, heterojenite ve yatay kesit bağımlılığına karşı güçlendirilmiş dinamik panel veri analizi çerçevesinde ele alınacaktır. Dinamik Ortak İlişkili Etkiler tahmincisinden elde edilen bulgular, kısa dönemli sonuçlar göz önüne alındığında J Eğrisi hipotezinin geçerli olmadığına işaret etmektedir.

Keywords

J-Eğrisi, İkili Ticaret, Panel Veri, Avro Bölgesi

BILATERAL J-CURVE BETWEEN TURKEY AND THE EUROZONE

Abstract

A large body of the literature use aggregate data to investigate the validity of the J-curve hypothesis. Recent studies, however, address to the importance of disaggregated data in order to prevent from aggregation bias. In the case of Turkey where foreign trade volume is largely dominated by the Eurozone countries, one set of studies examines the J-curve phenomenon using total trade data while a second set of studies investigates the validity of the bilateral J-curve within a time-series framework. This study intends to investigate the validity of the bilateral J-curve between Turkey and the Eurozone over the period 2002:Q1-2019:Q4 within a dynamic panel data framework robust to heterogeneity and cross-section dependence. Results obtained from the Dynamic Common Correlated Effects estimator reveal that the J-Curve hypothesis does not hold given the short-run results.

Keywords

J-Curve, Bilateral Trade, Panel Data, Eurozone

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