Changing Security Landscape in the Black Sea: A Study on the Implications of Strategic and Regional Dynamics for Europe

Abstract

This article comprehensively examines the rapid and multidimensional transformations in Europe's security environment, within the framework of the strategic importance of the Black Sea region. The article analyzes several key developments: the new security vision shaped by the European Union's Strategic Compass document, NATO's redefined role on its eastern borders, the increasing use of non-traditional areas such as inland waterways for military purposes, and the impact of alternative financial mechanisms spearheaded by Russia and China on the global security order. The mutually reinforcing and often simultaneous nature of these developments is leading to the emergence of new threat perceptions and strategic priorities within Europe's security architecture. The Black Sea region, in particular, stands out as a critical strategic area at both the regional and continental levels, situated at the intersection of these new dynamics. Türkiye's geopolitical role in this region has multifaceted impacts across energy, defense, and transportation. In this context, the article aims to contribute to the debates on European security, the multipolar international order, and regional competition, thereby providing a deeper understanding of today's turbulent geopolitical environment.

Keywords

• Black Sea Region
• Inland Waterways
• Ragional Secuurity
• Economic Nationalism
• National Security and War

Karadenı̇z'de Değı̇şen Güvenlı̇k Manzarası: Stratejı̇k ve Bölgesel Dı̇namı̇klerin Avrupa Açısından Sonuçlarına Dair Bir İnceleme

Öz

Bu makale, Avrupa'nın güvenlik ortamında yaşanan hızlı ve çok boyutlu dönüşümleri Karadeniz bölgesinin stratejik önemi çerçevesinde kapsamlı bir şekilde incelemektedir. Avrupa Birliği’nin (AB) Stratejik Pusulası belgesiyle şekillenen yeni güvenlik vizyonu, NATO’nun doğu sınırlarında yeniden tanımlanan rolü, iç suyolları gibi geleneksel olmayan alanların askerî amaçlarla kullanımının artması ve Rusya ile Çin’in öncülüğünde geliştirilen alternatif finansal sistemlerin küresel güvenlik düzenine etkileri makalede ele alınan başlıca konular arasındadır. Bu gelişmelerin birbirini besleyen ve çoğu zaman eşzamanlı ilerleyen yönleri, Avrupa’nın güvenlik mimarisinde yeni tehdit algılarının ve stratejik önceliklerin doğmasına neden olmaktadır. Özellikle Karadeniz bölgesi, bu yeni dinamiklerin kesişim noktasında yer alarak hem bölgesel hem de kıtasal düzeyde kritik bir stratejik alan olarak öne çıkmaktadır. Türkiye’nin bu bölgede üstlendiği jeopolitik rol, enerji, savunma ve ulaştırma ekseninde çok katmanlı bir etkiye sahiptir. Makale, bu bağlamda Avrupa güvenliği, çok kutuplu uluslararası düzen ve bölgesel rekabet kavramlarına katkıda bulunarak, günümüzün çalkantılı jeopolitik ortamına dair daha derin bir kavrayış sunmayı amaçlamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Karadeniz Bölgesi
• İç Suyolları
• Bölgesel Güvenlik
• Ekonomik Milliyetçilik
• Ulusal Güvenlik ve Savaş

References

1. ATLANTIC COUNCIL (2024), "Security and Stability for the Black Sea Region", Atlantic Council, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/security-and-stability-for-the-black-sea-region/ (Erişim Tarihi: 29.04.2025).
2. BORNIO, Jakub (2024), "NATO Beyond 75: Strategic Evolution Amid Global Uncertainty", New Eastern Europe, https://neweasterneurope.eu/2024/09/16/nato-beyond-75-strategic-evolution-amid-global-uncertainty/ (Erişim Tarihi: 30.04.2025).
3. CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES (2024), "Navigating Security Challenges in the Black Sea Region", Center for Strategıc and Internatıonal Studıes, https://www.csis.org/analysis/navigating-security-challenges-black-sea-region (Erişim Tarihi: 09.05.2025).
4. COLIBASANU, Antonia (2024), "Turkey's Evolving Geopolitical Strategy in the Black Sea", Foreign Policy Research Institute, https://www.fpri.org/article/2024/12/turkeys-evolving-geopolitical-strategy-in-the-black-sea/ (Erişim Tarihi: 27.04.2025).
5. COUNCIL OF THE EUROPEAN UNION (2024), "EU-NATO: 9th Progress Report Stresses the Importance of ever Closer Cooperation at a Key Juncture for Euro-Atlantic Security", Council of the European Union, https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2024/06/13/eu-nato-9th-progress-report-stresses-the-importance-of-ever-closer-cooperation-at-a-key-juncture-for-euro-atlantic-security/ (Erişim Tarihi: 09.06.2025).
6. CROSSON, Dylan Macchiarini (2024), "EU-NATO Relations: Somewhere Between Dancing with Two Left Feet and Seamless Tango", Centre for European Policy Studies, https://www.ceps.eu/eu-nato-relations-somewhere-between-dancing-with-two-left-feet-and-seamless-tango/ (Erişim Tarihi: 05.05.2025).
7. DAVTYAN, Vahe S., TUFETULOV, Aidar M. ve VALEEVA, Yulia S. (2024), "Development of Economic Cooperation Between Russia and China in the Context of Sanctions", China Report, S.60(3), ss.322-338.
8. EA DAILY (2024), “Russia's Reaction to NATO's Course to Change the Regime of the Black Sea Straits: Patrushev's Instruction", EA Daily, https://eadaily.com/en/news/2024/11/01/russias-reaction-to-natos-course-to-change-the-regime-of-the-black-sea-straits-patrushevs-instruction (Erişim Tarihi: 19.04.2025).

9. EPRS (2025), “European Parliamentary Research Service Strategic Approach to the Black Sea”, EPRS, www.europarl.europa.eu/thinktank/en/document/EPRS_BRI%282025%29765800 (Erişim Tarihi: 13.04.2025).
10. EUROPEAN COMMISSION (2023), "EU-NATO Task Force on the Resilience of Critical Infrastructure", European Commission, https://commission.europa.eu/system/files/2023-06/EU NATO_Final%20Assessment%20Report%20Digital.pdf (Erişim Tarihi: 09.06.2025).
11. FANGER, Samantha (2024), "Russia's Weapons Transport Via the Caspian Sea", Caspian Policy Center, https://caspianpolicy.org/research/security/russias-weapons-transport-via-the-caspian-sea (Erişim Tarihi: 09.04.2025).
12. FREITAG, Vojtěch (2022), "French Presidency of the EU and Strategic Compass: More EU Military Missions to Come?", EUROPEUM Institute, https://www.europeum.org/wp-content/uploads/policy-brief-freitag.pdf (Erişim Tarihi: 09.04.2025).
13. FRIEDRICH NAUMANN FOUNDATION (2024), "Black Sea Security Conference 2024 Highlights", Freiheit Corporate Web Page, https://www.freiheit.org/south-caucasus/black-sea-security-conference-2024-highlights (Erişim Tarihi: 30.04.2025).
14. JAGHDANI, Tinoush Jamali ve KETABCHY, Mehdi (2023), "The Strategic Significance of the Russian Volga River System", Russian Analytical Digest, S.304, ss.22-27.
15. JOJA, Iulia-Sabina (2024), "Toward a NATO Black Sea Strategy", Middle East Institute, https://www.mei.edu/publications/toward-nato-black-sea-strategy (Erişim Tarihi: 19.05.2025).
16. KAIM, Markus ve KEMPIN, Ronja (2022), "Compass or Wind Chime? An Analysis of the Draft 'Strategic Compass' of the EU", SWP Berlin, https://www.swp-berlin.org/publications/products/comments/2022C03_StrategicCompass.pdf (Erişim Tarihi: 25.04.2025).
17. KONSTANTINOVSKY, Anya ve CARLOUGH, Molly (2024), “China-Russia Relations: September 2024", Council on Foreign Relations, https://www.cfr.org/article/china-russia-relations-september-2024 (Erişim Tarihi: 09.05.2025).
18. LEZHAVA, Nino ve HARTWELL, Leon (2024), “Russia and China at Odds Over Black Sea Ambitions", Center for European Policy Analysis, https://cepa.org/article/russia-and-china-at-odds-over-black-sea-ambitions/ (Erişim Tarihi: 09.06.2025).
19. MARQUES, Miguel (2024), "The European Union’s Strategic Compass – A New Strategic Approach for CSDP or Just a Reaction Based on a War in the Neighbourhood?", CSDP Olympiad Essays, https://www.emilyo.eu/sites/default/files/2024_Olympiad/07_Competition/10%20best%20essays/05_PT_AM_MARQUES%20Miguel_10.pdf (Erişim Tarihi: 16.04.2025).
20. MARRONE, Alessandro (2024), "A Europe-led NATO to Guarantee European Security: The Time Has Come", Aspenia Online, https://aspeniaonline.it/a-europe-led-nato-to-guarantee-european-security-the-time-has-come/ (Erişim Tarihi: 02.05.2025).
21. PROKOPENKO, Alexandra (2024), "What Are the Limits to Russia's 'Yuanization'?", Carnegie Politika, https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2024/05/china-russia-yuan?lang=en (Erişim Tarihi: 22.03.2025).
22. SHIRIYEV, Zaur (2024), “Russia’s War in Ukraine is Aggravating the Caspian Sea Environmental Crisis”, Crnegie Politika, https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2024/07/caspian-sea-ecology?lang=en (Erişim Tarihi: 20.05.2025).
23. TULUN, Teoman Ertuğrul (2022), "Macron's Proposal of Creating European Political Community and the NATO's Guardian Angel Wings", AVİM, https://avim.org.tr/en/Analiz/MACRON-S-PROPOSAL-OF-CREATING-EUROPEAN-POLITICAL-COMMUNITY-AND-THE-NATO-S-GUARDIAN-ANGEL-WINGS (Erişim Tarihi: 20.05.2025).
24. ÜNVER, Deniz (2023), "Growing Chinese Presence and Interests in the Black Sea", AVİM, https://avim.org.tr/Blog/GROWING-CHINESE-PRESENCE-AND-INTERESTS-IN-THE-BLACK-SEA (Erişim Tarihi: 20.05.2025).
25. VENNERI, Maryna (2020), "Significance of Ukraine's Maritime Industry in the Black Sea and Beyond", Middle East Institute, https://www.mei.edu/publications/significance-ukraines-maritime-industry-black-sea-and-beyond (Erişim Tarihi: 25.04.2025).
26. VOROTNYUK, Maryna (2024), "Part 1: Political and Diplomatic Dialogue: Challenges and Opportunities for Black Sea Cooperation Between Turkey and the West in the Post-2022 Environment", Atlantic Council Report, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/report/part-1-political-and-diplomatic-dialogue-challenges-and-opportunities-for-black-sea-cooperation-between-turkey-and-the-west-in-the-post-2022-environment/ (Erişim Tarihi: 21.05.2025).
27. YASHENKO, Yuri L. (2024), "Ukraine's Role in the Black Sea: Navigating a Geopolitical Crossroads", Middle East Institute, https://www.mei.edu/publications/ukraines-role-black-sea-navigating-geopolitical-crossroads (Erişim Tarihi: 13.04.2025).
28. ZHANG, Junhua (2024), "China and Russia: Toward an Alternate Financial System", Gis Reports Online, https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/china-russia-finance/ (Erişim Tarihi: 02.04.2025).