Order, Disorder, Reorder: Can The Liberal International Order “Survive” the Sino-American Competition?

Year 2023, , 309 - 327, 26.09.2023

Can Donduran

https://doi.org/10.14782/marmarasbd.1241924

Abstract

The future of international politics today hinges on how the Sino-American rivalry unfolds. Views
vary from expectations of peaceful evolution to hegemonic transition, but many fail to recognize
the significant role the liberal international order (LIO) can play in shaping the course of events.
Thanks to its structure and adaptability, the LIO is more than the mere environment surrounding
this rivalry and may be the primary determinant of American and Chinese choices, steering relations
toward cooperation. The success of the LIO during the post-WWII era is notably the product of the
environment it has managed to create, characterized by mutual gains, as well as considerable costs in
the event of a revisionist disruption. Moreover, the LIO has a structural character that enables it to exert
influence on state behavior. This article, drawing on liberal internationalist theory, contends that the
LIO demonstrates the substantial potential to emerge as the ultimate “victor” amidst the intensifying
rivalry between the two major actors. By evaluating multiple arguments, the analysis concludes that a
reformed version of the LIO, which accommodates both American and Chinese aspirations, includes a
dual leadership mechanism in decision-making, and reflects the newly shaped power dynamics, offers
a viable solution to the Sino-American competition.

Keywords

Sino-American relations, liberal international order, liberal internationalism, interdependence

Düzen, Düzensizlik, Yeniden Düzen: Liberal Uluslararası düzen Çin-Amerikan Rekabetini “Atlatabilir” mi?

Abstract

Günümüzde uluslararası siyasetin geleceği, Çin-Amerikan rekabetinin nasıl şekilleneceğine bağlıdır. Bu
rekabete ilişkin beklentiler, barışçıl evrimden hegemonik bir güç geçişi olasılığına kadar uzanmaktadır,
ancak liberal uluslararası düzenin olayların seyrini şekillendirme olasılığının genelde göz ardı
edildiği görülmektedir. Yapısı ve uyum yeteneğine bağlı olarak söz konusu düzen, bu rekabetin içinde
cereyan ettiği ortamdan çok daha fazlasını ifade etmektedir. Amerikan ve Çin tercihlerinin önemli
bir belirleyicisi olma ve ilişkileri iş birliğine doğru yöneltme kapasitesine sahiptir. Liberal uluslararası
düzenin İkinci Dünya Savaşı sonrası dönemdeki başarısı, yaratmayı başardığı, karşılıklı kazanımların
yanı sıra revizyonist dönüşümlerde yüksek maliyet yaratma gücüne sahip olmasıyla tanımlanan ortamın
ürünüdür. Ayrıca bu düzen, devlet davranışı üzerinde etkili olmasını sağlayan yapısal bir karaktere
de sahiptir. Liberal uluslararasıcı teoriye dayanan bu makale, liberal uluslararası düzenin yoğunlaşan büyük güç rekabetinin sonuçta kazananı olma olasılığının yüksek olduğunu savunmaktadır. Çeşitli
argümanlara dayanan bu analiz, tarafların beklentilerine uygun, karar almaya ilişkin ikili bir liderlik
mekanizması içeren ve yeniden şekillenen güç dinamiklerini yansıtan bir biçimde dönüşecek liberal
uluslararası düzenin Çin-Amerikan çatışmasının çözümünde merkezi önemde olduğu sonucuna
varmaktadır.

Keywords

Çin-Amerikan İlişkileri, Liberal uluslararası düzen, liberal uluslararasıcılık, karşılıklı bağımlılık

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