İsrail’in Nükleer Belirsizlik Politikasının Orta Doğu’nun Güvenliğine Etkisi

Year 2024, , 65 - 85, 31.03.2024

Zuhal Çalık Topuz

https://doi.org/10.14782/marmarasbd.1399942

Abstract

Orta Doğu coğrafyasının güvenliğine yönelik tehditler arasında bölgesel anlaşmazlıklar ve konvansiyonel silah rekabetinde denge arayışı yer almakla birlikte en önemli tehditlerden birisi nükleer silahlardır. Orta Doğu coğrafyasına nükleer silahları sokan ilk devlet olan İsrail, 1960’lı yıllardan beri nükleer silahlara sahip olmasına rağmen, nükleer silahlarının varlığını hiçbir zaman resmi olarak doğrulamadığı, nükleer belirsizlik politikasını sürdürmektedir. İsrail, nükleer belirsizlik politikası ile Orta Doğu devletleri karşısında caydırıcılık avantajını sağlarken aynı zamanda Orta Doğu coğrafyasında nükleer tekelini koruma kararlılığını devam ettirmektedir. Ancak, İsrail’in nükleer silahları ve genişleyen füze ve uzay tabanlı gözetleme sistemleri, Orta Doğu devletleri ile arasındaki stratejik denge üzerinde derin bir etki yaratmaktadır.

Dünyanın diğer yerlerinde olduğu gibi, bir devletin kendi güvenliğini artırmaya yönelik askeri çabaları, diğer devletlerin kendilerini daha az güvende hissetmelerine ve dolayısıyla benzer çabalara girişme olasılıklarının artmasına neden olarak güvenlik ikilemi sorunu yaratmaktadır. Orta Doğu coğrafyasında da, İsrail’in nükleer kapasitesi bölge devletleri arasında güvenlik sorunlarına ve askeri dengesizliklere yol açmaktadır. Çalışmada güvenlik ikilemi kavramı, İsrail’in nükleer güce sahip olmasının Orta Doğu coğrafyasının güvenliği üzerindeki dinamikleri anlamlandırmada analitik bir kavram olarak kullanılmıştır. Bu doğrultuda çalışmanın amacı, İsrail’in nükleer kapasitesinin doğası ve gelişiminin incelenmesinin yanı sıra İsrail’in nükleer belirsizlik politikasının güvenlik ikilemi kavramı çerçevesinde Orta Doğu’nun güvenliği üzerindeki etkisinin değerlendirilmesidir. Çalışma, İsrail’in nükleer belirsizlik politikasının Orta Doğu coğrafyasının güvenliğini ve olası uzlaşmayı engellediğini ileri sürmektedir.

Keywords

İsrail, Nükleer Belirsizlik, Orta Doğu, Güvenlik İkilemi

Ethical Statement

Bu çalışma etik kurul onayı gerektirmemektedir.

The Effect of Israel’s Nuclear Ambiguity Policy on The Security of the Middle East

Abstract

While threats to the security of the Middle East geography include regional disputes and the search for balance in conventional arms competition, one of the most important threats is nuclear weapons. Israel, the first state to introduce nuclear weapons into the Middle East geography, maintains its policy of nuclear uncertainty, in which it has never officially confirmed the existence of its nuclear weapons, even though it has had nuclear weapons since the 1960s. While Israel provides its deterrence advantage against the Middle Eastern states with its policy of nuclear ambiguity, it also maintains its determination to maintain its nuclear monopoly in the Middle East geography. However, Israel’s nuclear weapons and expanding missile and space-based surveillance systems have a profound impact on its strategic balance with Middle Eastern states.

As in other parts of the world, a state’s military efforts to increase its own security create the problem of a security dilemma by causing other states to feel less secure and therefore more likely to engage in similar efforts. In the Middle East, Israel’s nuclear capacity causes security problems and military imbalances among the states in the region. In the study, the concept of security dilemma was used as an analytical concept to make sense of the dynamics of Israel’s nuclear power on the security of the Middle East geography. In this regard, the aim of the study is to examine the nature and development of Israel’s nuclear capacity, as well as to evaluate the impact of Israel’s nuclear ambiguity policy on the security of the Middle East within the framework of the concept of security dilemma. The study argues that Israel’s policy of nuclear ambiguity prevents the security of the Middle East and possible reconciliation.

Keywords

Israel, Nuclear ambiguity, Middle East, Security Dilemma

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