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Year 2013, Volume: 5 Issue: 9, 139 - 150, 13.01.2014

Kadir Tuna Hakan Bektaş

Abstract

In this study, the relationship between the volume of domestic credit by deposit banks and the Gross Domestic Product in Turkey was analyzed using quarterly data for the period 1998-2012. For this aim, Gregory-Hansen cointegration test, Granger causality test and Zivot-Andrews unit root test that enables the structural break, were performed. As a result of the analysis, it was concluded that each of them was first-order stationary series and there was no long-run relationship between them. After performing the Granger causality test, it was found that there was no causal relationship between two series.

Keywords

Structural Break Financial Development Economic Growth Causality.

References

  • AHMED, S. M. and ANSARI, M. I. (1998), “Financial Sector Development and Economic Growth: The South-Asian Experience”, Journal of Asian Economics, 9(3): 503–517.
  • AKDİ, Y. (2010), Zaman Serileri Analizi (Birim Kökler ve Kointegrasyon), Genişletilmiş baskı, Ankara: Gazi Kitabevi.
  • AL-YOUSIF, Y. K. (2002), “Financial Development and Economic Growth: Another Look at The Evidence From Developing Countries”, Review of Financial Economics,11: 131-150
  • ARESTIS, P. and DEMETRIADES, P. (1997), “Financial Development and Economic Growth: Assessing The Evidence”, The Economic Journal, 107: 783-799.
  • ASLAN, Ö. ve KORAP, H. L. (2006), “Türkiye’de Finansal Gelişme Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi”, Muğla Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 17: 1–20.
  • BANERJEE, A. , LUMSDAINE, R. and STOCK, J. (1992), “Recursive and Sequential Tests of The Unit-Root and Trend-Break Hypotheses: Theory and International Evidence”, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 19: 271-287.
  • BECK, T. , LEVINE, R. and LOAYZA, N. (2000), “Finance and The Sources of Growth”, Journal of Financial Economics, 58: 261-300.
  • BITTENCOURT, M. (2012), “Financial Development and Economic Growth in Latin America: Is Schumpeter Right?”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 34: 341-355.
  • CEYLAN, S. ve DURKAYA, M. (2010), “Türkiye’de Kredi Kullanımı - Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi”, Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 24(2): 21-33.
  • CHRISTIANO, L. J. (1992), “Searching for a Break in GNP”, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics,10: 237-249.
  • CHRISTOPOULOS, D. K. and TSIONAS, E. G. (2004), “Financial Development and Economic Growth: Evidence From Panel Unit Root and Cointegration Tests”, Journal of Development Economics, 73(1): 55–74.
  • DEMETRIADES, P. O. and HUSSEIN, K. A. (1996), “ Does Financial Development Cause Economic Growth? Time-Series Evidence from 16 Countries”, Journal of Development Economics, 51(2): 387-411.
  • DEMETRIADES, P. O. and LUINTEL, Kul B. (1996), “Financial Development, Economic Growth and Banking Sector Controls: Evidence from India”, Economic Journal, 106: 359–374.
  • FRIMPONG, S. and ADAM, M. A. (2010), “Does Financial Sector Development Cause Investment and Growth? Empirical Analysis of the case of Ghana”, Journal of Business and Enterprise Development, 2: 67-84.
  • GELB, Alan H. (1989), “Financial Policies, Growth, and Efficiency”, World Bank Policy Planing and Research Working Paper, No: 202
  • GOLDSMITH, R.W. (1969), Financial Structure and Development, New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
  • GRANGER, C. W. J. (1969), “Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and CrossSpectral Methods”, Econometrica, 37(3): 424-438.
  • GREGORY, A. W. and HANSEN, B. E. (1996), “Residul-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models With Regime Shifts”, Journal of Econometrics, 70(1): 99-126.
  • GUPTA, K. L. (1984), Finance and Economic Growth in Developing Countries, London: Croom Helm.
  • GUJARATI, Damodar N. (2002), Basic Econometrics, Fourth Edition, McGraw-Hill Companies. HASSAN, M. K. , SANCHEZ, B. and YU, J. S. (2011), “Financial Development and Economic Growth: New Evidence From Panel Data”, The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 51: 88-104.
  • JUNG, W. S. (1986), “Financial Development and Economic Growth: International Evidence”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 34(2): 333–346.
  • KARACA, O. (2012), “Finansal Gelişme ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Türkiye İçin Bir Nedensellik Analizi”, BDDK Bankacılık ve Finansal Piyasalar Dergisi, Cilt 6, Sayı 2: 85-111.
  • KING, Robert G. and LEVINE, R. (1993), “Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might Be Right”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 108, No. 3: 717–737.
  • LEVINE, R. , LOAYZA, N. and BECK, T. (2000), “Financial intermediation and growth: Causality and causes”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 46: 31-77.
  • LEVINE, Ross (1997), “Financial Development and Economic Growth: Views and Agenda”, Journal of Economic Literature, Vol XXXV: 668-726.
  • LUCAS, Robert E. (1988), “On the Mechanics of Economic Development”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 22(1): 3-42.
  • MCKINNON, R. I. (1973), Money and Capital in Economic Development, Washington, DC: Brookings Institution.
  • MERCAN, M. (2013), “Kredi Hacmindeki Değişimlerin Ekonomik Büyümeye Etkisi: Türkiye Ekonomisi İçin Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı”, TBB Bankacılar Dergisi, 84: 54-71.
  • NARAYAN, P. K. and NARAYAN, S. (2013), “The Short-Run Relationship Between The Financial System and Economic Growth: New Evidence From Regional Panels”, International Review of Financial Analysis, 29: 70-78.
  • NELSON, C.R. and PLOSSER, C. I. (1982), “Trends and Random Walks in Macroeconomic Time Series”, Journal of Monetary Economics,10: 139-162.
  • ÖZCAN, B. ve ARI, A. (2011), “Finansal Gelişme ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin Ampirik Bir Analizi: Türkiye Örneği”, Business and Economics Research Journal, Vol 2: 1211
  • PERRON, P. (1989), “The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock, and The Unit Root Hypothesis”, Econometrica, 57: 1361-1401.
  • ROBINSON, Joan (1952), The Generalization of the General Theory, In The Rate of Interest and Other Essays, London: Macmillan Press.
  • ROUBINI, N. and SALA-I-MARTIN, X. (1992), “Financial Repression and Economic Growth”, Journal of Development Economics, 39: 5-30.
  • SHAN, J. , MORRIS, A. and SUN, F. (2001), “Financial Development and Economic Growth: An Egg-Chicken Problem?”, Review of International Economics, 9: 443-454.
  • TÜRKİYE BANKALAR BİRLİĞİ (TBB) (2008), “Bankalarımız 2008”, www.tbb.org.tr, (02013)
  • TÜRKİYE BANKALAR BİRLİĞİ (TBB) (2009), “Bankalarımız 2009”, www.tbb.org.tr, (02013)
  • TÜRKİYE BANKALAR BİRLİĞİ (TBB) (2010), “Bankalarımız 2010”, www.tbb.org.tr, (02013)
  • TÜRKİYE BANKALAR BİRLİĞİ (TBB) (2012), “Bankalarımız 2012”, www.tbb.org.tr, (02013)
  • YILANCI, V. ve ÖZCAN, B. (2010), “Yapısal Kırılmalar Altında Türkiye İçin Savunma Harcamaları ile GSMH Arasındaki İlişkinin Analizi”, Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, Cilt 11, Sayı 1: 21-33.
  • ZIVOT, E. ve ANDREWS, W. K. (1992), “Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis”, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Vol 10, No 3: 251-270.

KREDİ HACMİNİN EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ÜZERİNDEKİ ROLÜNÜN İNCELENMESİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Year 2013, Volume: 5 Issue: 9, 139 - 150, 13.01.2014

Kadir Tuna Hakan Bektaş

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, mevduat bankaları yurtiçi kredi hacmi ile gayri safi yurtiçi hasıla arasındaki ilişki

Türkiye için 1998-2012 döneminde üç aylık veriler kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Bu amaçla,

yapısal kırılmaya izin veren Zivot-Andrews birim kök testi, Gregory-Hansen eşbütünleşme testi ve

Granger nedensellik testi kullanılmıştır. Yapılan analizler neticesinde, her iki serinin birinci

mertebeden durağan olduğu ve aralarında uzun dönem ilişkisinin bulunmadığı sonucuna

ulaşılmıştır. Uygulanan Granger nedensellik testi sonrasında ise iki seri arasında bir nedensellik

ilişkisi bulunmamıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler: Yapısal Kırılma, Finansal Gelişme, Ekonomik Büyüme, Nedensellik.

Keywords

Yapısal Kırılma Finansal Gelişme Ekonomik Büyüme Nedensellik.

References

  • AHMED, S. M. and ANSARI, M. I. (1998), “Financial Sector Development and Economic Growth: The South-Asian Experience”, Journal of Asian Economics, 9(3): 503–517.
  • AKDİ, Y. (2010), Zaman Serileri Analizi (Birim Kökler ve Kointegrasyon), Genişletilmiş baskı, Ankara: Gazi Kitabevi.
  • AL-YOUSIF, Y. K. (2002), “Financial Development and Economic Growth: Another Look at The Evidence From Developing Countries”, Review of Financial Economics,11: 131-150
  • ARESTIS, P. and DEMETRIADES, P. (1997), “Financial Development and Economic Growth: Assessing The Evidence”, The Economic Journal, 107: 783-799.
  • ASLAN, Ö. ve KORAP, H. L. (2006), “Türkiye’de Finansal Gelişme Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi”, Muğla Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 17: 1–20.
  • BANERJEE, A. , LUMSDAINE, R. and STOCK, J. (1992), “Recursive and Sequential Tests of The Unit-Root and Trend-Break Hypotheses: Theory and International Evidence”, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 19: 271-287.
  • BECK, T. , LEVINE, R. and LOAYZA, N. (2000), “Finance and The Sources of Growth”, Journal of Financial Economics, 58: 261-300.
  • BITTENCOURT, M. (2012), “Financial Development and Economic Growth in Latin America: Is Schumpeter Right?”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 34: 341-355.
  • CEYLAN, S. ve DURKAYA, M. (2010), “Türkiye’de Kredi Kullanımı - Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi”, Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 24(2): 21-33.
  • CHRISTIANO, L. J. (1992), “Searching for a Break in GNP”, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics,10: 237-249.
  • CHRISTOPOULOS, D. K. and TSIONAS, E. G. (2004), “Financial Development and Economic Growth: Evidence From Panel Unit Root and Cointegration Tests”, Journal of Development Economics, 73(1): 55–74.
  • DEMETRIADES, P. O. and HUSSEIN, K. A. (1996), “ Does Financial Development Cause Economic Growth? Time-Series Evidence from 16 Countries”, Journal of Development Economics, 51(2): 387-411.
  • DEMETRIADES, P. O. and LUINTEL, Kul B. (1996), “Financial Development, Economic Growth and Banking Sector Controls: Evidence from India”, Economic Journal, 106: 359–374.
  • FRIMPONG, S. and ADAM, M. A. (2010), “Does Financial Sector Development Cause Investment and Growth? Empirical Analysis of the case of Ghana”, Journal of Business and Enterprise Development, 2: 67-84.
  • GELB, Alan H. (1989), “Financial Policies, Growth, and Efficiency”, World Bank Policy Planing and Research Working Paper, No: 202
  • GOLDSMITH, R.W. (1969), Financial Structure and Development, New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
  • GRANGER, C. W. J. (1969), “Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and CrossSpectral Methods”, Econometrica, 37(3): 424-438.
  • GREGORY, A. W. and HANSEN, B. E. (1996), “Residul-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models With Regime Shifts”, Journal of Econometrics, 70(1): 99-126.
  • GUPTA, K. L. (1984), Finance and Economic Growth in Developing Countries, London: Croom Helm.
  • GUJARATI, Damodar N. (2002), Basic Econometrics, Fourth Edition, McGraw-Hill Companies. HASSAN, M. K. , SANCHEZ, B. and YU, J. S. (2011), “Financial Development and Economic Growth: New Evidence From Panel Data”, The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 51: 88-104.
  • JUNG, W. S. (1986), “Financial Development and Economic Growth: International Evidence”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 34(2): 333–346.
  • KARACA, O. (2012), “Finansal Gelişme ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Türkiye İçin Bir Nedensellik Analizi”, BDDK Bankacılık ve Finansal Piyasalar Dergisi, Cilt 6, Sayı 2: 85-111.
  • KING, Robert G. and LEVINE, R. (1993), “Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might Be Right”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 108, No. 3: 717–737.
  • LEVINE, R. , LOAYZA, N. and BECK, T. (2000), “Financial intermediation and growth: Causality and causes”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 46: 31-77.
  • LEVINE, Ross (1997), “Financial Development and Economic Growth: Views and Agenda”, Journal of Economic Literature, Vol XXXV: 668-726.
  • LUCAS, Robert E. (1988), “On the Mechanics of Economic Development”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 22(1): 3-42.
  • MCKINNON, R. I. (1973), Money and Capital in Economic Development, Washington, DC: Brookings Institution.
  • MERCAN, M. (2013), “Kredi Hacmindeki Değişimlerin Ekonomik Büyümeye Etkisi: Türkiye Ekonomisi İçin Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı”, TBB Bankacılar Dergisi, 84: 54-71.
  • NARAYAN, P. K. and NARAYAN, S. (2013), “The Short-Run Relationship Between The Financial System and Economic Growth: New Evidence From Regional Panels”, International Review of Financial Analysis, 29: 70-78.
  • NELSON, C.R. and PLOSSER, C. I. (1982), “Trends and Random Walks in Macroeconomic Time Series”, Journal of Monetary Economics,10: 139-162.
  • ÖZCAN, B. ve ARI, A. (2011), “Finansal Gelişme ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin Ampirik Bir Analizi: Türkiye Örneği”, Business and Economics Research Journal, Vol 2: 1211
  • PERRON, P. (1989), “The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock, and The Unit Root Hypothesis”, Econometrica, 57: 1361-1401.
  • ROBINSON, Joan (1952), The Generalization of the General Theory, In The Rate of Interest and Other Essays, London: Macmillan Press.
  • ROUBINI, N. and SALA-I-MARTIN, X. (1992), “Financial Repression and Economic Growth”, Journal of Development Economics, 39: 5-30.
  • SHAN, J. , MORRIS, A. and SUN, F. (2001), “Financial Development and Economic Growth: An Egg-Chicken Problem?”, Review of International Economics, 9: 443-454.
  • TÜRKİYE BANKALAR BİRLİĞİ (TBB) (2008), “Bankalarımız 2008”, www.tbb.org.tr, (02013)
  • TÜRKİYE BANKALAR BİRLİĞİ (TBB) (2009), “Bankalarımız 2009”, www.tbb.org.tr, (02013)
  • TÜRKİYE BANKALAR BİRLİĞİ (TBB) (2010), “Bankalarımız 2010”, www.tbb.org.tr, (02013)
  • TÜRKİYE BANKALAR BİRLİĞİ (TBB) (2012), “Bankalarımız 2012”, www.tbb.org.tr, (02013)
  • YILANCI, V. ve ÖZCAN, B. (2010), “Yapısal Kırılmalar Altında Türkiye İçin Savunma Harcamaları ile GSMH Arasındaki İlişkinin Analizi”, Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, Cilt 11, Sayı 1: 21-33.
  • ZIVOT, E. ve ANDREWS, W. K. (1992), “Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis”, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Vol 10, No 3: 251-270.
There are 41 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Makaleler
Authors

Kadir Tuna

Hakan Bektaş

Publication Date January 13, 2014
Submission Date January 13, 2014
Published in Issue Year 2013 Volume: 5 Issue: 9

Cite

APA Tuna, K., & Bektaş, H. (2014). KREDİ HACMİNİN EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ÜZERİNDEKİ ROLÜNÜN İNCELENMESİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ. Finansal Araştırmalar Ve Çalışmalar Dergisi, 5(9), 139-150.
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