ROBOTLARIN YÜKSELİŞİ! İŞSİZLİK VE GELİR ÜZERİNE ETKİLERİ

Year 2019, , 1 - 17, 09.02.2019

Rasim Özcan

https://doi.org/10.14783/maruoneri.vi.522005

Cited By: 2

Abstract

Önümüzdeki yıllarda yıkıcı teknolojik ilerlemelerin istihdam üzerinde büyük etkileri olacaktır. Geçmişte olduğu gibi, yeni teknolojiler insanların nasıl yaşadıklarını ve çalıştıklarını değiştirecektir. Bazı meslekler modası geçip yok olacak, buna karşılık yeni meslekler ortaya çıkacaktır. Sonuç olarak, insanlar bazı meslekleri bırakacak; yeni mesleklerde çalışabilmek için ise yeni beceriler edinmek zorunda kalacaklardır.Her ne kadar robotizasyon gibi yeni teknolojilerin yaygınlaşmasının birçok boyutu olsa da, yapısal işsizlikten gelir dağılımına kadar da muhtemel etkileri olacaktır. Akla gelen ilk soru, yeni teknolojilerin işgücü talebi üzerindeki etkisinin ne olacağıdır? Yeni teknolojilerin üretkenliği, dolayısıyla toplam geliri artırdığı düşünüldüğünde, akla gelen ikinci soru ise gelirdeki artışın çalışanların farklı beceri düzeyleri özellikle de düşük ve yüksek kalifiye işgücü arasında nasıl dağılacağı olmaktadır.Bu nedenle, bu çalışmada robotizasyonun yapısal işsizlik, işgücü talebi ve gelir dağılımına etkileri üzerinde durulmuştur. Robotizasyonun mevcut durumu gözden geçirilerek, gitgide yaygınla- şan robotizasyonun işsizlik ve gelir dağılımı üzerindeki potansiyel olumsuz etkilerinin azaltılmasın yanında robotizasyonun genel yaşam kalitesini yükseltmek için bir fırsat olarak görülmesine yönelik politika yapıcılara ve şirket yöneticilerine tavsiyelerde bulunulmaktadır.

Keywords

Robotizasyon, Otomasyon, İşsizlik, İşgücü Piyasası, Yüksek Vasıflı ve Düşük Vasıflı İş Gücü, Gelir Dağılımı

THE RISE OF ROBOTS! EFFECTS ON EMPLOYMENT AND INCOME

Abstract

Disruptive technological advances will have profound impacts on the employment landscape over the years to come. As in the past, new technologies will change the way humans live and work. Some occupations will become obsolete, while new occupations will emerge. Consequently, people will be displaced from some occupations, be forced to require new skills so that they can work in new occupations. Although the introduction of new technologies –robotization– has many dimensions, its effects will range from structural unemployment to distribution of labor income. The first question would be what will be the impact of new technologies on labor demand? Given that new technologies expectedly increase productivity, hence income, the second question would be how the raise be distributed between low and high skilled labor. Hence, this study focuses on the effects of robotization on the structural unemployment, its implications on labor demand and its income distribution effects. I review the current situation of robotization, and make recommendations to policy makers and corporate managers to get prepared for accelerating robotization and not only to mitigate its potential adverse effects on employment and income distribution, but also to take this as an opportunity to increase the quality of life for all.

Keywords

Robotization, Automation, Unemployment, Labor Market, High-skilled and Low-skilled Labor, Income Distribution

References

• Arntz, M., Gregory, T. & Zierahn, U. (2016). The Risk of Automation for Jobs in OECD Countries: A Comparative Analysis. OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers, No. 189. Atkinson, R.D. (2018). Testimony of Robert D. Atkinson Before the Little Hoover Commission, Hearing on Economic and Labor Force Implications of Artificial Intelligence. Information Technology and Innovation Foundation. Bassanini, A. & W. Ok, (2004). How do Firms’ and Individuals’ Incentives to Invest ın Human Capital Vary Across Groups? CEPN Working Papers. Card, D., Kluve, J. & A. Weber. (2010). Active labour market policy evaluations: A meta-analysis. The Economic Journal, 120, F452-F477. Frey, C. B. & M. A. Osborne (2013). The Future of Employment: How Susceptible are Jobs to Computerization? University of Oxford, Oxford. Gorle, P. & A. Clive. (2013). Positive Impact of Industrial Robots on Employment. International Federation of Robotics, Metra Martech, London. Graetz, G. & G. Michaels. (2015). Robots and work. IZA Discussion Paper 8938. Gregory, T., Salomons, A. & U. T. Zierahn (2016). Technological Change and Regional Labor Market Disparities in Europe. Centre for European Economic Research, Mannheim. Guvenen, F., Kuruscu, B., Tanaka S. & D. Wiczer. (2015). Multidimensional skill mismatch. NBER Working Paper, 21376. Johnson, G. (1997). Changes in earnings inequality: The role of demand shifts. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 11(2), 41-54. Keynes, J. M. (1930). Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren. In Essays in Persuasion [1963]. W.W. Norton, New York, NY. Leontief, W. (1983). The New New Age That’s Coming is Already Here. Bottom Lane/Personal, 4(8), 1. Machin, S. & J. van Reenen. (1998). Technology and changes in skill structure: Evidence from seven OECD countries. The Quarterly Journal of Economics. 113, 1215-1244. McKinsey Global Institute (2013). Disruptive Technologies: Advances that will Transform Life, Business, and the Global Economy. McKinsey & Company. McKinsey Global Institute (2017). Jobs Lost, Jobs Gained: Workforce Transitions in a Time of Automation. McKinsey & Company. McKinsey Global Institute (2018). Skill Shift Automation and the Future of the Workforce. McKinsey & Company. Mill, J. S. 1848 [1929]. Principles of Political Economy, edited by W. J. Ashley. Longmans, Green and Co. London. Mokyr, J., Vickers, C. & N. L. Ziebarth (2015). The history of technological anxiety and the future of economic growth: Is this time different? Journal of Economic Perspectives. 29(3), 31-50. Nilsson, N. J. (1984). Artificial Intelligence, Employment, and Income. AI Magazine. 5(2), 5-14. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). (1998). Technology, Productivity and Job Creation: Best Policy Practices, Paris. Ozcan, R. (2012). An analysis of manipulation strategies in stock markets. Istanbul Stock Exchange Review. 13(49), 19-37. Ozcan, R. (2018). How will robotization affect relative positions of the IDB member countries? The Journal of Knowledge Economy & Knowledge Management. 13(1), 1-20. Ricardo, D. 1821 [1971]. Principles of Political Economy. (3rd ed.) Pelican Classics, Harmondsworth. Sanders, J. & A. De Grip. (2004). Training, task flexibility and the employability of low-skilled workers. International Journal of Manpower. 25(1), 73-89. World Economic Forum (2017). Technology and Innovation for the Future of Production: Accelerating Value Creation, World Economic Forum, Geneva.