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PARASAL BİRLİK SÜRECİNDE KONJONKTÜR DALGALANMALARININ UYUMLAŞTIRILMASI :1987-2002

Year 2006, Volume: 7 Issue: 26, 163 - 172, 15.06.2006
https://doi.org/10.14783/maruoneri.678014

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, temel ekonomik göstergeleri uzun dönem faiz oranı, döviz kuru, enflasyon oranı, işsizdik oranı, büyüme oranı, cari işlemler dengesi (GSYİH’nın % olarak), borç (GSYİH’nın % olarak) ve açık (GSYİH’nın % olarak)) temelinde 1987-2002 yılları arasında Eurozone’daki ülkelerin konjonktür dalgalanmalarının senkronizasyonu İncelenmektedir. EMU’ya girmeden önce adayların çeşitli uyumlaştırması kriterlerini yerine getirmesi gerekir. Birinci kısımda, Euro’nun etapları incelenmektedir.Takip eden kısımda, Euro’nun güçlü yanları, zayıflıkları, fırsatlar ve tehlikeler (SWOT) analizi yapılmıştır. Çalışmanın metodolojisiyle doğrudan alakalı literatür araştırmalarının yer aldığı kısmı takiben elde edilen verilerle Eurozone ülkelerinin konjonktür dalgalanmalarının karşılaştırması yapılmıştır. Ülkelerin bu dönemdeki makroekonomik göstergelerinde eş zamanlılık düzeyinin yüksek olmasına karşın, dalga boylarının birbirlerine göre farklılıklar arz ettiği görülmüştür. Ayrıca çalışmada EMU’nun piyasa giriş tarihi ile beraber bu dalga boylarının birbirlerine daha çok yakınlaştığı ve dalgalanmaların boylarının ise daha küçüldüğü sonucuna varılmıştır.

References

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Year 2006, Volume: 7 Issue: 26, 163 - 172, 15.06.2006
https://doi.org/10.14783/maruoneri.678014

Abstract

References

  • [1] Schröder, J. (1999). The Euro, Dollar and International Monetary System. Journal of Asian Economies, 10(2), 237-245.
  • [2] Bordo, M.D. & Jonung, I. (1997). The History of Monetary Regimes-Some Lessons for Sweden and The EMU. Swedish Economic Policy Review, 4(2), 285-358.
  • [3] Kaikati, G.J. (1999). The Euro Versus the US Dollar: An Interview. Journal of World Business, 34(2), 171-192.
  • [4] Lewis, D.W.P. (1993). The Road to Europe: History, Institutions and Prospects of European Integration: 1943- 1993. Pieterlen: Peter Lang.
  • [5] Feldstein, M. (1997). The Political Economy of the European Economic and Monetary Union: Political Sources of an Economic Liability. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 11 (4), 23-42.
  • [6] Fratianni, M. & Von Hagen, J. (1992). The European Monetary System and European Monetary Union. Boulder: Westview Press.
  • [7] Dyson, K. (1994). Elusive Union: The Process of Economic and Political Union in Europe. New York: Longman.
  • [8] Cohn, T.H. (2002). Global Political Economy: Theory and Practice. Second Edition. USA: Addison Wesley Longman Publishers.
  • [9] Eijffînger, S.C.W. & De Haan, J. (2000). European Monetary and Fiscal Policy. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
  • [10] Griffıths, A. & Wall, S. (2004). Applied Economics. London: Temth Education, Pearson Education.
  • [11] Brock, D.K. (1998). Beyond Maastricht: The Long-Term Macroeconomic Impact of European Monetary Union. Transnational Lawyer, 11(1), Spring, 107-134.
  • [12] Keenen, P.B. (1998). The Transition to EMU: Issues and Implications. Journal of European Law, 4(2), Spring, 359- 394.
  • [13] Issing, O. (2001). The Euro_the Experience of the Past 2 Years. Journal of Asian Economics, 12(1), 1-20.
  • [14] Dornbush, R.; Favero, C. & Giavazzi, F. (1998). Immediate Challenges to the European Central Bank. Economic Policy, 13(26), 15-64.
  • [15] Rossi, S. (2004). The Enlargement of the Euro Area: What Lessons can be Learned from EMU? Journal of Asian Economics, 14(6), 947-970.
  • [16] Fatas, A. (1997). EMU: Countries or Regions? Lessons from the EMS Experience. European Economic Review, 41(3-5), 743-751.
  • [17] Swofford, J.L. (2000). Microeconomic Foundations of an Optimal Currency Area. Review of Financial Economics 9(2), 121-128.
  • [18] Fritsche, U. & Felix, M. (2001). Leading Indicators of Euroland Business Cycles. German Institute for Economic Research (DIW). Discussion Paper. No. 238. Berlin.
  • [19] Rose, A.K. & Van Wincoop, E. (2001). National Money as a Barrier to International Trade. The Real Case for Currency Union. The American Economic Review, 91(2), 386-390.
  • [20] Dueker M. & Wesche K. (1999). European Business Cycles: New Indices and Analysis of their Synchronicity. Federal Reserve Bank Working Paper, 19-b.
  • [21] Astolfı, R.; Ladiray, D. & Mazzi, L.G. (2001). Business Cycles Extraction of Euro-Zone GDP: Direct versus Indirect Approach. Vierteljahrshefre zur Wirtschaftsforschung, 70. Jahrgang, Heft: 3, 377-398.
  • [22] Breitung J. & Candelon, B. (2001). Is There a Common European Business Cycles: New Insight from a Frequency Domain Analysis. Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung, 70. Jahrgang, Heft: 3, 331-338.
  • [23] Sarno, E. & Zazzaro, A. (2002). An Index of Dissimilarity among Time Series: An Application to the Rates of the EU Countries. Proceeding of the Conference CompStat 2002 Short Communication and Posters.
  • [24] Ormerod, P. & Mounfıeld C. (2002). The Convergence of Business Cycles 1978-2000. Physica A, 307(3-4), 494-504.
  • [25] Tsionas, E.G. & Christopoulos, D.K. (2003). Maastricht Convergence and Real Convergence: European Evidence from Threshold and Smooth Transition Regression Models. Journal of Policy Modelling, 25(1), 43-52.
  • [26] Del Negro, M. & Otrok, C. (2003). Time Varying European Business Cycles. Federal Reserve Bank, February.
  • [27] Curie, D. (1997). The Pros and Cons of EMU. Research Report. London: Economic Intelligent Unit.
  • [28] Rey, H. (1998). The Emergence of the Euro as an International Currency. Economic Policy, 13(26), 305-343.
  • [29] Frankel, J. & Rose, A. (1996). Benefîts of EMU. CEPR Discussion Paper, No: 1473.
  • [30] Wyplosz, C. (1997). EMU: Why and How It Might Happen. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 11(4), 3- 21.
  • [31] Grimm, D. (1998). Some Psychological Aspects of EMU. Columbia Journal of European Law, 4(2), 487-491.
  • [32] Artis, M.J. & Winkler, B. (1997). The Stability Pact: Safeguarding the Credibility of the European Central Bank. Çenter for Economic Policy. Discussion Paper No. 1688.
  • [33] Baldwin, R. & Wyplosz, C. (2004). The Economics of European Integration. Berkshire: McGraw Hill Companies.
  • [34] Tanzi, V. (1998). The Demişe of the National State? IMF Working Paper.
  • [35] Goodhart, C. & Pappa, E. (2003). The Transition from National Currencies to the Euro. Economic Letters, 79(1), 83-88.
  • [36] Corsetti, G. & Pesenti, P. (1999). Stability, Asymmetry and Discontinuity : The Outset of European Monetary Union. NBER Brooking Paper on Economic Activity.
There are 36 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Eski Sayılar
Authors

İbrahim Bakırtaş This is me

Publication Date June 15, 2006
Published in Issue Year 2006 Volume: 7 Issue: 26

Cite

APA Bakırtaş, İ. (2006). PARASAL BİRLİK SÜRECİNDE KONJONKTÜR DALGALANMALARININ UYUMLAŞTIRILMASI :1987-2002. Öneri Dergisi, 7(26), 163-172. https://doi.org/10.14783/maruoneri.678014

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Marmara UniversityInstitute of Social Sciences

Göztepe Kampüsü Enstitüler Binası Kat:5 34722  Kadıköy/İstanbul

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