CAUSAL RELATİONSHİP BETWEEN EXPORT EXPANSION AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN TURKEY: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION

Year 1995, Volume: 1 Issue: 3, 101 - 109, 05.06.1995

Hilmi Zengin Harun Terzi

https://doi.org/10.14783/maruoneri.708665

Abstract

The effect of export expansion on economic growth is examined through
econometric analysis. The hypothesis that the relationship under the consideration is
significantly affected by the level of development is tested. Ourpurpose is to reconsider
the causality issue with the aid of co-integration and unit root testsfor the periods of
1923-1969 and 1970-1992. Contrary to conventional macroeconomic analysis, this
study implies that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Export expansion (EXP) of
Turkey are not cointegratedim implying the lack of any long-run eguilibriutn relations
and causaiity between two variables. Rest of the paper is organised as follows. Section
2 addresses a methodological procedures and altemative testing methods. Section 3
reports the empiricat results and section 4, finally, concludes the paper and suggests
possible directions for the future research.

Keywords

Export Expansion, Turkey, Economic Development

References

• Akaike, H., (1970) "Statistical Predictor Identification Annals of Institute of Statistical Mathematics,22, pp. 203-217.
• Dickey, D. A., William, R. B., and Robert, B. M., (1986) "Unit Roots in Time Series Models: Tests and Implications" The American Staüstician. February, pp. 12-26.
• Dickey, D. A , and Fuller, W. A , (1979) "Distribution of the Estimators for an Autoregressive for Time Series with Unit Root", Journal of American Statistical Association, June, 74, pp. 251- 276.
• _____________(1981) "Likelihood Ratio Statisticş for an Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root", Econometrica, 49, July, pp. 1057-1072.
• Emery, R. F., (1967) "The Relation of Export and Economic Grovrfh”, Kvklos, 20, pp, 470-486.
• Engle, R. F., and Yoo, B. S., (1987) "Forecasting and Testing in Co-integrating Systems", Journal of Econometrics. vol. 35, May, pp. 143-159.
• Fischer, S., (1981) "Relative Shocks, Relative Price Variability and Inflation”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activitv. no. 2, pp. 381-441.
• Fuller, W, A , (1979) "Introduction to Structuıal Time Series”, New York, John Wiley and Sons. Granger, C. W. J., (1986) "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Variables”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics. vol. 48, August, pp. 213-228.
• _____________ (1988) "Some Recent Developments in a Concept of Causality", Journal of Econometrics, vol. 39, Sept/Oct, pp. 199-211.
• Granger, C. W. J., and Engle, R. F., (1987) "Cointegration and Error Correction: Representing, Estimation and Testing", Econometrics, pp. 251-276.
• Hasio, C., (1981) "Autoregressive Modelling and Money-Income Causality Detection”, Journal of Monetary Economics. 7, pp. 85-106.
• Jones, D. J., (1989) "A Comparison of lag-Length Selection Techniques in Tests of Granger Causality Between Money Growth and Inflation Evidence for the US 1959-1986”, Applied Economics. 21, pp. 809-282.
• Ljung, G. M., and Box, G. E. P., (1978) "On aMeasure of Lack of Fit in Time Series Models", Biometrica, 65, pp. 297-303.
• Kravis, R. M., (1970) "Trade as a Handmaiden o f Growth: Similarities between the nineteenth and twentieth Centuries", Economic Journal. 80, pp. 850-872.
• Kavoussi (1984) “Export Expaxısion and Economic Growth: Further Empirical Evidence", Journal of Development Econormes. 14, pp. 241-250.
• Tyler, W. G., (1981) ”Growth and Export Expansion in Developing Countries: Some Empirical Evidences". Journal of Development Economics. 9. pp. 121-130.