Climate Change Impacts On Streamflow of Karamenderes River (Çanakkale, Turkey)

Abstract

The main objective of this study was to estimate the potential impacts of climate change due to the global warming on streamflow of Karamenderes River (Çanakkale, Turkey). A 36-years dataset belongs to the streamflow of Karamenderes River and a 43-years dataset belongs to the climatic parameters (temperature, precipitation, and evaporation) obtained from Çanakkale, Bozcaada, Gökçeada meteorological stations in Çanakkale. Time series analysis was applied to the streamflow and climatic parameters. Pettitt change point analysis was performed to detect the change time and trend analysis was applied for estimating the trends. Kendall’s tau and Spearman’s rho correlation tests were applied to find out the relationship between streamflow and the climatic parameters. Pettitt change point analysis results indicated that the change year for streamflow was 1982. Trend analysis results showed that there were decreasing trends in the streamflow and precipitation, and increasing trends in temperature and evaporation. Correlation tests results pointed out that these changes were statistically insignificant. Increasing temperature and decreasing rainfall due to the climate change caused a decrease in the streamflow of the river. In conclusion, the climate change impacts on streamflow could be variable. Also, anthropogenic effects and agricultural activities may affect the responses of the rivers to the global warming and climate change impacts. It is suggested that dam building on the rivers might be beneficial to provide more water for irrigation or other purposes in sustainable way.

Keywords

• Climate change,Global warming,Streamflow,Trend analysis,Pettitt Chang point analysis

References

1. Ağırgöl Kayacan, Y. 2008. Evaluation of Coastal Wetlands on the Peninsula of Biga-Çanakkale in Point of Human-Environment Interaction. MSc. thesis. Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University.
2. Anonymous, 2014. The Environmental Status Report of Çanakkale for 2013. Çanakkale Provincial Directorate of Environment and Urbanization, Ministry of Environment and Urbanization of Republic of Turkey, Çanakkale, Turkey, 175p.
3. Arnell, N. 2014. Hydrology and Global Environmental Change. Routledge, London and New York.
4. Bahadir, M. 2011. A Statistical Analysis of the Flow Changes of Kızılırmak River. Turkish Studies - International Periodical for the Languages, Literature and History of Turkish or Turkic, 6: 1339-1356.
5. Bates, B.C., Chandler, R.E. and A.W. Bowman. 2012. Trend estimation and change point detection in individual climatic series using flexible regression methods. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 117 (D16106): 1-9.
6. Bates, B.C., Chandler, R.E., Charles, S.P. and E.P. Campbell. 2010. Assessment of apparent nonstationarity in time series of annual inflow, daily precipitation, and atmospheric circulation indices: A case study from southwest Western Australia. Water Resources Research, 46 (W00H02): 1-15.
7. Bates, B.C., Kundzewicz, Z.W., Wu, S. and J.P. Palutikof. 2008. Climate Change and Water. 6th Technical Paper of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC Secretariat, Geneva. pp. 210.
8. Beaulieu, C., Chen, J. and J.L. Sarmiento. 2012. Change-point analysis as a tool to detect abrupt climate variations. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 370: 1228-1249.

9. Blöschl, G. and A. Montanari. 2010. Climate change impacts—throwing the dice? Hydrological Processes, 24: 374-381.
10. Box, G.E.P. and G. Jenkins. 1976. Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. Holden Day, San Francisco.
11. Bozkurt, D. and O.L. Sen. 2013. Climate change impacts in the Euphrates–Tigris Basin based on different model and scenario simulations. Journal of Hydrology, 480: 149-161.
12. Chang, H. 2007. Comparative streamflow characteristics in urbanizing basins in the Portland Metropolitan Area, Oregon, USA. Hydrological Processes, 21: 211-222.
13. Chen, H., Xiang, T., Zhou, X. and C.-Y. Xu. 2012. Impacts of climate change on the Qingjiang Watershed’s runoff change trend in China. Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment, 26: 847-858.
14. Chen, J. and A.K. Gupta. 2012. Parametric Statistical Change Point Analysis: With Applications to Genetics, Medicine, and Finance. Birkhäuser Boston, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.
15. Chen, Y. and Z. Xu. 2005. Plausible impact of global climate change on water resources in the Tarim River Basin. Science in China Series D: Earth Sciences, 48: 65-73.
16. Durdu, Ö.F. 2010. Effects of climate change on water resources of the Büyük Menderes river basin, western Turkey. Turkish Journal of Agriculture and Forestry, 34: 319-332.
17. Dügel, M. and N. Kazanci. 2004. Assessment of water quality of the Büyük Menderes River (Turkey) by using ordination and classification of macroinvertebrates and environmental variables. Journal of Freshwater Ecology, 19: 605-612.
18. Ejder, T., Kale, S., Acar, S., Hisar, O. and F. Mutlu. 2016a. Effects of Climate Change on Annual Streamflow of Kocabaş Stream (Çanakkale, Turkey). Journal of Scientific Research and Reports, 11: 1-11.
19. Ejder, T., Kale, S., Acar, S., Hisar, O. and F. Mutlu. 2016b. Restricted effects of climate change on annual streamflow of Sarıçay stream (Çanakkale, Turkey). Marine Science and Technology Bulletin, 5(1): 7-11.
20. Fealy, R. and J. Sweeney. 2005. Detection of a possible change point in atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic and its effect on Scandinavian glacier mass balance. International Journal of Climatology, 25: 1819-1833.
21. Fu, G., Barber, M.E. and S. Chen. 2007a. Impacts of Climate Change on Regional Hydrological Regimes in the Spokane River Watershed. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 12: 452-461.
22. Fu, G., Charles, S.P. and F.H. Chiew. 2007b. A two‐parameter climate elasticity of streamflow index to assess climate change effects on annual streamflow. Water Resources Research, 43 (W11419): 1-12.
23. Fu, G. and C. Liu. 1991. Impacts of Global Warming on Regional Hydrological Regime—a Case Study on Wanquanhe Basin. ACTA Geographical Sinica, 46: 277-289.
24. Gao, P., Mu, X.M., Wang, F. and R. Li. 2011. Changes in streamflow and sediment discharge and the response to human activities in the middle reaches of the Yellow River. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15: 1-10.
25. Guo, S., Wang, J., Xiong, L., Ying, A. and D. Li. 2002. A macro-scale and semi-distributed monthly water balance model to predict climate change impacts in China. Journal of Hydrology, 268: 1-15.
26. Herawati, H., Suripin and Suharyanto. 2015. Impact of Climate Change on Streamflow in the Tropical Lowland of Kapuas River, West Borneo, Indonesia. Procedia Engineering, 125: 185-192.
27. Huo, Z., Feng, S., Kang, S., Li, W. and S. Chen. 2008. Effect of climate changes and water-related human activities on annual stream flows of the Shiyang River basin in arid north-west China. Hydrological Processes, 22: 3155-3167.
28. Islam, A., Sikka, A.K., Saha, B. and A. Singh. 2012. Streamflow Response to Climate Change in the Brahmani River Basin, India. Water Resources Management, 26: 1409-1424.
29. Jackson, C.R., Meister, R. and C. Prudhomme. 2011. Modelling the effects of climate change and its uncertainty on UK Chalk groundwater resources from an ensemble of global climate model projections. Journal of Hydrology, 399: 12-28.
30. Kaçan, E., Ülkü, G. and F. Turan. 2007. Total pollution load discharged to creeks and River Buyuk Menderes near Denizli City. International Congress on River Basin Management, 2007 Antalya, TURKEY. General Directorate of State Hydraulic Works, pp. 54-63.
31. Kahya, E. and S. Kalaycı. 2004. Trend analysis of streamflow in Turkey. Journal of Hydrology, 289: 128-144.
32. Kendall, M.G. 1955. Rank Correlation Methods. Hafner Publishing Co., New York.
33. Koçman, A. and S. Sütgibi. 2012. Hydrograpic/hydrologic characteristics of Gediz river basin in the context of the environmental components – problems and suggestions. Eastern Geographical Review, 28: 155-174.
34. Levin, N. 2011. Climate-driven changes in tropical cyclone intensity shape dune activity on Earth's largest sand island. Geomorphology, 125: 239-252.
35. Li, Y., Cai, W. and E. Campbell. 2005. Statistical modeling of extreme rainfall in southwest Western Australia. Journal of Climate, 18: 852-863.
36. Liu, Z., Xu, Z., Huang, J., Charles, S.P. and G. Fu. 2010. Impacts of climate change on hydrological processes in the headwater catchment of the Tarim River basin, China. Hydrological Processes, 24: 196-208.
37. Mann, H.B. 1945. Nonparametric Tests Against Trend. Econometrica, 13: 245-259.
38. Marengo, J.A. and C.C. Camargo. 2008. Surface air temperature trends in Southern Brazil for 1960–2002. International Journal of Climatology, 28: 893-904.
39. Mitchell, J.M., Dzerdzeevskii, B., Flohn, H., Hofmeyr, W.L., Lamb, H.H., Rao, K.N. and C.C. Walléen. 1966. Climatic Change: Report of a working group of the Commission for Climatology. World Meteorological Organization. Commission for Climatology, WMO No. 195. Technical Note No. 79. 79p.
40. Mu, X., Zhang, L., McVicar, T.R., Chille, B. and P. Gau. 2007. Analysis of the impact of conservation measures on stream flow regime in catchments of the Loess Plateau, China. Hydrological Processes, 21: 2124-2134.
41. Ozkul, S. 2009. Assessment of climate change effects in Aegean river basins: the case of Gediz and Buyuk Menderes Basins. Climatic change, 97: 253-283.
42. Ozkul, S., Fistikoglu, O. and N. Harmancioglu. 2008. Evaluation of climate change effects on water resources in the case of Gediz and Büyük Menderes river basins. TMMOB 2. Su Politikaları Kongresi, 2008 Ankara, TURKEY. pp. 309-322.
43. Pettitt, A.N. 1979. A Non-Parametric Approach to the Change-Point Problem. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C (Applied Statistics), 28: 126-135.
44. Pumo, D., Caracciolo, D., Viola, F. and L.V. Noto. 2016. Climate change effects on the hydrological regime of small non-perennial river basins. Science of The Total Environment, 542, Part A: 76-92.
45. Radziejewski, M., Bardossy, A. and Z.W. Kundzewicz. 2000. Detection of change in river flow using phase randomization. Hydrological sciences journal, 45: 547-558.
46. Salarijazi, M., Akhond-Ali, A.-M., Adib, A. and A. Daneshkhah. 2012. Trend and change-point detection for the annual stream-flow series of the Karun River at the Ahvaz hydrometric station. African Journal of Agricultural Research, 7: 4540-4552.
47. Tomé, A. and P. Miranda. 2004. Piecewise linear fitting and trend changing points of climate parameters. Geophysical Research Letters, 31 (L02207): 1-4.
48. Tomozeiu, R., Busuioc, A., Marletto, V., Zinoni, F. and C. Cacciamani. 2000. Detection of changes in the summer precipitation time series of the region Emilia-Romagna, Italy. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 67: 193-200.
49. Türkeş, M. and Z. Acar Deniz. 2011. Climatology of South Marmara Division (North West Anatolia) and observed variations and trends. International Journal of Human Sciences, 8: 1579-1600.
50. Villarini, G., Smith, J.A., Serinaldi, F. and A.A. Ntelekos. 2011. Analyses of seasonal and annual maximum daily discharge records for central Europe. Journal of Hydrology, 399: 299-312.
51. Walling, D. and D. Fang,. 2003. Recent trends in the suspended sediment loads of the world's rivers. Global and Planetary Change, 39: 111-126.
52. Xu, H., Taylor, R. and Y. Xu. 2011. Quantifying uncertainty in the impacts of climate change on river discharge in sub-catchments of the Yangtze and Yellow River Basins, China. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15: 333-344.
53. Yang, Z. and Y. Saito. 2003. Response of the Huanghe (Yellow River) delta evolution to the human activities and precipitation changes. Geophysic Research Abstracts. pp. 9143.
54. Yercan, M., Dorsan, F. and M. Ul. 2004. Comparative analysis of performance criteria in irrigation schemes: a case study of Gediz river basin in Turkey. Agricultural water management, 66: 259-266.
55. Zhang, L., Lu, W., Yang, Q., An, Y., Li, D. and L. Gong. 2012. Hydrological impacts of climate change on streamflow of Dongliao River watershed in Jilin Province, China. Chinese Geographical Science, 22: 522-530.
56. Zhou, Y., Shi, C., Fan, X. and W. Shao. 2015. The influence of climate change and anthropogenic activities on annual runoff of Huangfuchuan basin in northwest China. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 120: 137-146.