Muş’da Küresel İklim Değişikliğinin Etkisiyle Sıcaklık, Yağış ve Bunlara Bağlı Olarak İklim Tiplerinde Meydana Gelebilecek Değişiklikler

Year 2025, Volume: 11 Issue: 1, 84 - 95, 28.03.2025

Sevgi Karahan

https://doi.org/10.58626/memba.1644673

Abstract

Küresel iklim değişikliği, dünya genelinde özellikle sıcaklık artışı ve yağışlardaki azalmayla birlikte iklimlerde kuraklaşmaya sebep olacak, dünyadaki bütün canlıları ve ekosistemleri etkileyecek, geri dönüşü olmayan en önemli küresel sorun olarak gösterilmektedir. Su kaynakları üzerinde büyük baskı oluşturan ve durdurulması mümkün görülmeyen bu sürecin olası etkilerinin belirlenebilmesi için öncelikle iklim tiplerindeki değişimin tahmin edilmesi ve sürecin gelişimine göre sektörel bazda önlemler alınması önerilmektedir. Bu noktadan hareketle çalışmada Muş ili genelinde günümüzdeki sıcaklık, yağış ve iklim tiplerinin (De Martone ve Emberger iklim sınıflandırmasına göre) durumu belirlenmiş, SSPs 245 ve SSPs585 senaryolarına göre 2060 ve 2100 yıllarına kadar olan süreçte bu parametrelerin nasıl değişeceği belirlenmeye çalışılmıştır. Çalışma sonucunda Muş il genelinde büyük oranda sıcaklık artışı olacağı, iklim tiplerinin kurak iklim tiplerine doğru kayacağı öngörülmektedir. Bu değişimin etkilerinin büyük oranda bitkiler üzerinde görüleceği, tarım, orman ve mera alanlarındaki etkilerin, ekonomisi büyük oranda tarım ve hayvancılığa bağlı ilde yıkıcı sonuçları olacağı tahmin edilmektedir.

Keywords

Küresel İklim değişikliği, Muş, SSPs Senaryoları, De Martone, Emberger

Possible Changes in Temperature, Precipitation and Climate Types Due to Global Climate Change in Muş

Abstract

Global climate change is shown as the most important global problem that will cause drought in climates, especially with the increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation worldwide, and will affect all living things and ecosystems in the world. In order to determine the possible effects of this process, which creates great pressure on water resources and seems impossible to stop, it is recommended that the change in climate types should be estimated first and sectoral measures should be taken according to the development of the process. Starting from this point, the study determined the current temperature, precipitation and climate types (according to De Martone and Emberger climate classification) in Muş province, and tried to determine how these parameters will change in the process until 2060 and 2100 according to the SSPs 245 and SSPs585 scenarios. As a result of the study, it is predicted that there will be a significant increase in temperature in Muş province and the climate types will shift towards arid climate types. It is estimated that the effects of this change will be seen largely on plants, and the effects on agricultural, forest and pasture areas will have devastating results in the province, whose economy is largely dependent on agriculture and animal husbandry.

Keywords

Global Climate Change, Mus, SSPs Scenarios, De Martone, Emberger

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