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Türkiye’de Cari Açık Sorununun Reel Döviz Kuru ve İhracatın İthalata Bağımlılığı Açısından Değerlendirilmesi

Year 2017, Issue: 108, 106 - 120, 01.10.2017
https://doi.org/10.33203/mfy.357671

Abstract



Çalışmada, 2003-2015 dönemi için
Türkiye’de reel döviz kurunun dış ticaret dengesi üzerindeki etkileri ile
beraber ihracatın ithalata olan bağımlılığını ara mal, tüketim malı ve hammadde
ayrımında analiz edilmesi amaçlanmıştır. Bu doğrultuda değişkenler arasındaki
ilişkiler Johansen eşbütünleşme yaklaşımı, vektör hata düzeltme modeli ve Granger
nedensellik testi ile araştırılmıştır. Bulgular; reel döviz kurunun ara mal
ihracat ve ithalatını, tüketim malı ihracat ve ithalatını ve toplam ihracat ve
ithalatı uzun dönemde etkilediğini göstermektedir.

References

  • Akbaş, Y.E. ve M. Şentürk. 2013. Türkiye'nin ithalat ve ihracat bağımlılığı: Seçilmiş ülke örnekleri üzerine ampirik bir uygulama. Ege Akademik Bakış. 13(2): 195-208
  • Akkaya, Y. ve R. Gürkaynak. 2012. Cari açık, bütçe dengesi, finansal istikrar ve para politikası: Heyecanlı bir dönemin izi. İktisat, İşletme ve Finans Dergisi. 27(315): 93-118
  • Arize, A. 2002. Imports and exports in 50 countries: Tests of cointegration and structural breaks. International Review of Economics & Finance. 11(1): 101-115
  • Barışık, S. ve E. Demircioğlu. 2006. Türkiye’de döviz kuru rejimi, konvertibilete, ihracat-ithalat ilişkisi (1980-2001), ZKÜ Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi. 2(3): 71-84
  • Çavdar, Ş.Ç. ve A.D. Aydın. 2015. Understanding the factors behind current account deficit problem: A panel logit approach on 16 OECD member countries. Procedia Economics and Finance. 30: 187–194
  • Çiftçi, N. 2014. Türkiye'de cari açık, reel döviz kuru ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiler: Eş bütünleşme analizi. Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi. 14(1): 129-142
  • Dickey, D.A. and W.A. Fuller. 1979. Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association. 74(366a): 427-431
  • Enders, W. 2003. Applied Econometric Time Series. 2nd Edition, New York: John Willey & Sons Inc.
  • Engle, R.F. and C.W.J. Granger. 1987. Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation and testing. Econometrica. 55(2): 251-276
  • Erdoğan, S. ve H. Bozkurt. 2009. Türkiye’de cari açığın belirleyicileri: MGARCH modelleri ile bir inceleme. Maliye Finans Yazıları. 84: 135-172
  • Gervais, O., L. Schembri and L. Suchanek. 2016. External stability, real exchange rate adjustment and the exchange rate regime in emerging-market economies. Journal of Development Economics. 119: 86-99
  • Gnimassoun, B. and V. Mignon. 2016. Current-account adjustments and exchange-rate misalignments. Macroeconomic Dynamics. 20: 1717–1741
  • Granger, C.W.J. 1988. Some recent developments in a concept of causality. Journal of Econometrics 39(1-2): 199-211
  • Granger, C.W.J. 1969. Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica. 37(3): 424-438
  • Granger, C.W.J and P. Newbold. 1977. Forecasting Economic Time Series. New York: Academic Press
  • Grifiths, W.E., H.R. Carter and G.C. Judge. 1993. Learning and Practicing Econometrics, New York: John Willey & Sons Inc.
  • Johansen, S. 1992. Cointegration in partial systems and the efficiency of single-equation analysis. Journal of Econometrics. 52(3): 389-402
  • Johansen, S. 1988. Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 12(2-3): 231-254
  • Johansen, S. and K. Juselius. 1990. Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration-with applications to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics. 52(2): 169-210
  • Lütkepohl, H. 2004. Applied Time Series Econometrics, Eds. Helmut Lükepohl & Markus Krätzig, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press
  • Morgan Stanley. https://www.morganstanley.com/public/Tales_from_the_Emerging_World _Fragile_Five.pdf (18/06/2016)
  • Mu, X. And H. Ye. 2013. Current account adjustment in developing countries: The role of exchange rate regimes. Economic Inquiry. 51(2 ): 1566-1581
  • Murat S., E.H. Hobikoğlu and L. Dalyancı. 2014. Structure and sustainability of current account deficit in Turkish economy. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences. 150(September): 977-984
  • Osterwald-Lenum, M. 1992. A note with quantiles of the asymptotic distribution of the maximum likelihood cointegration rank test statistics. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics. 54(3): 461-472
  • Peker, O. 2009. Türkiye’de cari açık sürdürülebilir mi? Ekonometrik bir analiz. Kocaeli Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi. 30: 164-174
  • Sims, C.A. 1972. Money, income and causality. The American Economic Review. 62(4): 540-552
  • Stock, J.H. and M.W. Watson. 1988. Testing for common trends. Journal of the American Statistical Association. 83(404): 1097-1107
  • Tan, Z., Y. Yao and S. Wei. 2015. Financial structure, corporate savings and current account imbalances. Journal of International Money and Finance. 54: 142-167

Evaluation of Current Account Deficit Problem in Turkey in terms of Real Exchange Rate and Dependency of Export to Import

Year 2017, Issue: 108, 106 - 120, 01.10.2017
https://doi.org/10.33203/mfy.357671

Abstract

In
the study, it is aimed to analyse both the impacts of the real exchange rate in Turkey on the balance of
foreign trade and the dependency of export to
import in the segregation of intermediate goods,
consumer goods, and raw material for 2003-2015 term. Accordingly, the relationships between variables are investigated
through the Johansen cointegration approach, the vector error correction model,
and the Granger causality test. The findings show that real exchange rate
influences, in the long run, the import and export of intermediate goods, the
import and export of consumer goods, and the aggregate export and import

References

  • Akbaş, Y.E. ve M. Şentürk. 2013. Türkiye'nin ithalat ve ihracat bağımlılığı: Seçilmiş ülke örnekleri üzerine ampirik bir uygulama. Ege Akademik Bakış. 13(2): 195-208
  • Akkaya, Y. ve R. Gürkaynak. 2012. Cari açık, bütçe dengesi, finansal istikrar ve para politikası: Heyecanlı bir dönemin izi. İktisat, İşletme ve Finans Dergisi. 27(315): 93-118
  • Arize, A. 2002. Imports and exports in 50 countries: Tests of cointegration and structural breaks. International Review of Economics & Finance. 11(1): 101-115
  • Barışık, S. ve E. Demircioğlu. 2006. Türkiye’de döviz kuru rejimi, konvertibilete, ihracat-ithalat ilişkisi (1980-2001), ZKÜ Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi. 2(3): 71-84
  • Çavdar, Ş.Ç. ve A.D. Aydın. 2015. Understanding the factors behind current account deficit problem: A panel logit approach on 16 OECD member countries. Procedia Economics and Finance. 30: 187–194
  • Çiftçi, N. 2014. Türkiye'de cari açık, reel döviz kuru ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiler: Eş bütünleşme analizi. Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi. 14(1): 129-142
  • Dickey, D.A. and W.A. Fuller. 1979. Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association. 74(366a): 427-431
  • Enders, W. 2003. Applied Econometric Time Series. 2nd Edition, New York: John Willey & Sons Inc.
  • Engle, R.F. and C.W.J. Granger. 1987. Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation and testing. Econometrica. 55(2): 251-276
  • Erdoğan, S. ve H. Bozkurt. 2009. Türkiye’de cari açığın belirleyicileri: MGARCH modelleri ile bir inceleme. Maliye Finans Yazıları. 84: 135-172
  • Gervais, O., L. Schembri and L. Suchanek. 2016. External stability, real exchange rate adjustment and the exchange rate regime in emerging-market economies. Journal of Development Economics. 119: 86-99
  • Gnimassoun, B. and V. Mignon. 2016. Current-account adjustments and exchange-rate misalignments. Macroeconomic Dynamics. 20: 1717–1741
  • Granger, C.W.J. 1988. Some recent developments in a concept of causality. Journal of Econometrics 39(1-2): 199-211
  • Granger, C.W.J. 1969. Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica. 37(3): 424-438
  • Granger, C.W.J and P. Newbold. 1977. Forecasting Economic Time Series. New York: Academic Press
  • Grifiths, W.E., H.R. Carter and G.C. Judge. 1993. Learning and Practicing Econometrics, New York: John Willey & Sons Inc.
  • Johansen, S. 1992. Cointegration in partial systems and the efficiency of single-equation analysis. Journal of Econometrics. 52(3): 389-402
  • Johansen, S. 1988. Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 12(2-3): 231-254
  • Johansen, S. and K. Juselius. 1990. Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration-with applications to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics. 52(2): 169-210
  • Lütkepohl, H. 2004. Applied Time Series Econometrics, Eds. Helmut Lükepohl & Markus Krätzig, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press
  • Morgan Stanley. https://www.morganstanley.com/public/Tales_from_the_Emerging_World _Fragile_Five.pdf (18/06/2016)
  • Mu, X. And H. Ye. 2013. Current account adjustment in developing countries: The role of exchange rate regimes. Economic Inquiry. 51(2 ): 1566-1581
  • Murat S., E.H. Hobikoğlu and L. Dalyancı. 2014. Structure and sustainability of current account deficit in Turkish economy. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences. 150(September): 977-984
  • Osterwald-Lenum, M. 1992. A note with quantiles of the asymptotic distribution of the maximum likelihood cointegration rank test statistics. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics. 54(3): 461-472
  • Peker, O. 2009. Türkiye’de cari açık sürdürülebilir mi? Ekonometrik bir analiz. Kocaeli Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi. 30: 164-174
  • Sims, C.A. 1972. Money, income and causality. The American Economic Review. 62(4): 540-552
  • Stock, J.H. and M.W. Watson. 1988. Testing for common trends. Journal of the American Statistical Association. 83(404): 1097-1107
  • Tan, Z., Y. Yao and S. Wei. 2015. Financial structure, corporate savings and current account imbalances. Journal of International Money and Finance. 54: 142-167
There are 28 citations in total.

Details

Journal Section Articles
Authors

Gökhan Sönmezler

Umut Akduğan This is me

İ. Orçun Gündüz

Publication Date October 1, 2017
Submission Date April 7, 2017
Published in Issue Year 2017 Issue: 108

Cite

APA Sönmezler, G., Akduğan, U., & Gündüz, İ. O. (2017). Türkiye’de Cari Açık Sorununun Reel Döviz Kuru ve İhracatın İthalata Bağımlılığı Açısından Değerlendirilmesi. Maliye Ve Finans Yazıları(108), 106-120. https://doi.org/10.33203/mfy.357671
  • The journal specializes in all the fields of finance and banking.