The Nonlinear Impact of Ecological Taxes on Greenhouse Gas Emissions: An Empirical Study on BRICS Countries

Year 2025, Issue: 124, 340 - 370, 01.10.2025

Mustafa Kurt

Abstract

This study examines the role of market-based policies (ecological taxes) in the impact of renewable energy consumption, foreign direct investments, and urban population on total greenhouse gas emissions by utilizing annual data from BRICS countries for the period 2000–2020. The analysis employs the panel threshold regression method developed by Hansen (1999). The findings reveal that the stringency of ecological taxation constitutes a significant threshold effect in the relationship between renewable energy consumption, foreign direct investments, urban population, and total greenhouse gas emissions. Specifically, under regimes with low ecological tax stringency, increases in foreign direct investments and renewable energy consumption are associated with reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, whereas urban population growth contributes to increasing emissions. Conversely, when ecological tax stringency exceeds the threshold level, the emission-reducing effect of renewable energy consumption weakens, and the emission-enhancing impact of urban population growth intensifies. Furthermore, in high ecological tax regimes, the effect of foreign direct investments on total greenhouse gas emissions is found to be statistically insignificant.

Keywords

Market-Based Policies (Environmental Taxes) , Renewable Energy Consumption , Foreign Direct Investment , Total Greenhouse Gas Emissions.

Ekolojik Vergilerin Sera Gazı Emisyonları Üzerindeki Doğrusal Olmayan Etkisi: BRICS Ülkeleri Üzerine Ampirik Bir İnceleme

Abstract

Çalışmada, yenilenebilir enerji tüketimi, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ve kentsel nüfusun toplam sera gazı emisyonları üzerindeki etkisinde piyasa tabanlı politikaların (ekolojik vergilerin) rolünü değerlendirmek amacıyla, BRICS ülkelerinin 2000-2020 dönemi yıllık verileri kullanılmıştır. Analiz kısmında kullanılan yöntem ise, Hansen’in (1999) geliştirdiği panel eşik değer analizidir. Bulgular, yenilenebilir enerji tüketimi, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ve kentsel nüfus ile toplam sera gazı emisyonları arasındaki ilişkide ekolojik vergi sıkılığının belirleyici bir eşik etkisi oluşturduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Bu kapsamda, düşük düzeyli ekolojik vergi rejimlerinde doğrudan yabancı yatırımlardaki artış ile yenilenebilir enerji tüketiminin yükselmesinin sera gazı emisyonlarını azaltıcı yönde etkide bulunduğu; buna karşılık, kentsel nüfus artışının emisyonları artırdığı gözlemlenmektedir. Öte yandan, ekolojik vergi sıkılığı eşik değerin üzerine çıktığı durumlarda yenilenebilir enerji tüketiminin emisyon azaltıcı etkisinin zayıfladığı, kentsel nüfus artışının ise emisyonları artırıcı etkisinin daha da güçlendiği tespit edilmiştir. Ayrıca, yüksek ekolojik vergi rejimlerinde, doğrudan yabancı yatırımların toplam sera gazı emisyonları üzerindeki etkisinin anlamsız olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Keywords

Piyasa Tabanlı Politikalar (Ekolojik Vergiler) , Yenilenebilir Enerji Tüketimi , Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar , Toplam Sera Gazı Emisyonları.

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