Yeşil Büyüme mi, Finansal Tuzak mı? Panel ARDL Modeli ile Kaynak Laneti Hipotezinin Yeniden Değerlendirilmesi

Year 2025, Issue: 124, 81 - 102, 01.10.2025

Orkun Bayram , Selminaz Adıgüzel , Mustafa Ruso

https://doi.org/10.33203/mfy.1696905

Abstract

Bu çalışma, 21 gelişmekte olan pazarda (2000–2020) panel ARDL yaklaşımı kullanarak yenilenebilir enerji üretimi ile finansal gelişme arasındaki uzun vadeli ilişkiyi analiz ederek kaynak laneti hipotezini yeniden ele almaktadır. Bulgular, yenilenebilir enerji üretimi ile borsa performansı arasında negatif bir ilişki olduğunu ortaya koyarken, kurumsal kalitenin finansal derinleşmeyi teşvik ettiğini göstermektedir. Bu, temiz enerjiye geçişin yapısal olarak zayıf ekonomilerde sermaye piyasasının büyümesini engelleyebileceği bir yeşil finansal tuzağı akla getirmektedir. Çalışma, çevresel sürdürülebilirliği finansal altyapı ile ilişkilendirerek, yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklı finansal dinamikler üzerine yapılan ampirik araştırmalardaki bir boşluğu doldurmaktadır. Yenilenemeyen kaynaklara bağımlılığa odaklanan önceki çalışmalardan farklı olarak, bu analiz finansal sonuçları etkileyen yapısal asimetrileri ve kurumsal faktörleri vurgulamaktadır. Politika önerileri arasında, piyasanın kırılganlığını azaltmak için şeffaflığa dayalı raporlama standartlarının ve sürdürülebilirlikle bağlantılı düzenleyici reformların getirilmesi yer almaktadır. Yeşil geçişlerin finansal karmaşıklığını vurgulayan bu çalışma, kaynak laneti çerçevesini genişletmekte ve dengeli enerji ve finansal stratejiler arayan gelişmekte olan ekonomiler için uygulanabilir içgörüler sunmaktadır.

Keywords

Yenilenebilir Enerji , Finansal Gelişme , Kaynak Laneti , Kurumsal Kalite

Green Growth or Financial Trap? Revisiting the Resource Curse Hypothesis with Evidence From a Panel Model

Abstract

This study revisits the resource curse hypothesis by analyzing the long-run relationship between renewable energy production and financial development using a panel ARDL approach across 21 emerging markets (2000–2020). Findings reveal a negative association between renewable energy generation and stock market performance, while institutional quality promotes financial deepening. This suggests a green financial trap, where clean energy transitions may hinder capital market growth in structurally weak economies. The study contributes by linking environmental sustainability with financial infrastructure, addressing a gap in empirical dynamics on renewable-driven financial dynamics. Unlike prior studies focused on non-renewable resource dependence, this analysis underscores structural asymmetries and institutional factors influencing financial outcomes. Policy recommendations include introducing transparency-based reporting standards and sustainability-linked regulatory reforms to reduce market vulnerability. By highlighting the financial complexities of green transitions, the paper expands the resource curse framework and offers actionable insights for emerging economies seeking balanced energy and financial strategies.

Keywords

Renewable Energy , Financial Development , Resource Curse , Institutional Quality

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