Türkiye’de Sektörel Enerji Kullanımındaki Değişimlerin İtici Güçleri: Ayrıştırma Analizi

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, 1970-2018 döneminde ekonomik ve demografik yapısında önemli değişiklikler meydana gelen Türkiye’de sektörel enerji kullanımındaki değişikliklerin itici güçlerini incelemek amaçlanmaktadır. Buradan hareketle çalışmada, bu değişikliklerin tarım, sanayi, konut ve hizmetler ile ulaştırma gibi birincil sektörlerdeki enerji kullanımı üzerindeki etkileri toplamsal tipte ayrıştırma analizi (Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index [LMDI]) yöntemi kullanılarak araştırılmaktadır. Analiz sonuçları; incelenen dönemde ortalama olarak sektörel enerji kullanımının her bir sektörde çıktı etkisi ile arttığını, tarım sektörü hariç diğer sektörlerde ise yoğunluk etkisi ile azaldığını göstermektedir. Diğer bir ifade ile çıktı etkisi üretim artışı kanalıyla sektörel enerji kullanımı üzerinde yoğun bir etkiye sahipken, yoğunluk etkisi sektörlerdeki enerji yoğunluğunun kısmen düşme eğilimi içinde olması nedeniyle sektörel enerji kullanımı üzerinde düşürücü bir etki yaratmaktadır. Yapısal etki ise tarım ve sanayi sektörlerinde enerji kullanımını düşürücü, konut ve hizmetler ile ulaştırma sektörlerinde ise enerji kullanımını arttırıcı etki yaratmaktadır. Sektörlerin enerji kullanımlarında meydana gelen bu etkilerin farklılaşmasının, incelenen dönemde meydana gelen yapısal dönüşüme bağlı olarak ülkenin izlediği ekonomi politikalarının farklılaşmasından kaynaklandığı düşünülmektedir.

Keywords

• Sektörel Enerji Kullanımı
• Toplamsal Tipte Ayrıştırma Analizi
• Türkiye

The Driving Forces of Changes in Energy Sector Consumption in Turkey: Decomposition Analysis

Abstract

This paper aims to investigate the driving forces of changes in energy sector consumption in Turkey for the 1970-2018 period when significant changes occurred in the economic and demographic structure of the country. For this purpose, the study investigates the effects of these changes on energy consumption in primary sectors such as agriculture, industry, housing and services, and transportation using the additive version of the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition analysis. The results of analysis show that on average, energy consumption increased with the influence of the volume of output in each sector, whereas it is decreased with the influence of intensity in sectors except agriculture. In other words, while the output effect has an intense influence on the energy consumption sector through the increase in production, the intensity effect has a decreasing influence on the energy consumption sector due to the decreasing tendency of the energy density in sectors. The structural effect, on the other hand, creates an effect that decreases energy consumption in agriculture and industry sectors, and increases energy consumption in housing and services and transportation sectors. It is thought that the differentiation of these effects occurring in the energy use of the sectors is due to the differentiation of the economic policies followed by the country depending on the structural transformation that occurred in the period examined.

Keywords

• Energy Consumption Sector
• Additive Version of the Decomposition Analysis
• Turkey.

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