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Türki Cumhuriyetlerinde Dış Borç Sürdürülebilirlik Analizi: Doğrusal Olmayan Panel Birim Kök Testi

Year 2021, , 1725 - 1734, 30.07.2021

Gökhan Konat

https://doi.org/10.33206/mjss.865129
Cited By: 1

Abstract

 Ülke bazında dış borçlar artmaya başladığında politika yapıcılar kısıtlayıcı mali politikalar izlemektedir. Dış borçla mücadele politikaları için daha fazla kanıt sağlamak adına, dış borçların sürdürülebilirliği konusu literatürde dikkat çeken konulardan birisidir. Bu amaçla 1996-2019 dönemini kapsayan yıllık verilerle Türki Cumhuriyetlerde dış borcun sürdürülebilir olup olmadığı araştırılmak istenmektedir. Bunun için Dünya Bankası resmi veri tabanından elde edilen veri seti doğrusal olmayan panel birim kök analizi ile sınanmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre serinin durağan olduğu görülmektedir. Bu ampirik sonuçlara göre Türki Cumhuriyetleri içeren ülke grubu için dış borcun sürdürülebilir olduğu sonucuna varılmaktadır.

Keywords

Dış Borç Sürdürülebilirlik Türki Cumhuriyetleri Doğrusal Olmayan Panel Birim Kök

References

  • Arize, A.C. (2002). Test of cointegration and structural breaks. International Review of Economics and Finance, 11, 101–15. doi:10.1016/S1059-0560(01)00101-0
  • Boengiu, T., Triandafil, C. M., ve Triandafil, A. M. (2011). Debt ceiling and external debt sustainability in Romania: a quantile autoregression model. Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 4, 15-29. Erişim adresi: http://www.rjef.ro/rjef/rjef4_11/rjef4_2011p15-29.pdf
  • Breuer, J. B., McNown, R. ve Wallace, M. S. (2001). Misleading Inferences from Panel Unit‐Root Tests with an Illustration from Purchasing Power Parity. Review of International Economics, 9(3), 482-493. doi: 10.1111/1467-9396.00294
  • Breuer, J. B., McNown, R. ve Wallace, M. (2002). Series‐Specific Unit Root Tests with Panel Data. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and statistics, 64(5), 527-546. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9396.2006.00588.x
  • Buiter, W. H., ve Patel, U. R. (1992). Debt, deficits, and inflation: an application to the public finances of India. Journal of public Economics, 47(2), 171-205. Erişim adresi: https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w3287/w3287.pdf
  • Caporale, G. M. (1995). Bubble finance and debt sustainability: a test of the government's intertemporal budget constraint. Applied Economics, 27(12), 1135-1143. doi:10.1080/00036849500000096
  • Göktaş, Ö., ve Hepsağ, A. (2015). The analysis of external debt sustainability by periodic unit root test with structural break: The case of Turkey. Research in Applied Economics, 7(4), 1-15. doi:10.5296/rae.v7i4.8123
  • Hamilton, J.D., ve Flavin, M.A. (1986), On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Hamework for Empirical Testing. American Economic Review, 76(4), 808-819. Erişim adresi: https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.416.2165&rep=rep1&type=pdf
  • International Monetary Fund. (2002). Assessing sustainability. Policy Department and Review Department. Washington, USA.
  • Kapetanios G., Shin Y. ve Snell A. (2003). Testing for a Unit Root in the Nonlinear STAR Framework. Journal of Econometrics, 112, 359-379. Doi: 10.1016/S0304-4076(02)00202-6
  • Kıran, B. (2012). The sustainability of Turkish external debt: evidence from fractionally integrated approach under structural breaks. Economic research-Ekonomska istraživanja, 25(1), 18-29. Erişim adresi: https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2012.11517491
  • Lau, E., ve Baharumshah, A. Z. (2005). Mean-reverting behavior of current account in Asian countries. Economics Letters, 87(3), 367-371. Erişim adresi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2005.01.006
  • Lau, E., Baharumshah, A. Z., ve Soon, S. V. (2013). The behavior of external debt in Asian countries: evidence based on panel unit root tests. Journal of Business Economics and Management, 14(sup1), S377-S394. Erişim adresi: https://doi.org/10.3846/16111699.2012.720589
  • Lin, M. Y. (2014). The Sustainability of External Debt in OECD Countries: Evidence from Quantile Autoregression. Research in World Economy, 5(2), 31-42. doi:10.5430/rwe.v5n2p31
  • Mohammadi, H., Cak, M., & Cak, D. (2007). Capital mobility and foreign debt sustainabilty: some evidence from Turkey. Applied Economics, 39(19), 2441-2449. doi: 10.1080/00036840600707274
  • Nasir, A., ve Noman, A. M. (2012). Sustainability of external debt: further evidence from non-linear framework. International Review of Applied Economics, 26(5), 673-685. doi: 10.1080/02692171.2012.665853
  • Önel, G., ve Utkulu, U. (2006). Modeling the long-run sustainability of Turkish external debt with structural changes. Economic Modelling, 23(4), 669-682. Erişim adresi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2006.03.006
  • Pradelli, J.J., (2006), “On External Debt Sustainability and the Argentine Crisis”, Erişim adresi: http://193.205.83.2/~confeco/papers/pradelli.pdf
  • Sawada, Y. (1994). Are the heavily indebted countries solvent?: Tests of intertemporal borrowing constraints. Journal of Development Economics, 45(2), 325-337. Erişim adresi: https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3878(94)90036-1
  • Takeuchi, F. (2010). US external debt sustainability revisited: Bayesian analysis of extended Markov switching unit root test. Japan and the World Economy, 22(2), 98-106. doi: 10.1016/j.japwor.2009.12.001
  • Trehan, B., ve Walsh, C. (1988). Common trends, the government’s budget constraint, and revenue smoothing. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12 (2–3), 425–444. Erişim adresi: https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-1889(88)90048-6
  • Trehan, B., ve Walsh, C. (1991). Testing intertemporal budget constraints: Theory and applications to U.S. federal budget and current account deficits. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 23 (2), 206–223. Erişim adresi: https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/1992777.pdf?refreqid=excelsior%3A74b569d951d80c860280f35c1c9c1f81
  • Wu, J. L. (2000). Mean reversion of the current account: evidence from the panel data unit-root test. Economics Letters, 66(2), 215-222. Erişim adresi: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-1765(99)00198-6
  • Wu, J. L. ve Lee, H. Y. (2009). A Revisit to the Non-Linear Mean Reversion of Real Exchange Rates: Evidence From A Series-Specific Non-Linear Panel Unit-Root Test, Journal of Macroeconomics, 31 (2009) 591–601. doi: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2008.12.002
  • Yalçınkaya, Ö. (2019). Türkiye Ekonomisinde Dış Borçların Sürdürülebilirliğinin Analizi: Doğrusal ve Doğrusal Olmayan Birim Kök Testlerinden Kanıtlar (1970-2018). Maliye Dergisi, 176, 27-51. Erişim adresi: https://ms.hmb.gov.tr/uploads/2019/09/176-02.pdf
  • Yılancı, V., ve Özcan, B. (2008). External debt sustainability of Turkey: A nonlinear approach. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 20(10), 91-99. Erişim adresi: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/200444383_External_Debt_Sustainability_of_Turkey_A_Nonlinear_Approach

Year 2021, , 1725 - 1734, 30.07.2021

Gökhan Konat

https://doi.org/10.33206/mjss.865129
Cited By: 1

Abstract

References

  • Arize, A.C. (2002). Test of cointegration and structural breaks. International Review of Economics and Finance, 11, 101–15. doi:10.1016/S1059-0560(01)00101-0
  • Boengiu, T., Triandafil, C. M., ve Triandafil, A. M. (2011). Debt ceiling and external debt sustainability in Romania: a quantile autoregression model. Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 4, 15-29. Erişim adresi: http://www.rjef.ro/rjef/rjef4_11/rjef4_2011p15-29.pdf
  • Breuer, J. B., McNown, R. ve Wallace, M. S. (2001). Misleading Inferences from Panel Unit‐Root Tests with an Illustration from Purchasing Power Parity. Review of International Economics, 9(3), 482-493. doi: 10.1111/1467-9396.00294
  • Breuer, J. B., McNown, R. ve Wallace, M. (2002). Series‐Specific Unit Root Tests with Panel Data. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and statistics, 64(5), 527-546. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9396.2006.00588.x
  • Buiter, W. H., ve Patel, U. R. (1992). Debt, deficits, and inflation: an application to the public finances of India. Journal of public Economics, 47(2), 171-205. Erişim adresi: https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w3287/w3287.pdf
  • Caporale, G. M. (1995). Bubble finance and debt sustainability: a test of the government's intertemporal budget constraint. Applied Economics, 27(12), 1135-1143. doi:10.1080/00036849500000096
  • Göktaş, Ö., ve Hepsağ, A. (2015). The analysis of external debt sustainability by periodic unit root test with structural break: The case of Turkey. Research in Applied Economics, 7(4), 1-15. doi:10.5296/rae.v7i4.8123
  • Hamilton, J.D., ve Flavin, M.A. (1986), On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Hamework for Empirical Testing. American Economic Review, 76(4), 808-819. Erişim adresi: https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.416.2165&rep=rep1&type=pdf
  • International Monetary Fund. (2002). Assessing sustainability. Policy Department and Review Department. Washington, USA.
  • Kapetanios G., Shin Y. ve Snell A. (2003). Testing for a Unit Root in the Nonlinear STAR Framework. Journal of Econometrics, 112, 359-379. Doi: 10.1016/S0304-4076(02)00202-6
  • Kıran, B. (2012). The sustainability of Turkish external debt: evidence from fractionally integrated approach under structural breaks. Economic research-Ekonomska istraživanja, 25(1), 18-29. Erişim adresi: https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2012.11517491
  • Lau, E., ve Baharumshah, A. Z. (2005). Mean-reverting behavior of current account in Asian countries. Economics Letters, 87(3), 367-371. Erişim adresi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2005.01.006
  • Lau, E., Baharumshah, A. Z., ve Soon, S. V. (2013). The behavior of external debt in Asian countries: evidence based on panel unit root tests. Journal of Business Economics and Management, 14(sup1), S377-S394. Erişim adresi: https://doi.org/10.3846/16111699.2012.720589
  • Lin, M. Y. (2014). The Sustainability of External Debt in OECD Countries: Evidence from Quantile Autoregression. Research in World Economy, 5(2), 31-42. doi:10.5430/rwe.v5n2p31
  • Mohammadi, H., Cak, M., & Cak, D. (2007). Capital mobility and foreign debt sustainabilty: some evidence from Turkey. Applied Economics, 39(19), 2441-2449. doi: 10.1080/00036840600707274
  • Nasir, A., ve Noman, A. M. (2012). Sustainability of external debt: further evidence from non-linear framework. International Review of Applied Economics, 26(5), 673-685. doi: 10.1080/02692171.2012.665853
  • Önel, G., ve Utkulu, U. (2006). Modeling the long-run sustainability of Turkish external debt with structural changes. Economic Modelling, 23(4), 669-682. Erişim adresi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2006.03.006
  • Pradelli, J.J., (2006), “On External Debt Sustainability and the Argentine Crisis”, Erişim adresi: http://193.205.83.2/~confeco/papers/pradelli.pdf
  • Sawada, Y. (1994). Are the heavily indebted countries solvent?: Tests of intertemporal borrowing constraints. Journal of Development Economics, 45(2), 325-337. Erişim adresi: https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3878(94)90036-1
  • Takeuchi, F. (2010). US external debt sustainability revisited: Bayesian analysis of extended Markov switching unit root test. Japan and the World Economy, 22(2), 98-106. doi: 10.1016/j.japwor.2009.12.001
  • Trehan, B., ve Walsh, C. (1988). Common trends, the government’s budget constraint, and revenue smoothing. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12 (2–3), 425–444. Erişim adresi: https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-1889(88)90048-6
  • Trehan, B., ve Walsh, C. (1991). Testing intertemporal budget constraints: Theory and applications to U.S. federal budget and current account deficits. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 23 (2), 206–223. Erişim adresi: https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/1992777.pdf?refreqid=excelsior%3A74b569d951d80c860280f35c1c9c1f81
  • Wu, J. L. (2000). Mean reversion of the current account: evidence from the panel data unit-root test. Economics Letters, 66(2), 215-222. Erişim adresi: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-1765(99)00198-6
  • Wu, J. L. ve Lee, H. Y. (2009). A Revisit to the Non-Linear Mean Reversion of Real Exchange Rates: Evidence From A Series-Specific Non-Linear Panel Unit-Root Test, Journal of Macroeconomics, 31 (2009) 591–601. doi: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2008.12.002
  • Yalçınkaya, Ö. (2019). Türkiye Ekonomisinde Dış Borçların Sürdürülebilirliğinin Analizi: Doğrusal ve Doğrusal Olmayan Birim Kök Testlerinden Kanıtlar (1970-2018). Maliye Dergisi, 176, 27-51. Erişim adresi: https://ms.hmb.gov.tr/uploads/2019/09/176-02.pdf
  • Yılancı, V., ve Özcan, B. (2008). External debt sustainability of Turkey: A nonlinear approach. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 20(10), 91-99. Erişim adresi: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/200444383_External_Debt_Sustainability_of_Turkey_A_Nonlinear_Approach
There are 26 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Gökhan Konat 0000-0002-0964-7893

Publication Date July 30, 2021
Submission Date January 20, 2021
Published in Issue Year 2021

Cite

APA Konat, G. (2021). Türki Cumhuriyetlerinde Dış Borç Sürdürülebilirlik Analizi: Doğrusal Olmayan Panel Birim Kök Testi. MANAS Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 10(3), 1725-1734. https://doi.org/10.33206/mjss.865129
AMA Konat G. Türki Cumhuriyetlerinde Dış Borç Sürdürülebilirlik Analizi: Doğrusal Olmayan Panel Birim Kök Testi. MJSS. July 2021;10(3):1725-1734. doi:10.33206/mjss.865129
Chicago Konat, Gökhan. “Türki Cumhuriyetlerinde Dış Borç Sürdürülebilirlik Analizi: Doğrusal Olmayan Panel Birim Kök Testi”. MANAS Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi 10, no. 3 (July 2021): 1725-34. https://doi.org/10.33206/mjss.865129.
EndNote Konat G (July 1, 2021) Türki Cumhuriyetlerinde Dış Borç Sürdürülebilirlik Analizi: Doğrusal Olmayan Panel Birim Kök Testi. MANAS Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi 10 3 1725–1734.
IEEE G. Konat, “Türki Cumhuriyetlerinde Dış Borç Sürdürülebilirlik Analizi: Doğrusal Olmayan Panel Birim Kök Testi”, MJSS, vol. 10, no. 3, pp. 1725–1734, 2021, doi: 10.33206/mjss.865129.
ISNAD Konat, Gökhan. “Türki Cumhuriyetlerinde Dış Borç Sürdürülebilirlik Analizi: Doğrusal Olmayan Panel Birim Kök Testi”. MANAS Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi 10/3 (July 2021), 1725-1734. https://doi.org/10.33206/mjss.865129.
JAMA Konat G. Türki Cumhuriyetlerinde Dış Borç Sürdürülebilirlik Analizi: Doğrusal Olmayan Panel Birim Kök Testi. MJSS. 2021;10:1725–1734.
MLA Konat, Gökhan. “Türki Cumhuriyetlerinde Dış Borç Sürdürülebilirlik Analizi: Doğrusal Olmayan Panel Birim Kök Testi”. MANAS Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, vol. 10, no. 3, 2021, pp. 1725-34, doi:10.33206/mjss.865129.
Vancouver Konat G. Türki Cumhuriyetlerinde Dış Borç Sürdürülebilirlik Analizi: Doğrusal Olmayan Panel Birim Kök Testi. MJSS. 2021;10(3):1725-34.

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MANAS Journal of Social Studies (MANAS Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi)     


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