THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FOREIGN TRADE, EXCHANGE RATE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN KYRGYZSTAN AND KAZAKHSTAN

Year 2016, Volume: 5 Issue: 3, 89 - 101, 01.07.2016

Junus Ganiyev

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to study and comparatively analyze the relationships between exchange rate, import, export and GDP in Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan, with ARDL cointegration approach. The results showed that foreign trade has positive impact on economic growth in Kyrgyzstan, both in the short and in the long term, whereas Kazakhstan imports play a greater role in economic growth. On the other hand, it revealed that export in Kyrgyzstan in the short term depends on the GDP and imports; in the long term re-export is coming to the fore. Also, it turned out that volatility of exchange rates in Kyrgyzstan, increasing uncertainties and risks, have a negative impact on economic growth, while devaluation in Kazakhstan reduce imports in the short and long run

Keywords

export, import, gross domestic product, ARDL cointegration approach, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan

Kırgızistan ve Kazakistan’da Dış Ticaret, Döviz Kuru ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki

Abstract

Bu çalışmada Kırgızistan ve Kazakistan’da döviz kuru, ithalat, ihracat ve GSYİH ilişkileri ARDL koentegrasyon testi yaklaşımıyla incelenerek iki ülke arasında mukayeseli analiz yapılması amaçlanmıştır. Analiz sonuçlarına göre, Kırgızistan’da hem kısa hem uzun dönemde dış ticaretin ekonomik büyümeyi olumlu etkilediği; Kazakistan’da ise büyümede ithalatın daha büyük rolünün olduğu ortaya çıkmıştır. Ayrıca, Kırgızistan’ın ihracatı kısa dönemde GSYİH ile ithalattan etkilenirken, uzun dönemde reeksportun öneminin arttığı görülmüştür. Son olarak, döviz kurundaki değişmelerin Kırgızistan’da belirsizlikleri artırarak kısa dönemde ekonomik büyümeyi olumsuz etkilediği; Kazakistan’da ise devalüasyonların hem kısa hem de uzun dönemde ithalatı caydırdığı tespit edilmiştir

Keywords

ihracat, ithalat, Gayri Safi Yurtiçi Hasıla, ARDL koentegrasyon yaklaşımı, Kırgızistan, Kazakistan

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