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External Debt and Economic Growth in Transition Countries: Case of Kyrgyzstan

Year 2020, Volume: 9 Issue: 1, 60 - 75, 27.01.2020
https://doi.org/10.33206/mjss.581860

Abstract


In many developing
countries out of shortage of savings and capital external resources as external
debt, foreign direct investment and transfers are play significant role in the
fostering economic growth and development. Goal of this paper is to investigate
the impact of external public debt, current transfers and foreign direct investments
on GDP in the Kyrgyz Republic. Using quarterly data for the period
2000Q1-2017Q3 and the ARDL cointegration approach it was found that a
cointegration relation between current transfers, external debt, FDI and GDP.
According to results, current transfers’ contribution to the country’s economy
is more than government debts. It is suggested that the government should focus
more on foreign direct investments than foreign debts and current transfers by
considering the long term.

References

  • Abdelhafidh, S. (2014). “External Debt and Economic Growth in Tunisia”, Panoeconomicus, Vol. 6, pp. 669–689, doi: 10.2298/PAN1406669A.
  • Acar, M. (2016). “Doğrudan Yabancı Sermayenin Ekonomik Büyümeye Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği”, Kastamonu Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, Vol. 13, pp. 92–105.
  • Afşar, M. (2008). “The Causality Relationship between Economic Growth and Foreign Direct Investment in Turkey”, Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, Vol. 20, pp. 1–9.
  • Akbas, Y.E., Senturk M., Canan S. (2013). “Testing for Causality between the Foreign Direct Investment, Current Account Deficit, GDP and Total Credit: Evidence from G7”, Panoeconomicus,Vol. 6, pp. 791–812, doi: 10.2298/PAN1306791A.
  • Alfaro, L., Charlton, A. (2007). “Growth And The Quality of Foreign Direct Investment: Is All FDI Equal?”, CEP Discussion Paper, No.830, November.
  • Anwar, S., Nguyen, L.P. (2010). “Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth in Vietnam”, Asia Pacific Business Review, Vol.16 No. 1-2, pp. 183–202, doi: 10.1080/10438590802511031.
  • Azeez, B., Oladapo F., Olufemi A. A. (2015). “External Debt or Foreign Direct Investment: Which Has Greater Significant Economic Impact on Nigeria?”, European Scientific Journal, Vol. 11, No. 19, pp. 185–195.
  • Bakar, N.A., Sallahuddin, H. (2008). “Empirical Evaluation on External Debt of Malaysia”, International Business & Economics Research Journal, Vol. 7, No. 2, pp. 95–108, doi: 10.19030/iber.v7i2.3226.
  • Balasubramanyam, N., Solisu M., Sapsford D. (1996). “Foreign Direct Investment in EP and IS Countries”, The Economic Journal, Vol. 106, No. 434, pp. 92–105.
  • Basu, P., Chandana C., Reagle D. (2003). “Liberalization, FDI and Growth in Developing Countries: A Panel Cointegration Approach”, Economic Inquiry, Vol: 41, No. 3, pp. 510–516, doi: 10.1093/ei/cbg024.
  • Bilginoğlu, M.A., Aysu, A. (2008). “Dış Borçların Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği”, Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, Vol. 31, pp. 1–23.
  • Çeştepe, H., Ertuğrul Y., Bayar M. (2013). “Doğrudan Yabanci Yatırım, Ekonomik Büyüme ve Dış Ticaret: Toda-Yamamoto Yaklaşımıyla Türkiye’den Nedensellik Kanıtları”, Akdeniz Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakultesi Dergisi, Vol. 13 No. 27, pp. 1–37.
  • Dickey, D.A., Fuller, W.A. (1979). “Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 74, pp. 427–431.
  • Dönmez, A. (2009). “Doğrudan Yabancı Sermaye Yatırımlarının Ekonomik Büyüme ve Dış Ticaret Üzerine Olan Etkileri: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Uygulama”. Unpublished Master Thesis (in Turkish), Çukurova Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü İktisat Anabilim Dalı, Adana. (Available at: http://library.cu.edu.tr/tezler/7309.pdf, Accessed: 3 October 2017)
  • Gül, E., Kamacı A., Konya S. (2012). “Dış Borcun Büyüme Üzerine Etkileri: Orta Asya Cumhuriyetleri ve Türkiye Örneği”, Proceedings book of International Conference on Eurasian Economies, pp. 169–174.
  • Gürdal, T., Yavuz, H. (2015). “Türkiye’de Dış Borçlanma-Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: 1990-2013 Dönemi”, Maliye Dergisi, Vol. 168, pp. 154–169.
  • Hamilton, J.D. (1994) Time Series Analysis, Princeton University Press.
  • Hsiao, C., Yan, S. (2003). “Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: The Importance of Institutions and Urbanizations”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, Vol. 51, No. 4, pp. 883–896, doi: 10.1086/375711.
  • Jilenga, M.T., Xu H., Gondje-Dacka I.M. (2016). “The Impact of External Debt and Foreign Direct Investment on Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Tanzania”, International Journal of Financial Research, Vol. 7, No. 2, pp. 154–162, doi: 10.5430/ijfr.v7n2p154.
  • Karagoz, M., Caglar, M. (2016). “Does Debt Really Crack the Whip? Evidence from a Panel of Selected OECD Countries”, Procedia Economics and Finance, Vol. 38, pp. 430–437, doi: 10.1016/S2212-5671(16)30214-3.
  • Kempa, B., Nazmus, S.K. (2016). “Government Debt and Economic Growth in the G7 Countries: Are There Any Causal Linkages?”, Applied Economics Letters, Vol. 23, No. 6, pp. 440–443, doi: 10.1080/13504851.2015.1080797.
  • Kutlu, S., Yurttagüler, İ,M. (2016). “Türkiye’de Dış Borç ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: 1998-2014 Dönemi İçin Bir Nedensellik Analizi”, M.U. Iktisadi ve Idari Bilimler Dergisi, Vol: 38, No. 1, pp. 229–248, doi: 10.14780/iibd.69945.
  • Lensink, R., Morrissey, O. (2001). “Foreign Direct Investment: Flows, Volatility and Growth in Developing Countries”, Research Report 01E16, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
  • MacKinnon, J.G. (1991). “Critical Values for Cointegration Tests”, Chapter 13 in R. F. Engle and C. W. J. Granger (eds.), Long-run Economic Relationships: Readings in Cointegration, Oxford: Oxford University Press.
  • MacKinnon, J.G. (1996). “Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol. 11, pp. 601–618.
  • Narayan, P.K. (2005). “The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests”, Applied Economics, Vol. 37, No. 17, pp. 1979–1990, doi: 10.1080/00036840500278103.
  • Nelson, C.R., Plosser, C.I. (1982). “Trend and Random Walks in Macroeconomic Time Series”, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 10, pp. 139–162.
  • Ogunmuyiwa, M.S. (2011). “Does External Debt Promote Economic Growth in Nigeria?”, Current Research Journal of Economic Theory, Vol. 3, No. 1, pp. 29–35.
  • Örnek, İ. (2008). “Yabancı Sermaye Akımlarının Yurtiçi Tasarruf ve Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerine Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği”, A.Ü. SBF Dergisi, Vol. 63, No. 2, pp. 199–207.
  • Perron, P. (1989). “The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock and the Unit Root Hypothesis”, Econometrica, Vol. 57, pp. 1361–1401.
  • Pesaran, H.M., Pesaran B. (1997). Working with Microfit 4.0, Interactive Econometric Analysis, Oxford: Oxford University Press.
  • Pesaran, H.M., Shin Y., Smith R.J. (2001). “Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol. 16, No. 3, pp. 289–326, doi: 10.1002/jae.616.
  • Pesaran, H.M., Shin, Y. (1995). “Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis”, DAE Working Paper Series No.9514, Cambridge: Department of Applied Economics, University of Cambridge.
  • Pesaran, H.M., Shin, Y. (1999). “Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis”, Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • Phillips, P.C.B., Perron P. (1988). “Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression”, Biometrika, Vol. 75, pp. 335–346.
  • Siddique, A., Selvanathan E.A., Selvanathan S. (2015). “The Impact Of External Debt On Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence From Highly Indebted Poor Countries”, The University of Western Australia, Economics, No 15-10, Economics Discussion / Working Papers, (Available at: https://econpapers.repec.org/paper/uwawpaper/15-10.htm, Accessed: 3 October 2017)
  • Vergil, H., Karaca, C. (2010). “Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelere Yönelik Uluslararası Sermaye Hareketlerinin Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi: Panel Veri Analizi”, Ege Akademik Bakış, Vol. 10, No. 4, pp. 1207–1216, doi: 10.21121/eab.2010419606.
  • Yalçın, E. (2005). “İktisadi Büyüme ve Dış Krediler: Ampirik Bir Çalısma”. Research Notes in Economics (in Turkish), Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  • Zaman, R., Arslan, M. (2014). “The Role of External Debt on Economic Growth: Evidence From Pakistan Economy”, Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, Vol. 5, No. 24, pp. 140–148.
  • Zivot, E., Andrews, D. (1992). “Further Evidence of Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock and Unit Root Hypothesis”, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Vol. 10, pp. 251–270.

External Debt and Economic Growth in Transition Countries: Case of Kyrgyzstan

Year 2020, Volume: 9 Issue: 1, 60 - 75, 27.01.2020
https://doi.org/10.33206/mjss.581860

Abstract

Birçok
gelişmekte olan ülkede tasarruf ve sermaye yetersizliğinden dolayı dış borç,
doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ve transferler gibi dış kaynaklar ekonomik büyüme
ve kalkınmanın desteklenmesinde önemli rol oynamaktadır. Bu çalışmanın amacı,
Kırgız Cumhuriyeti’nde dış kamu borcunun, cari transferlerin ve doğrudan
yabancı yatırımların GSYİH üzerindeki etkisini araştırmaktır. 2000Q1-2017Q3
dönemi çeyrek verileri ve ARDL eşbütünleşme yaklaşımı kullanılarak cari
transferler, dış borç, DYY ve GSYİH arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisi olduğu tespit
edilmiştir.
Sonuçlara göre, cari transferlerin ülke ekonomisine
olan katkısı devlet borçlarından daha yüksektir. Hükümetin uzun vadeyi göz
önünde bulundurarak dış borçlara ve cari transferlere göre doğrudan yabancı
yatırımların artırılmasına daha fazla odaklanması gerektiği önerilmektedir.

References

  • Abdelhafidh, S. (2014). “External Debt and Economic Growth in Tunisia”, Panoeconomicus, Vol. 6, pp. 669–689, doi: 10.2298/PAN1406669A.
  • Acar, M. (2016). “Doğrudan Yabancı Sermayenin Ekonomik Büyümeye Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği”, Kastamonu Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, Vol. 13, pp. 92–105.
  • Afşar, M. (2008). “The Causality Relationship between Economic Growth and Foreign Direct Investment in Turkey”, Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, Vol. 20, pp. 1–9.
  • Akbas, Y.E., Senturk M., Canan S. (2013). “Testing for Causality between the Foreign Direct Investment, Current Account Deficit, GDP and Total Credit: Evidence from G7”, Panoeconomicus,Vol. 6, pp. 791–812, doi: 10.2298/PAN1306791A.
  • Alfaro, L., Charlton, A. (2007). “Growth And The Quality of Foreign Direct Investment: Is All FDI Equal?”, CEP Discussion Paper, No.830, November.
  • Anwar, S., Nguyen, L.P. (2010). “Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth in Vietnam”, Asia Pacific Business Review, Vol.16 No. 1-2, pp. 183–202, doi: 10.1080/10438590802511031.
  • Azeez, B., Oladapo F., Olufemi A. A. (2015). “External Debt or Foreign Direct Investment: Which Has Greater Significant Economic Impact on Nigeria?”, European Scientific Journal, Vol. 11, No. 19, pp. 185–195.
  • Bakar, N.A., Sallahuddin, H. (2008). “Empirical Evaluation on External Debt of Malaysia”, International Business & Economics Research Journal, Vol. 7, No. 2, pp. 95–108, doi: 10.19030/iber.v7i2.3226.
  • Balasubramanyam, N., Solisu M., Sapsford D. (1996). “Foreign Direct Investment in EP and IS Countries”, The Economic Journal, Vol. 106, No. 434, pp. 92–105.
  • Basu, P., Chandana C., Reagle D. (2003). “Liberalization, FDI and Growth in Developing Countries: A Panel Cointegration Approach”, Economic Inquiry, Vol: 41, No. 3, pp. 510–516, doi: 10.1093/ei/cbg024.
  • Bilginoğlu, M.A., Aysu, A. (2008). “Dış Borçların Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği”, Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, Vol. 31, pp. 1–23.
  • Çeştepe, H., Ertuğrul Y., Bayar M. (2013). “Doğrudan Yabanci Yatırım, Ekonomik Büyüme ve Dış Ticaret: Toda-Yamamoto Yaklaşımıyla Türkiye’den Nedensellik Kanıtları”, Akdeniz Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakultesi Dergisi, Vol. 13 No. 27, pp. 1–37.
  • Dickey, D.A., Fuller, W.A. (1979). “Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 74, pp. 427–431.
  • Dönmez, A. (2009). “Doğrudan Yabancı Sermaye Yatırımlarının Ekonomik Büyüme ve Dış Ticaret Üzerine Olan Etkileri: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Uygulama”. Unpublished Master Thesis (in Turkish), Çukurova Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü İktisat Anabilim Dalı, Adana. (Available at: http://library.cu.edu.tr/tezler/7309.pdf, Accessed: 3 October 2017)
  • Gül, E., Kamacı A., Konya S. (2012). “Dış Borcun Büyüme Üzerine Etkileri: Orta Asya Cumhuriyetleri ve Türkiye Örneği”, Proceedings book of International Conference on Eurasian Economies, pp. 169–174.
  • Gürdal, T., Yavuz, H. (2015). “Türkiye’de Dış Borçlanma-Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: 1990-2013 Dönemi”, Maliye Dergisi, Vol. 168, pp. 154–169.
  • Hamilton, J.D. (1994) Time Series Analysis, Princeton University Press.
  • Hsiao, C., Yan, S. (2003). “Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: The Importance of Institutions and Urbanizations”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, Vol. 51, No. 4, pp. 883–896, doi: 10.1086/375711.
  • Jilenga, M.T., Xu H., Gondje-Dacka I.M. (2016). “The Impact of External Debt and Foreign Direct Investment on Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Tanzania”, International Journal of Financial Research, Vol. 7, No. 2, pp. 154–162, doi: 10.5430/ijfr.v7n2p154.
  • Karagoz, M., Caglar, M. (2016). “Does Debt Really Crack the Whip? Evidence from a Panel of Selected OECD Countries”, Procedia Economics and Finance, Vol. 38, pp. 430–437, doi: 10.1016/S2212-5671(16)30214-3.
  • Kempa, B., Nazmus, S.K. (2016). “Government Debt and Economic Growth in the G7 Countries: Are There Any Causal Linkages?”, Applied Economics Letters, Vol. 23, No. 6, pp. 440–443, doi: 10.1080/13504851.2015.1080797.
  • Kutlu, S., Yurttagüler, İ,M. (2016). “Türkiye’de Dış Borç ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: 1998-2014 Dönemi İçin Bir Nedensellik Analizi”, M.U. Iktisadi ve Idari Bilimler Dergisi, Vol: 38, No. 1, pp. 229–248, doi: 10.14780/iibd.69945.
  • Lensink, R., Morrissey, O. (2001). “Foreign Direct Investment: Flows, Volatility and Growth in Developing Countries”, Research Report 01E16, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
  • MacKinnon, J.G. (1991). “Critical Values for Cointegration Tests”, Chapter 13 in R. F. Engle and C. W. J. Granger (eds.), Long-run Economic Relationships: Readings in Cointegration, Oxford: Oxford University Press.
  • MacKinnon, J.G. (1996). “Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol. 11, pp. 601–618.
  • Narayan, P.K. (2005). “The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests”, Applied Economics, Vol. 37, No. 17, pp. 1979–1990, doi: 10.1080/00036840500278103.
  • Nelson, C.R., Plosser, C.I. (1982). “Trend and Random Walks in Macroeconomic Time Series”, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 10, pp. 139–162.
  • Ogunmuyiwa, M.S. (2011). “Does External Debt Promote Economic Growth in Nigeria?”, Current Research Journal of Economic Theory, Vol. 3, No. 1, pp. 29–35.
  • Örnek, İ. (2008). “Yabancı Sermaye Akımlarının Yurtiçi Tasarruf ve Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerine Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği”, A.Ü. SBF Dergisi, Vol. 63, No. 2, pp. 199–207.
  • Perron, P. (1989). “The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock and the Unit Root Hypothesis”, Econometrica, Vol. 57, pp. 1361–1401.
  • Pesaran, H.M., Pesaran B. (1997). Working with Microfit 4.0, Interactive Econometric Analysis, Oxford: Oxford University Press.
  • Pesaran, H.M., Shin Y., Smith R.J. (2001). “Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol. 16, No. 3, pp. 289–326, doi: 10.1002/jae.616.
  • Pesaran, H.M., Shin, Y. (1995). “Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis”, DAE Working Paper Series No.9514, Cambridge: Department of Applied Economics, University of Cambridge.
  • Pesaran, H.M., Shin, Y. (1999). “Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis”, Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • Phillips, P.C.B., Perron P. (1988). “Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression”, Biometrika, Vol. 75, pp. 335–346.
  • Siddique, A., Selvanathan E.A., Selvanathan S. (2015). “The Impact Of External Debt On Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence From Highly Indebted Poor Countries”, The University of Western Australia, Economics, No 15-10, Economics Discussion / Working Papers, (Available at: https://econpapers.repec.org/paper/uwawpaper/15-10.htm, Accessed: 3 October 2017)
  • Vergil, H., Karaca, C. (2010). “Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelere Yönelik Uluslararası Sermaye Hareketlerinin Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi: Panel Veri Analizi”, Ege Akademik Bakış, Vol. 10, No. 4, pp. 1207–1216, doi: 10.21121/eab.2010419606.
  • Yalçın, E. (2005). “İktisadi Büyüme ve Dış Krediler: Ampirik Bir Çalısma”. Research Notes in Economics (in Turkish), Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  • Zaman, R., Arslan, M. (2014). “The Role of External Debt on Economic Growth: Evidence From Pakistan Economy”, Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, Vol. 5, No. 24, pp. 140–148.
  • Zivot, E., Andrews, D. (1992). “Further Evidence of Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock and Unit Root Hypothesis”, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Vol. 10, pp. 251–270.
There are 40 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Junus Ganiev 0000-0001-8859-5464

Damira Baigonushova This is me 0000-0002-9740-0021

Nurbek Madmarov This is me 0000-0002-2329-5433

Raziiakhan Abdieva 0000-0002-9438-1558

Publication Date January 27, 2020
Submission Date June 25, 2019
Published in Issue Year 2020 Volume: 9 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Ganiev, J., Baigonushova, D., Madmarov, N., Abdieva, R. (2020). External Debt and Economic Growth in Transition Countries: Case of Kyrgyzstan. MANAS Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 9(1), 60-75. https://doi.org/10.33206/mjss.581860
AMA Ganiev J, Baigonushova D, Madmarov N, Abdieva R. External Debt and Economic Growth in Transition Countries: Case of Kyrgyzstan. MJSS. January 2020;9(1):60-75. doi:10.33206/mjss.581860
Chicago Ganiev, Junus, Damira Baigonushova, Nurbek Madmarov, and Raziiakhan Abdieva. “External Debt and Economic Growth in Transition Countries: Case of Kyrgyzstan”. MANAS Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi 9, no. 1 (January 2020): 60-75. https://doi.org/10.33206/mjss.581860.
EndNote Ganiev J, Baigonushova D, Madmarov N, Abdieva R (January 1, 2020) External Debt and Economic Growth in Transition Countries: Case of Kyrgyzstan. MANAS Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi 9 1 60–75.
IEEE J. Ganiev, D. Baigonushova, N. Madmarov, and R. Abdieva, “External Debt and Economic Growth in Transition Countries: Case of Kyrgyzstan”, MJSS, vol. 9, no. 1, pp. 60–75, 2020, doi: 10.33206/mjss.581860.
ISNAD Ganiev, Junus et al. “External Debt and Economic Growth in Transition Countries: Case of Kyrgyzstan”. MANAS Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi 9/1 (January 2020), 60-75. https://doi.org/10.33206/mjss.581860.
JAMA Ganiev J, Baigonushova D, Madmarov N, Abdieva R. External Debt and Economic Growth in Transition Countries: Case of Kyrgyzstan. MJSS. 2020;9:60–75.
MLA Ganiev, Junus et al. “External Debt and Economic Growth in Transition Countries: Case of Kyrgyzstan”. MANAS Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, vol. 9, no. 1, 2020, pp. 60-75, doi:10.33206/mjss.581860.
Vancouver Ganiev J, Baigonushova D, Madmarov N, Abdieva R. External Debt and Economic Growth in Transition Countries: Case of Kyrgyzstan. MJSS. 2020;9(1):60-75.

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