Real Exchange Rate Undervaluation and Economic Growth Relationship: An Analysis by Country Income Groups

Year 2022, Volume: 11 Issue: 4, 1418 - 1429, 26.10.2022

Ahmet İncekara , Abdullah Şuhan Gürbüz , Gülden Poyraz

https://doi.org/10.33206/mjss.1021979

Cited By: 1

Abstract

Despite a vast amount of literature on the relationship between the undervaluation of the real exchange rate and economic growth, a definite consensus has not been reached yet due to some differences in approaches. However, with all these differences in approaches, it is suggested in the relevant literature that a more competitive currency in developing economies has a positive effect on economic growth. In this study, the effect of undervaluation of real exchange rate on economic growth was examined separately for high income, upper middle income and lower middle income countries in the period of 1980-2019 for 81 countries. According to the results obtained from the study in which the dynamic panel data analysis method was used, the undervaluation and economic growth relationship was found to be statistically and economically significant only for the upper middle income country group. According to the results of the analysis a %10 loss of value in the domestic currency in upper middle income countries increases the economic growth by 0,0049 percentage points.

Keywords

Real Exchange Rate Undervaluation, Economic Growth, Panel Data

Reel Döviz Kurunda Eksik Değerlenme Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Ülke Gelir Gruplarına Göre Bir Analiz

Abstract

Reel döviz kurunda eksik değerlenme ile ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi literatürde önemli bir yer tutmasına rağmen, birtakım yaklaşım farklılıkları sebebiyle konu hakkında henüz kesin bir fikir birliği sağlanmış değildir. Ancak tüm bu yaklaşım farklılıkları ile birlikte ilgili literatürde, gelişmekte olan ekonomilerde daha rekabetçi para biriminin ekonomik büyüme üzerinde pozitif etkisinin olduğu öne sürülmektedir. Bu çalışmada reel döviz kurunda eksik değerlenmenin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi 1980-2019 döneminde yüksek gelirli, üst orta gelirli ve alt orta gelirli ülkeler için ayrı ayrı incelenmiştir. Çalışmanın örneklemi 81 ülkeden oluşmaktadır. Dinamik panel veri analiz yönteminin kullanıldığı çalışmadan elde edilen sonuçlara göre eksik değerlenme ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi sadece üst orta gelirli ülke grubu için istatistiksel ve iktisadi olarak anlamlı bulunmuştur. Analiz sonuçlarına göre üst orta gelirli ülkelerde yerli para biriminde meydana gelen %10’luk bir değer kaybı ekonomik büyümeyi %0,0049 arttırmaktadır.

Keywords

Reel Döviz Kuru Eksik Değerlenmesi, Ekonomik Büyüme, Panel Veri

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