The Impact of NATO Enlargement on Russian Security in the Baltic and Arctic

Year 2023, Volume: 12 Issue: 4, 1564 - 1578, 11.10.2023

Ferdi Güçyetmez

https://doi.org/10.33206/mjss.1267796

Abstract

After the discovery of energy and new transit routes, the Arctic has become the new competition area of global powers. The Arctic, which has a geopolitically important position, is the new struggle area of NATO and Russia. When we examine the region we see the members of the Arctic Council are Canada, America, Norway, Denmark, Iceland, Finland, Sweden and Russia. All of these countries are NATO members except Russia and Sweden. After Russia's attack on Ukraine, Finland and Sweden applied for NATO membership and Finland was accepted. On the other hand, with the Baltic states also becoming NATO members, Russia is surrounded both in Eastern Europe and in the Arctic region. Therefore, the study seeks to answer three main research questions: first, how is NATO's enlargement process in the Arctic region progressing? Second, what is Russia's doctrine (policies) against NATO enlargement? Third, what will be the impact of NATO enlargement on Russia's security?

Keywords

Arctic, NATO, Russia, Arctic Council, Hegemony

Baltık ve Arktika’da NATO Genişlemesinin Rusya Güvenliğine Etkisi

Abstract

Arktika, enerji ve yeni geçiş yollarının keşfedilmesi sonrasında küresel güçlerin yeni rekabet alanı olmuştur. Jeopolitik olarak önemli bir konuma sahip olan Arktika, NATO ve Rusya’nın yeni mücadele alanıdır. Bölgeyi incelediğimizde, Arktika Konseyi üyeleri Kanada, Amerika, Norveç, Danimarka, İzlanda, Finlandiya, İsveç ve Rusya’dır. Bu ülkelerden Rusya ve İsveç haricinde hepsi NATO üyesidir. Rusya’nın Ukrayna’ya saldırmasının ardından Finlandiya ve İsveç NATO üyesi olmak için başvuru yapmışlardır ve Finlandiya NATO üyeliğine kabul edilmiştir. Diğer yandan Baltık ülkelerinin de NATO üyesi olması ile Rusya hem Doğu Avrupa hem de Arktika bölgesinde çevrelenmiş durumdadır. Bu nedenle, çalışma kapsamında üç temel araştırma sorusuna cevap aranmaktadır: birincisi, NATO’nun Arktika bölgesindeki genişleme süreci nasıl ilerlemektedir? İkincisi, NATO genişlemesine karşı Rusya’nın doktrini (politikaları) nedir? Üçüncüsü, NATO genişlemesinin Rusya’nın güvenliğine etkisi nasıl olacaktır?

Keywords

Arktika, NATO, Rusya, Arktik Konseyi, Hegemonya

References

• Annika N. E., (2018). The United States and The Making of An Arctic Nation, Cambridge University Press.
• Arctıc Council, Arctic Climate Change Update. (2021). Accessed on 30.04.2022, https://oaarchive.arcticcouncil.org/bitstream/handle/11374/2621/MMIS12_2021_REYKJAVIK_AMAP_Arctic- Climate-Change-Update-2021-Key-Trends-and-Impacts.-Summary-for-Policy-makers.pdf? sequence=1&isAllowed=y.
• Arctic Portal, (2010). Foundations of the Russian federation’s state policy in the arctic until 2020 and beyond, Accessed on 25.09.2022, https://icr.arcticportal.org/index.php? option=com_content&view=article&id=1791%3.
• Business Insider, Russia militarization of the Arctic, Accessed on 22.09.2022, http://static1.businessinsider.com/image/55c50ab3371d22c6178bca77-1200-1062/ bi_graphics_russia’s%20militarization%20of%20the%20arctic_05.png.
• Caymaz, E., Büyüksağnak, Y. B. and Özsoy, B. (2021). National Polar Research as a Manifestation of Turkey’s Soft Power. Bilig, (99), 27-53. DOI: 10.12995/bilig.9902.
• Ekaterina P., (2010). Russia in the Arctic: What’s Lurking Behind the Flag? International Journal, 65(4), 851-864.
• Gang C., (2012). China’s Emerging Arctic Strategy. The Polar Journal, 2(2), 358-371.
• Gao T., (2020). China-Russia collaboration in arctic shipping and maritime engineering. The Polar Journal, 10(2), 353-374.
• Güçyetmez, F. (2021). Arktik’te Büyük Meydan Okuma: Çıkar Dengesi . Journal of Anadolu University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 22(1), 29-41. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/anadoluibfd/issue/61029/887039
• Güçyetmez, F. (2021). Yeni Hegemonya Alanı: Arktika. Journal of the Institute of Social Sciences of Ağrı Çeçen University, 7(1), 153-177. https://doi.org/10.31463/aicusbed.888275.
• Haftendorn H., (2001). NATO and the Arctic: is the Atlantic alliance a cold war relic in a peaceful region now faced with non-military challenges?. European Security, 20(3), 344.
• Haftendorn H., Wallander, C. and Keohane.R., (1999). Imperfect Unions: Security Institutions over Time and Space. Eds. by N.Y.: Oxford University Press.
• Kremlin, Regional Directions of National Marine Policy, Accessed on 03.04.2023 Decree of the President of the Russian Federation No. 31 of 07.2022.512 • President of Russia (kremlin.ru)
• Kuus M., (2004). Europe's Eastern Expansion and The Reinscription of Otherness in East-Central Europe. Sage Journal, 28(4), https://doi.org/10.1191/0309132504ph49.
• Lawson B. W., ve James T. G., (2022). Strategy for protecting the future Arctic Ocean. Oceanography 35(3), 167–177.
• Nong H., (2014). Emerging Interests of Non-Arctic Countries in The Arctic: A Chinese Perspective. The Polar Journal, 4(2), 271-286.
• Peng, J. and Njord W., (2015). China’s bilateral diplomacy in the Arctic. In Polar Geography, 38(3), 233-249.
• Pikok, L., Life in one of the fastest-warming places on Earth, Accessed on 04.05.2022, https://www.arctic- council.org/news/life-in-one-of-the-fastest-warming-places-on-earth/.
• Sharp T. L., (2011). The Implications of Ice Melt on Arctic Security. Defence Studies, 11(2), 314.
• Skripnuk, D. F., Iliyushchenko I. O., Kulik S. and Stepanova, M. M., (2020). Analysis of the Current State of the Northern Sea Route and the Potential Development of the Icebreaker Fleet. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science.
• Spufford, F., (1996). I May Be Some Time: Ice and the English Imagination. London: Faber and Faber.
• Statista, (2022). Defense expenditure as a share of gross domestic product (GDP) of Finland from 2011 to 2022. Accessed on 23.09.2022https://www.statista.com/statistics/530097/defence-budget-relative-to-gdp- finland/.
• Statista, (2022). Military expenditure as a percentage of the gross domestic product (GDP) in Sweden from 2011 to 2021. Accessed on 23.09.2022, https://www.statista.com/statistics/695409/military-spending-as-a- share-of-gdp-in-sweden/,
• Statista, (2022). Military expenditure as percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) in highest spending countries 2021. Accessed on 25.09.2022, https://www.statista.com/statistics/266892/military-expenditure- as-percentage-of-gdp-in-highest-spending-countries/
• The Arctic Institute, (1996). Russia. Accessed on 28.09.2022, https://www.thearcticinstitute.org/countries/russia/.
• The Mainichi, (2022). Finland, Sweden offer NATO an edge as rivalry warms up north. Accessed on 04.09.2022, https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20220821/p2g/00m/0in/033000c
• The U.S. Geological Survey, (2008). Circum-arctic resource appraisal: estimates of undiscovered oil and gas north of the arctic circle. Accessed on 02.06.2022, https://www.usgs.gov/media/audio/90-billion-barrels-oil- and-1670-trillion-cubic-feet-natural-gas-assessed-arctic.
• Titley, D. W. and Courtney C., (2010). Arctic Security Considerations and the U.S. Navy’s Roadmap for the Arctic. Naval War College Review, 63(2), 35–48.
• Toker S., (2014). United states and Russia in the Arctic energy future: rivalry or harmony?, (Master Thesis). İzmir Economy University, Graduate School of Social Sciences, İzmir Economy Unıversity.
• USGS, (2010). Assessment of Undiscovered Oil and Gas Resources of the West Siberian Basin Province, Russia. Accessed on 28.09.2022, https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2011/3050/pdf/fs2011-3050.pdf ,
• Vsevolod G., (2008). On Thin Ice: Water Rights and Resource Disputes in the Arctic Ocean. Journal of International Affairs, 61(2), 261-271.
• Wade, E. K. and Balakrishnan S., (2022). Defence spending pledges by NATO members since Russia invaded Ukraine, Accessed on 29.09.2022, https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/defence-spending-pledges-by- nato-members-since-russia-invaded-ukraine/