Türkiye’de Kaynaklara göre Enerji Tüketimi ve Ekonomik Küreselleşme Yeşil Büyümeyi Destekliyor Mu? Son 50 Yıldan Ampirik Bulgular

Year 2023, Volume: 12 Issue: Özel Sayı - Special Issue for the 100th Anniversary of the Republic of Türkiye, 157 - 170, 25.10.2023

Kumru Türköz

https://doi.org/10.33206/mjss.1321724

Abstract

Son yıllarda ‘’yeşil büyüme’’ kavramı uluslararası alanda pek çok ülke tarafından açık bir politika hedefi olarak benimsenmektedir. Bu nedenle mevcut literatür yeşil büyümenin dinamiklerini tespit etmek amacıyla hızla genişlemektedir. Buradan hareket ederek bu çalışmada, 1970-2020 döneminde Türkiye’de fosil yakıt tüketimi, yenilenebilir enerji tüketimi ve ekonomik küreselleşmenin ülkenin yeşil büyümesi üzerindeki asimetrik etkileri doğrusal olmayan otoregresif dağıtılmış gecikme (Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag-NARDL) yaklaşımı ile analiz edilmektedir. Ampirik bulgular; değişkenler arasında doğrusal olmayan bir eşbütünleşme ilişkinin varlığını doğrulamaktadır. Buna göre; uzun dönemde fosil enerji tüketimindeki pozitif şoklar yeşil büyümeyi baskılayıcı bir etki yaratırken, yenilenebilir enerji tüketimi pozitif ve negatif şoklardaki asimetrik etkilerle yeşil büyümeyi teşvik etmektedir. Ekonomik küreselleşme ise uzun dönemde yeşil büyüme üzerinde anlamlı bir etki yaratmamaktadır. Kısa dönemde ise, fosil enerji tüketimindeki ve ekonomik küreselleşmedeki negatif şoklar yeşil büyüme üzerinde olumsuz bir etki yaratmaktadır. Bu bulgular, Türkiye’de yeşil büyümeye dönüşüm için enerji bileşiminin fosil yakıtlardan yenilenebilir enerjiye doğru kaydırılmasının önemini açıkça ortaya koymaktadır.

Keywords

Enerji Tüketimi, Ekonomik Küreselleşme, Yeşil Büyüme, Asimetrik Analiz, NARDL

Do Energy Consumption by Source and Economic Globalization Support Green Growth in Turkey? Empirical Findings from the Last 50 Years

Abstract

In recent years, the concept of ‘’green growth’’ has been adopted as a clear policy target by many countries in the international area. Therefore, the current literature is expanding rapidly to identify the dynamics of green growth. From this point of view, in this study, the asymmetric effects of fossil fuel consumption, renewable energy consumption and economic globalization on the green growth are analyzed with the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) approach in the period 1970-2020 in Turkey. Empirical findings confirm the existence of a nonlinear cointegration relationship between the variables. According to this; in the long run, while positive shocks in fossil energy consumption create a suppressive effect on green growth, renewable energy consumption encourages green growth with asymmetric effects in positive and negative shocks. Economic globalization, on the other hand, does not have a significant effect on green growth in the long run. In the short run, negative shocks in both fossil energy consumption and economic globalization have a distorting effect on green growth. These findings clearly demonstrate the importance of shifting the energy mix from fossil fuels to renewable energy for the transition to green growth in Turkey.

Keywords

Energy Consumption, Economic Globalization, Green Growth, Asymmetric Analysis, NARDL

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