Mapping spatio-temporal tendencies of climate types in Geographic Information Systems (GIS) media: A case study in Şanlıurfa and its environs

Year 2019, Special Issue: 1st Int. Congress on Biosystems Engineering 2019, 232 - 240, 27.12.2019

Ali Demir Keskiner , Mahmut Çetin , Takanori Nagano

Abstract

Aims: The primary objective of this study was to figure out
spatio-temporal tendencies of climate-types in Şanlıurfa town and its environs,
located in the Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP) area, through using Erinç Drought Index method.

Methods and Results: Data sets consisting of long-term (1965-2018) annual total
precipitation as well as average annual maximum temperature series of
Şanlıurfa, Birecik, Akçakale, Ceylanpınarı, Siverek and Bozova meteorological
stations -distributed unevenly over total surface area of 19 242 km²- were
obtained and utilized in order to calculate Erinç Drought Index (EDI) on a yearly basis. EDI time series of each station was divided into three
non-overlapping and successive parts or periods, i.e. period-1 (1965-1981), period-2 (1982-1999), period-3
(2000-2018). The best fitting probability distribution models to the EDI series of each period were, in turn,
determined by performing a regular frequency analysis procedure by Kolmogorov-Smirnov Goodness of Fit Test
at the 5% significance level. EDI
having 50% probability was estimated for the three periods of each station by
utilizing probability models determined exclusively for each predetermined
period. Afterwards, regular grids with the size of 100 m by 100 m were established over the study area in GIS media. Ordinary-Kriging interpolation technique was employed
to estimate index values at the grid points and to generate climate maps over
the study area for the three successive periods.

Conclusions: Based on the spatio-temporal tendencies
map of climate types for 3 time periods, it was concluded that the
spatio-temporal climatic characteristics of Şanlurfa province is dominated as “Arid”, “Semi-arid” and “Sub-humid“
climate type from south to north, respectively, and areas of severe drought exposure
expands northward along to Siverek in all three periods.

Significance
and Impact of the Study: Although Atatürk, Birecik, and Karkamış Dams tackle to
mitigate drought expansion in the northwest, it is unlikely that it would not prevent
the spread of the future drought drifts because of global warming. It is strongly recommended that
spatio-temporal climate change studies should be periodically
conducted in tandem with forest management practices for the whole GAP
area.

Keywords

Erinç drought index, drought tendency map, climate-type, GAP, GIS

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