Economic resilience in the face of pandemic: a holistic mathematical analysis of the pandemic in India

Year 2025, Volume: 5 Issue: 1, 234 - 256, 31.03.2025

Amit Thakuria , Anshuman Mridul Sharma , Nainvi Chothwani Arkaprovo Chakraborty , Pundikala Veeresha

https://doi.org/10.53391/mmnsa.1540240

Abstract

COVID-19 was initiated in 2020 and caused an immediate threat to global countries in terms of both economic and health influences. In this present work, we extend the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model by considering two new variables, gross domestic product or GDP ($G$) and unemployment ($U$), to study the impact of this epidemic on the Indian economy during the $2020–2023$ period. Since our extended SIR model includes two novel compartments, which are GDP and unemployment rate, we can now explore in more detail the sophisticated relationship between health and economic matters. The framework allows us to investigate the following consequences: how changes in the infection rate affect the economy and how changes in GDP and unemployment translate into the spread of this contagion. These visualizations are based on real-time quarterly data and provide full knowledge of the interaction between health and economic dynamics during the COVID-19 crisis in India. Government initiatives and regulations are also reviewed for their efficiency to contain the virus while taming the economic cost. Real-world results are contrasted with the care to find the strengths and weaknesses of the policies that come out with the underlying assumptions in the model. This paper, in other words, deploys an in-depth analysis of the convoluted links between economics, policy, and public health in the face of a pandemic with a geographic focus in India.

Keywords

GDP , COVID-19 , unemployment , epidemic model , stability analysis

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