SEÇİMLERİN, DEMOKRATİKLEŞME SÜRECİNE ETKİLERİ: SEÇİM İTTİFAKLARI VE TÜRKİYE ÜZERİNE BİR TARTIŞMA

Year 2019, Issue: 31, 1 - 36, 01.06.2019

Mustafa Cem Oğuz

Abstract

Seçimli otoriter rejimlerin, seçimlerle demokratikleşip, demokratikleşmeyeceği yakın dönemin popüler konularından biridir. Literatürde seçimli otoriter rejimlerden, rekabetçi otoriter olarak anılanlarının, seçimlerle demokratikleşme imkanının bulunduğu teslim edilmiştir. Son dönemde yapılan çalışmalarda ise seçimlerin hangi şartlarda başarı getirdiği tartışılmış ve muhalefetin “seçim ittifakına” gittiği seçimlerde iktidarın el değiştirdiği veyahut “özgürleş-tirici seçim sonuçları” elde edildiği görülmüştür. Türkiye’de de 2014 yılından itibaren muhalefet “seçim ittifakına” gitmeye başlamıştır. Başarısız olan iki denemeden sonra 31 Mart Yerel Seçimlerinde muhalefet ittifakı önemli kazanımlar elde etmiştir. Bu çalışma muhalefet ittifakının elde ettiği kazanımların yakın vadede “özgürleştirici seçim sonuçları” sunacağını iddia edecek ve bu sonuçlara dair projeksiyonlarda bulunacaktır. Çalışmanın bu iddiası aynı zamanda literatürdeki “seçim ittifakları otoriter rejimlerden çıkışta en etkili demokratik yöntemdir” bulgusunun Türkiye örneğinde de doğrulandığını göstermektedir.

Keywords

Rekabetçi Otoriter Seçimler, Seçim İttifakları, Demokratikleşme, Seçimler, 2019 Türkiye Yerel Seçimleri

THE IMPACT OF ELECTIONS ON DEMOCRATIZATION: ELECTORAL ALLIANCES AND A DEBATE ON TURKEY

Abstract

It is one of the most popular topics of the recent period whether the electoral authoritarian regimes will be or not will be democratized by elections. In the literature, it has been submitted that there is a possibility of democratization by elections for the competitive authoritarian regimes which is a subtype of electoral authoritarian regimes. In recent studies, the conditions under which the elections succeeded were discussed and it is observed that turnover of regimes and “liberalized electoral outcome”are obtained in the elections that the oppositions prefer to form “electoral alliances”. Since 2014, the opposition of Turkey had been forming electoral alliances. After the two failed experiment, at 31 march local elections electoral alliance of opposition obtained a successful result. This study argues that the gains of the opposition alliance will bring “liberalized electoral outcome” in the near term, so there will be projections about these possible results at the end of the study. Besides this, the hypothesis of literature, “electoral alliances are the most effective methods at departure from the authoritarian regime”, will be also confirmed in Turkey experience by this paper.

Keywords

Competitive Authoritarian Regimes, Electoral Alliances, Democratizations, Elections, 2019 Turkish Local Elections

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