Research Article
BibTex RIS Cite

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SELECTED MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES AND AIRLINE STOCK CERTIFICATES: HATEMI-J ASYMMETRIC CAUSALITY TEST

Year 2021, Volume: 2 Issue: 1, 61 - 78, 30.04.2021

Abstract

The main objective of this study is to empirically analyze the causality relationship between gold prices, exchange rates and oil prices and airline stocks. Daily data between April 26, 2013 and February 03, 2021 were used in the study. Within the framework of the study, Hatemi-J, Causality analysis was employed. Empirical analysis results indicate the existence of a significant causality relationship from selected macroeconomic variables to stock prices and from stock prices to selected macroeconomic variables.

References

  • Abdulrazzaq Y. (2018). An Analysis of the E An Analysis of the Effects of P ects of Political E olitical Events on Oil Price V ents on Oil Price Volatility olatility and Consequential Spillo and Consequential Spillover Effects on Selected GCC St ects on Selected GCC Stock Markets: An Emphasis on the Case of Kuwait. Technological University Dublin A dissertation submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Finance Doktoral.
  • Aksoylu E. ve Görmüş Ş. (2018). Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Ülke Riski Göstergesi Olarak Kredi Temerrüt Swapları: Asimetrik Nedensellik Yöntemi. Ekonomik ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, Cilt 14, Yıl 14, Sayı 1, 2018, s.15-33.
  • Arfaoui M. (2017). Oil, Gold, US Dollar and Stock Market Interdependencies: A Global Analytical Insight. European Journal of Management and Business Economics Sayı 26, 3, 2017 s. 278-293.
  • Bektur Ç. ve Malcıoğlu G. (2017). Kredi Temerrüt Takasları ile Bist 100 Endeksi Arasındaki İlişki: Asimetrik Nedensellik Analizi. AİBÜ Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 2017, Cilt:17, Yıl:17, Sayı: 3, 17: s.73-83.
  • Belhadi, A., Kamble, S., Jabbour, C. J. C., Gunasekaran, A., Ndubisi, N. O., & Venkatesh, M. (2021). Manufacturing and service supply chain resilience to the COVID-19 outbreak: Lessons learned from the automobile and airline industries. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120447
  • Bjelicic, B. (2012). Financing airlines in the wake of the financial markets crisis. Journal of Air Transport Management, 21, 10–16. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2011.12.012
  • Button, K., Brugnoli, A., Martini, G., & Scotti, D. (2015). Connecting African urban areas: Airline networks and intra-Sub-Saharan trade. Journal of Transport Geography, 42, 84–89. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2014.11.007
  • Chesney, M., Reshetar, G., & Karaman, M. (2011). The impact of terrorism on financial markets: An empirical study. Journal of Banking and Finance, 35(2), 253–267. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2010.07.026
  • Chi, J., & Baek, J. (2013). Dynamic relationship between air transport demand and economic growth in the United States: A new look. Transport Policy, 29, 257–260. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2013.03.005
  • Çevik Z. ve Zeren F. (2014). Tarım Kredilerinin Finansal Gelişim Üzerindeki Etkisinin Asimetrik Nedensellik Tesri ile İncelenmesi. Yönetim ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi – Sayı:24, 2014, s.197-208.
  • Gittell, J. H., Cameron, K., Lim, S., & Rivas, V. (2006). Relationships, Layoffs, and organizational resilience: Airline industry responses to september 11. Journal of Applied Behavioral Science, 42(3), 300–329. https://doi.org/10.1177/0021886306286466
  • Hatemi-J, A. (2012). Asymmetric Causality Tests With An Application. Empirical Economics, 43, 1, s.447 – 456.
  • Hätty, H., & Hollmeier, S. (2003). Airline strategy in the 2001/2002 crisis — The Lufthansa example. Journal of Air Transport Management, 9(1), 51–55. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0969-6997(02)00064-9
  • https://www.flypgs.com/pegasus-hakkinda/neden-pegasus Erişim Tarihi: 12 Şubat 2021. https://www.turkishairlines.com/tr-int/basin-odasi/hakkimizda/hikayemiz/ Erişim Tarihi: 12 Şubat 2021.
  • Ito, H., & Lee, D. (2005). Assessing the impact of the September 11 terrorist attacks on U.S. airline demand. Journal of Economics and Business, 57(1), 75–95. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconbus.2004.06.003
  • Kathiravan C. vd. (2019). Relationship between Crude Oil Price Changes and Airlines Stock Price: The Case of Indian Aviation Industry. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 2019, 9(5), s.7-13.
  • Kiracı K. (2020). Bist Ulaştırma Endeksi ile Dolar Endeksi ve Petrol Fiyatları Arasındaki İlişkinin Ampirik Olarak Analizi. Finansal Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi, Cilt: 12, Sayı: 22, s. 180-189.
  • Kiracı, K., & Bakır, M. (2019). Causal Relationship Between Air Transport and Economic Growth: Evidence from Panel Data for High, Upper-Middle, Lower-Middle and Low-Income Countries. Khazar Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences, 22, 24–43. https://doi.org/10.5782/2223-2621.2019.22.3.24
  • Kristjanpoller, W. D., & Concha, D. (2016). Impact of fuel price fluctuations on airline stock returns. Applied Energy, 178, 496–504. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.06.089 Maneenop, S., & Kotcharin, S. (2020). The impacts of COVID-19 on the global airline industry: An event study approach. Journal of Air Transport Management, 89. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2020.101920
  • Miranda U. (2015). The Relationship Between Terrorism, Oil Prices, and Airline Profitability. Walden University College of Management and Technology This is to certify that the doctoral study by.
  • Pata U.K. (2018). Türkiye’de Enflasyon, Tasarruf ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkilerin Simetrik ve Asimetrik Nedensellik Testleri ile Analizi. Maliye Dergisi, Ocak-Haziran 2018, s.174: 92-111.
  • Pearce, B. (2012). The state of air transport markets and the airline industry after the great recession. Journal of Air Transport Management, 21, 3–9. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2011.12.011
  • Saleh M.S.A.H. (2012). The Relationship Between Oil Price And Airline Stock Price. Universiti Utara Malaysia in Fulfillment of the Requirements for the degree, A Research Project Submitted to Othman Yeop Abdullah Graduate School of Business College of Business, Master of Science (Finance).
  • Shaeri K. ve Katırcıoğlu S. (2018). The nexus between oil prices and stock prices of oil, technology and transportation companies under multiple regime shifts. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 2018, 31, 1, s.681–702.
  • Sobieralski, J. B. (2020). COVID-19 and airline employment: Insights from historical uncertainty shocks to the industry. Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives, 5, 100123. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trip.2020.100123
  • Sungur O., Aydın H.B. ve Eren M.V. (2016). Türkiye’de AR-GE, İnovasyon, İhracat ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: Asimetrik Nedensellik Analizi. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi Y.2016, C.21, S.1, s.173-192.
  • Taşar İ. (2017). Asymmetric Relationship Between Oil Price And Exchange Rate: The Case Of Romania. Fırat Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi The Journal of International Social Sciences Cilt: 28, Sayı 1, s. 143-154.
  • Toda, Hiro Y. ve Yamamoto, Taku (1995). Statistical Inference in Vector Autoregressions With Possibly Integrated Processes. Journal of Econometrics, 66, 225-250.
  • Yaraşır Tülümce S. ve Zeren F. (2017). Türkiye’de Kamu Harcamaları ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin Asimetrik Nedensellik Testi ile Analizi. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, Cilt 13, Sayı 2, 2017, s. 299-310.
  • Yetim M. ve Yamak R. (2019). Türkiye’de Döviz Kurundan Fiyatlara Geçişkenlik Etkisi: Hatemi-J Asimetrik Nedensellik Testi. Trakya Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi Haziran 2019 Cilt 21, Sayı 1, s.203-221.
  • Yılancı V. ve Bozoklu Ş. (2014). Türk Sermaye Piyasasında Fiyat ve İşlem Hacmi İlişkisi: Zamanla Değişen Asimetrik Nedensellik Analizi. Ege Akademik Bakış, 14 (2), s.211 – 220.

Seçilmiş Makroekonomik Değişkenler İle Havayolu Hisse Senetleri Arasındaki İlişki: Hatemi-J Asimetrik Nedensellik Testi

Year 2021, Volume: 2 Issue: 1, 61 - 78, 30.04.2021

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın temel amacı altın fiyatları, döviz kuru ve petrol fiyatları ile havayolu hisse senetleri arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisinin ampirik olarak incelenmesidir. Çalışmada 26 Nisan 2013 ile 03 Şubat 2021 dönemi arasındaki günlük veriler kullanılmıştır. Çalışma kapsamında Hatemi-J, Nedensellik analizi kullanılmıştır. Ampirik analiz sonuçları, seçilmiş makroekonomik değişkenlerden hisse senetleri fiyatlarına doğru ve hisse senetleri fiyatlarından seçilmiş makroekonomik değişkenlere doğru anlamlı nedensellik ilişkisinin varlığını göstermektedir.

References

  • Abdulrazzaq Y. (2018). An Analysis of the E An Analysis of the Effects of P ects of Political E olitical Events on Oil Price V ents on Oil Price Volatility olatility and Consequential Spillo and Consequential Spillover Effects on Selected GCC St ects on Selected GCC Stock Markets: An Emphasis on the Case of Kuwait. Technological University Dublin A dissertation submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Finance Doktoral.
  • Aksoylu E. ve Görmüş Ş. (2018). Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Ülke Riski Göstergesi Olarak Kredi Temerrüt Swapları: Asimetrik Nedensellik Yöntemi. Ekonomik ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, Cilt 14, Yıl 14, Sayı 1, 2018, s.15-33.
  • Arfaoui M. (2017). Oil, Gold, US Dollar and Stock Market Interdependencies: A Global Analytical Insight. European Journal of Management and Business Economics Sayı 26, 3, 2017 s. 278-293.
  • Bektur Ç. ve Malcıoğlu G. (2017). Kredi Temerrüt Takasları ile Bist 100 Endeksi Arasındaki İlişki: Asimetrik Nedensellik Analizi. AİBÜ Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 2017, Cilt:17, Yıl:17, Sayı: 3, 17: s.73-83.
  • Belhadi, A., Kamble, S., Jabbour, C. J. C., Gunasekaran, A., Ndubisi, N. O., & Venkatesh, M. (2021). Manufacturing and service supply chain resilience to the COVID-19 outbreak: Lessons learned from the automobile and airline industries. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120447
  • Bjelicic, B. (2012). Financing airlines in the wake of the financial markets crisis. Journal of Air Transport Management, 21, 10–16. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2011.12.012
  • Button, K., Brugnoli, A., Martini, G., & Scotti, D. (2015). Connecting African urban areas: Airline networks and intra-Sub-Saharan trade. Journal of Transport Geography, 42, 84–89. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2014.11.007
  • Chesney, M., Reshetar, G., & Karaman, M. (2011). The impact of terrorism on financial markets: An empirical study. Journal of Banking and Finance, 35(2), 253–267. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2010.07.026
  • Chi, J., & Baek, J. (2013). Dynamic relationship between air transport demand and economic growth in the United States: A new look. Transport Policy, 29, 257–260. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2013.03.005
  • Çevik Z. ve Zeren F. (2014). Tarım Kredilerinin Finansal Gelişim Üzerindeki Etkisinin Asimetrik Nedensellik Tesri ile İncelenmesi. Yönetim ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi – Sayı:24, 2014, s.197-208.
  • Gittell, J. H., Cameron, K., Lim, S., & Rivas, V. (2006). Relationships, Layoffs, and organizational resilience: Airline industry responses to september 11. Journal of Applied Behavioral Science, 42(3), 300–329. https://doi.org/10.1177/0021886306286466
  • Hatemi-J, A. (2012). Asymmetric Causality Tests With An Application. Empirical Economics, 43, 1, s.447 – 456.
  • Hätty, H., & Hollmeier, S. (2003). Airline strategy in the 2001/2002 crisis — The Lufthansa example. Journal of Air Transport Management, 9(1), 51–55. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0969-6997(02)00064-9
  • https://www.flypgs.com/pegasus-hakkinda/neden-pegasus Erişim Tarihi: 12 Şubat 2021. https://www.turkishairlines.com/tr-int/basin-odasi/hakkimizda/hikayemiz/ Erişim Tarihi: 12 Şubat 2021.
  • Ito, H., & Lee, D. (2005). Assessing the impact of the September 11 terrorist attacks on U.S. airline demand. Journal of Economics and Business, 57(1), 75–95. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconbus.2004.06.003
  • Kathiravan C. vd. (2019). Relationship between Crude Oil Price Changes and Airlines Stock Price: The Case of Indian Aviation Industry. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 2019, 9(5), s.7-13.
  • Kiracı K. (2020). Bist Ulaştırma Endeksi ile Dolar Endeksi ve Petrol Fiyatları Arasındaki İlişkinin Ampirik Olarak Analizi. Finansal Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi, Cilt: 12, Sayı: 22, s. 180-189.
  • Kiracı, K., & Bakır, M. (2019). Causal Relationship Between Air Transport and Economic Growth: Evidence from Panel Data for High, Upper-Middle, Lower-Middle and Low-Income Countries. Khazar Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences, 22, 24–43. https://doi.org/10.5782/2223-2621.2019.22.3.24
  • Kristjanpoller, W. D., & Concha, D. (2016). Impact of fuel price fluctuations on airline stock returns. Applied Energy, 178, 496–504. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.06.089 Maneenop, S., & Kotcharin, S. (2020). The impacts of COVID-19 on the global airline industry: An event study approach. Journal of Air Transport Management, 89. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2020.101920
  • Miranda U. (2015). The Relationship Between Terrorism, Oil Prices, and Airline Profitability. Walden University College of Management and Technology This is to certify that the doctoral study by.
  • Pata U.K. (2018). Türkiye’de Enflasyon, Tasarruf ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkilerin Simetrik ve Asimetrik Nedensellik Testleri ile Analizi. Maliye Dergisi, Ocak-Haziran 2018, s.174: 92-111.
  • Pearce, B. (2012). The state of air transport markets and the airline industry after the great recession. Journal of Air Transport Management, 21, 3–9. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2011.12.011
  • Saleh M.S.A.H. (2012). The Relationship Between Oil Price And Airline Stock Price. Universiti Utara Malaysia in Fulfillment of the Requirements for the degree, A Research Project Submitted to Othman Yeop Abdullah Graduate School of Business College of Business, Master of Science (Finance).
  • Shaeri K. ve Katırcıoğlu S. (2018). The nexus between oil prices and stock prices of oil, technology and transportation companies under multiple regime shifts. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 2018, 31, 1, s.681–702.
  • Sobieralski, J. B. (2020). COVID-19 and airline employment: Insights from historical uncertainty shocks to the industry. Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives, 5, 100123. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trip.2020.100123
  • Sungur O., Aydın H.B. ve Eren M.V. (2016). Türkiye’de AR-GE, İnovasyon, İhracat ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: Asimetrik Nedensellik Analizi. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi Y.2016, C.21, S.1, s.173-192.
  • Taşar İ. (2017). Asymmetric Relationship Between Oil Price And Exchange Rate: The Case Of Romania. Fırat Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi The Journal of International Social Sciences Cilt: 28, Sayı 1, s. 143-154.
  • Toda, Hiro Y. ve Yamamoto, Taku (1995). Statistical Inference in Vector Autoregressions With Possibly Integrated Processes. Journal of Econometrics, 66, 225-250.
  • Yaraşır Tülümce S. ve Zeren F. (2017). Türkiye’de Kamu Harcamaları ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin Asimetrik Nedensellik Testi ile Analizi. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, Cilt 13, Sayı 2, 2017, s. 299-310.
  • Yetim M. ve Yamak R. (2019). Türkiye’de Döviz Kurundan Fiyatlara Geçişkenlik Etkisi: Hatemi-J Asimetrik Nedensellik Testi. Trakya Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi Haziran 2019 Cilt 21, Sayı 1, s.203-221.
  • Yılancı V. ve Bozoklu Ş. (2014). Türk Sermaye Piyasasında Fiyat ve İşlem Hacmi İlişkisi: Zamanla Değişen Asimetrik Nedensellik Analizi. Ege Akademik Bakış, 14 (2), s.211 – 220.
There are 31 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Finance
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Ebru Kaya 0000-0001-6690-2996

Publication Date April 30, 2021
Acceptance Date March 14, 2021
Published in Issue Year 2021 Volume: 2 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Kaya, E. (2021). Seçilmiş Makroekonomik Değişkenler İle Havayolu Hisse Senetleri Arasındaki İlişki: Hatemi-J Asimetrik Nedensellik Testi. Malatya Turgut Özal Üniversitesi İşletme Ve Yönetim Bilimleri Dergisi, 2(1), 61-78.