İsrail-Filistin Savaşının Bölge Borsalarına Etkisi: Olay Çalışması Yöntemi ile Bir Analiz

Abstract

Bu çalışma, 7 Ekim 2023'te başlayan İsrail- Filistin çatışmasının Türkiye ve Ortadoğu'da bulunan Filistin, İsrail, Mısır, Katar, Lübnan, Birleşik Arap Emirlikleri, Ürdün, Kuveyt, Suudi Arabistan, Umman ve Bahreyn’in yer aldığı ülkelerin borsa endeksleri üzerindeki etkilerini incelemek amacıyla gerçekleştirilmiştir. Çalışmada, olay çalışması yöntemi kullanılarak, çatışmanın kısa vadeli etkileri anormal getiriler üzerinden analiz edilmiştir. Araştırmada, her bir ülkenin belirlenmiş borsa endekslerinin kapanış değerleri incelenmiş ve anormal getiriler (AR) ile kümülatif anormal getiriler (CAR) hesaplanmıştır. İncelenen çatışma öncesi ve sonrası toplam 21 günlük dönemin CAR tablosu; Kuveyt, Suudi Arabistan, Ürdün, Katar, Mısır ve Umman’ın olaylara pozitif tepki verdiği; Lübnan, Filistin, Bahreyn, İsrail, Birleşik Arap Emirlikleri ve Türkiye’nin de negatif tepkiler verdiği yapılan analizlerde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bulunmuştur.

Keywords

• İsrail – Filistin Çatışması
• Olay Çalışması Yöntemi
• Borsa Analizi

The Impact of the Israel-Palestine War on Regional Stock Markets: An Event Study Approach

Abstract

This study was conducted to examine the effects of the Israel - Palestinian conflict, which began on 7 October 2023, on the stock market indices of countries in Turkey and the Middle East, including Palestine, Israel, Egypt, Qatar, Lebanon, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Bahrain. Using the event study method, the short-term effects of the conflict were analysed through abnormal returns. The closing values of each country's designated stock market indices were examined, and abnormal returns (AR) and cumulative abnormal returns (CAR) were calculated. The CAR table for the total 21-day period before and after the conflict examined statistically found that Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Qatar, Egypt, and Oman reacted positively to the events, while Lebanon, Palestine, Bahrain, Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and Turkey reacted negatively.

Keywords

• Israel-Palestine Conflict
• Event Study Method
• Stock Market Analysis

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