İsrail-Filistin Savaşının Bölge Borsalarına Etkisi: Olay Çalışması Yöntemi ile Bir Analiz

Year 2025, Volume: 5 Issue: 2, 392 - 402, 31.12.2025

Zeynep Gülay Korkmaz , Emre Özsalman , Nuri Hacıevliyagil

Abstract

Bu çalışma, 7 Ekim 2023'te başlayan İsrail- Filistin çatışmasının Türkiye ve Ortadoğu'da bulunan Filistin, İsrail, Mısır, Katar, Lübnan, Birleşik Arap Emirlikleri, Ürdün, Kuveyt, Suudi Arabistan, Umman ve Bahreyn’in yer aldığı ülkelerin borsa endeksleri üzerindeki etkilerini incelemek amacıyla gerçekleştirilmiştir. Çalışmada, olay çalışması yöntemi kullanılarak, çatışmanın kısa vadeli etkileri anormal getiriler üzerinden analiz edilmiştir. Araştırmada, her bir ülkenin belirlenmiş borsa endekslerinin kapanış değerleri incelenmiş ve anormal getiriler (AR) ile kümülatif anormal getiriler (CAR) hesaplanmıştır. İncelenen çatışma öncesi ve sonrası toplam 21 günlük dönemin CAR tablosu; Kuveyt, Suudi Arabistan, Ürdün, Katar, Mısır ve Umman’ın olaylara pozitif tepki verdiği; Lübnan, Filistin, Bahreyn, İsrail, Birleşik Arap Emirlikleri ve Türkiye’nin de negatif tepkiler verdiği yapılan analizlerde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bulunmuştur.

Keywords

İsrail – Filistin Çatışması , Olay Çalışması Yöntemi , Borsa Analizi

The Impact of the Israel-Palestine War on Regional Stock Markets: An Event Study Approach

Abstract

This study was conducted to examine the effects of the Israel - Palestinian conflict, which began on 7 October 2023, on the stock market indices of countries in Turkey and the Middle East, including Palestine, Israel, Egypt, Qatar, Lebanon, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Bahrain. Using the event study method, the short-term effects of the conflict were analysed through abnormal returns. The closing values of each country's designated stock market indices were examined, and abnormal returns (AR) and cumulative abnormal returns (CAR) were calculated. The CAR table for the total 21-day period before and after the conflict examined statistically found that Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Qatar, Egypt, and Oman reacted positively to the events, while Lebanon, Palestine, Bahrain, Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and Turkey reacted negatively.

Keywords

Israel-Palestine Conflict , Event Study Method , Stock Market Analysis

References

• Aktümsek, E., Goker, I. E. K., & Eren, B. S. (2024). Rusya-Ukrayna Savaşının Hisse Senedi Getirileri Üzerindeki Etkisi: BIST Elektrik Endeksi Üzerine Bir Uygulama. Hitit Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, (ICAFR'23 Özel Sayısı), 159-171.
• Altemur, N., Eren, B. S., & Karaca, S. S. (2024). The impact of the Hamas-Israel conflict on stock market indices in the middle east and Turkey: an event study analysis. Journal of Economics and Business Issues, 4(1), 77-85.
• Armitage, S. (1995). Event study methods and evidence on their performance. Journal of economic surveys, 9(1), 25-52.
• Basdas, U., & Oran, A. (2014). Event studies in Turkey. Borsa Istanbul Review, 14(3), 167-188.
• Becker, G. S., Y. Rubinstein, et al. (2004). Fear and the response to terrorism: an economic analysis. University of Chicago, Department of Economics. Working Paper, 93.
• Bevilacqua, M., Morelli, D., & Uzan, P. S. R. (2020). Asymmetric implied market volatility and terrorist attacks. International Review of Financial Analysis, 67, 101417.
• Caldara, D., & Iacoviello, M. (2022). Measuring geopolitical risk. American Economic Review, 112(4), 1194-1225.
• Cameron, A. C., & Miller, D. L. (2015). A practitioner’s guide to cluster-robust inference. Journal of human resources, 50(2), 317-372.
• Demirel, S. (2024). İsrail-Hamas savaşının Orta Doğu borsalarına etkisinin olay çalışması metodolojisi ile incelenmesi. Business & Management Studies: An International Journal, 12(1), 116-131.
• Drakos, K. (2010). Terrorism activity, investor sentiment, and stock returns. Review of Financial Economics 19 (3), 128–135.
• Dyckman, T., Philbrick, D., & Stephan, J. (1984). A comparison of event study methodologies using daily stock returns: A simulation approach. Journal of accounting research, 1-30.
• Ergün, Z. C. (2024). The Impact of International Conflicts on the Cryptocurrency Market: The Case of Israel–Palestine Conflict. Politik Ekonomik Kuram, 8(1), 67-76.
• Fama, E. F. (1970). Efficient capital markets. Journal of finance, 25(2), 383-417.
• Fama, E. F., Fisher, L., Jensen, M. C., & Roll, R. (1969). The adjustment of stock prices to new information. International economic review, 10(1), 1-21.
• Hasyim, F., & Sukardi, B. (2025). Impact of Israelli-Boycotts on Stock Volatility: A GARCH Analysis of Unilever and Indofood. Jurnal Penelitan Ekonomi Dan Bisnis, 10(2), 114. https://doi.org/10.33633/jpeb.v10i2.11362
• Hudson, R. ve Urquhart, A. (2015). Savaş ve borsa piyasaları: İkinci Dünya Savaşı'nın İngiliz borsa piyasası üzerindeki etkisi. Uluslararası Finansal Analiz Dergisi , 40 , 166-177.
• Ijaz, M. S., Ali, S., Du, A. M., & Khurram, M. (2025). Analyzing financial market reactions to the Palestine-Israel conflict: An event study perspective. International Review of Economics & Finance, 98, 103864.
• Jreisat, A., Al-Mohamad, S., Khaki, A. R., & Bakry, W. (2023). The Impact of Ukrainian Crisis on the Connectedness of Stock Index in Asian Economies. Emerging Science Journal, 7(2), 354. https://doi.org/10.28991/esj-2023-07-02-04
• Kolari, J. W., & Pynnönen, S. (2010). Event study testing with cross-sectional correlation of abnormal returns. The Review of financial studies, 23(11), 3996-4025.
• Kollias, C., Papadamou, S. ve Stagiannis, A. (2011). Terörizm ve sermaye piyasaları: Madrid ve Londra bombalı saldırılarının etkileri. Uluslararası Ekonomi ve Finans Dergisi , 20 (4), 532-541.
• Martins, A. M. (2024). How do commodity futures respond to Ukraine–Russia, Taiwan Strait and Hamas–Israel crises?–an analysis using event study approach. Studies in Economics and Finance.
• Mishkin, F. S., The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets, 13th Edition, published by Pearson Education © 2022.
• Özer, B., (2023). https://www.ntv.com.tr/galeri/dunya/filistin-israil-savasi-nasil-basladi-neler-yasandi-son-durum-ne,3844lXyFfkiDcZ2boo5ieA/ZgW3tBMOkkyxddbOd39jpw
• Özer, Ç. (2023). Uluslararası Politika Açısından Filistin Sorunu. Külliye, (Türkiye Cumhuriyeti'nin 100. yılı özel sayısı), 582-605.
• Papakyriakou, P., A. Sakkas, and Z. Taoushianis (2019). The impact of terrorist attacks in G7 countries on international stock markets and the role of investor sentiment. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money.
• Petersen, M. A. (2008). Estimating standard errors in finance panel data sets: Comparing approaches. The Review of financial studies, 22(1), 435-480.
• Peterson, P. P. (1989). Event studies: A review of issues and methodology. Quarterly journal of business and economics, 36-66.
• Taşdelen, S. (2023). BIST 100'ün Rusya'nın Ukrayna İşgaline Tepkisi: Ekonometrik Bir Analiz. Yönetim ve Ekonomi Dergisi, 30(3), 597-610.
• Verma, V. (2024). Savaşların ABD Savunma Hisse Senedi Getirileri Üzerindeki Etkisi.
• Wahyono, B., Boungou, W., Rapih, S., & Sangka, K. B. (2025). Nobody (even stock markets) likes war: Evidence from the Israel-Hamas war. Economics Bulletin, 45(1), 188-195.
• Yiğit, F., & Canöz, İ. (2020). The reaction of airline stocks in Europe to the covid-19 pandemic: An event study methodology. İstanbul Ticaret Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 19(39), 1309-1326.
• Yilmazkuday, H. (2024). Geopolitical risk and stock prices. European Journal of Political Economy, 83, 102553. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2024.102553
• Yousaf, I., Patel, R., & Yarovaya, L. (2022). The reaction of G20+ stock markets to the Russia–Ukraine conflict “black-swan” event: Evidence from event study approach. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 35, 100723.
• Yudaruddin, R., Lesmana, D., Ekşi, İ. H., & Ginn, W. (2024a). Market reactions to the Israel-Hamas conflict: a comparative event study of the US and Chinese markets. Borsa Istanbul Review, 24(6), 1345-1357.
• Yudaruddin, R., Lesmana, D., Yudaruddin, Y. A., Ekşi̇, İ. H., & Başar, B. D. (2024b). Impact of the Israel–Hamas conflict on financial markets of MENA region–a study on investors’ reaction. Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences.