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Gelişmekte Olan Bir Piyasa Olarak Türkiye'de Temettü Sinyalleşme Teorisinin Test Edilmesi: Borsa İstanbul'da Listelenen Firmalardan Ampirik Kanıtlar

Year 2021, , 59 - 92, 16.08.2021
https://doi.org/10.25095/mufad.934750

Abstract

Temettüler (kar payları) ve karlılık (finansal performans) halen tartışmasız bir şekilde finansal araştırmanın en göze çarpan özellikleri
arasındadır. Bu makale, genel olarak sinyalizasyon teorisinin işe yarayıp yaramadığını ve nasıl çalıştığını ampirik olarak araştırmakla ilgilenirken,
aynı zamanda temettülerin özellikle kurumsal finansal performansı ifade eden kurumsal karlılıktan ne ölçüde sorumlu olabileceğini incelemekle
ilgilenmektedir. Bu çalışmada dinamik panel regresyonları, gelişmekte olan bir pazar ekonomisi için on iki (12) farklı model üzerindeki tahminlerimizi
test etmek üzere, borsada kote edilen 45 şirket örnekleminde 2000'den 2018'e uzanan bir zaman penceresi ile gerçekleştirilmektedir. Finansal ve
finansal olmayan şirketler ayrı ayrı incelenmekte ve birlikte karşılaştırılmaktadır. Sonuçlar genellikle (mevcut) temettülerin gelecek donemdeki
kurumsal karlılığın habercisi olma noktasında ilgisiz olma eğiliminde olduğunu belgelemektedir. Mamafih; ampirik kanıtlar, finansal olmayan
şirketler için temettülerin, bağımlı değişkenin (karlılığın) Vergi Öncesi Kazanç / Ödenmiş Sermaye olarak ölçülebilen “Sermaye Getirisi” olması
durumunda gelecek donemdeki karlılığı açıkladığını göstermektedir. Özellikle, cari donemdeki temettü dağıtımı ile gelecek donemdeki karlılık
arasında pozitif seyreden ilişki bize kar payları ne kadar yüksek (düşük) ise karlılığın da o kadar yüksek (düşük) olması anlamına gelmektedir. Buna
ek olarak, bu çalışma, test edilen bütün modellerin büyük bir kısmı için, kurumsal karlılık veya kurumsal finansal performans olarak temsil edilen
(ölçülebilen) bağımlı değişkenin gecikmeli ve öncü değerleri arasında, finansal şirketler ve/veya finansal olmayan şirketler için, anlamlı bir ilişki
olduğunu göstermektedir

References

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  • Grullon, Gustavo - Michaely, Roni (2002), “ Dividends, Share Repurchases, And The Substitution Hypothesis ”, The Journal of Finance, Vol. 57, Issue 4, pp. 1649-1684.
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Testing Dividend Signaling Theory in Turkey as an Emerging Market: Empirical Evidence From Public Firms Listed in Borsa Istanbul

Year 2021, , 59 - 92, 16.08.2021
https://doi.org/10.25095/mufad.934750

Abstract

Dividends (profit share) and profitability (financial performance) still remain unarguably among the most salient attributes of financial
research. This paper is interested in empirically exploring if and how signalization theory works in general while being interested in also exploring to
what extent dividends may account for the corporate profitability being corporate financial performance in particular. Dynamic panel regressions are
performed to test our predictions on twelve (12) different models for an emerging market economy with a sampling time window spanning 2000
through 2018 for 45 listed companies. Financial firms (FFs) versus Non-Financial firms (NFFs) are examined separately and compared together.
Although results usually document that (present) dividends tend to be irrelevant in accounting for (signalling future) corporate profitability. However,
we have found evidence that dividends, for NFFs, were documented to be relevant in explaining future corporate profitability when the regressed
variable is proxied as Return on Capital which may be captured as Earnings Before Tax/Paid-in Capital. In particular, the relationship between
present corporate dividend distribution and future corporate profitability is positive, suggesting the higher (lower) the dividends the higher (lower)
the profitability. In addition, of all the models tested, for a sizeable fraction, we have also found significant linkage between the lagged and the
leadership values of the dependent variable being corporate profitability or corporate financial performance, either for FFs or NFFs if not both

References

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  • Aharony, Joseph - Swary, Itzhak (1980), “Quarterly Dividend And Earnings Announcements And Stockholders’ Returns: An Empirical Analysis ”, The Journal of Finance, Vol. 35, Issue 1, pp. 1-12.
  • Aivazian, Varouj - Booth, Laurence - Cleary, Sean (2003), “Do Emerging Market Firms Follow Different Dividend Policies From US Firms? ”, Journal of Financial Research, Vol. 26, Issue 3, pp. 371-387.
  • Ajanthan, Alagathurai (2013), “The Relationship Between Dividend Payout And Firm Profitability: A Study of Listed Hotels And Restaurant Companies in Sri Lanka ”, International Journal of Scientific And Research Publications, Vol. 3, Issue 6, pp. 1-6.
  • Allen, Franklin - Michaely, Roni (2003), “ Payout Policy ”, In Handbook of The Economics of Finance Vol. 1, pp. 337-429, Elsevier.
  • Allen, Franklin - Bernardo, Antonio E. - Welch, Ivo (2000), “ A Theory of Dividends Based on Tax Clienteles”, The Journal of Finance, Vol. 55, Issue 6, pp. 2499-2536.
  • Ambarish, Ramasastry - Kose, John - Williams, Joseph (1987), “ Efficient Signaling With Dividends And Investments ”, The Journal of Finance, Vol. 42, Issue 2, pp. 321-343.
  • Arellano, Manuel - Bond, Stephen (1991), “ Some Tests of Specification For Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence And an Application to Employment Equations ”, The Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 58, Issue 2, pp. 277-297.
  • Arslan, Ozgur (2008), “ Perceptions of Managers For Dividend Distributions ”, Hacettepe University, Economics and Administrative Sciences Faculty Journal, Vol. 26, Issue 1, pp. 85-98.
  • Baker, H. Kent - Farrelly, Gail E. - Edelman, Richard B. (1985), “ A Survey of Management Views on Dividend Policy ”, Financial Management, Vol. 14, Issue 3, pp. 78-84.
  • Baker, Malcolm - Nagel, Stefan - Wurgler, Jeffrey (2007), “ The Effect of Dividends on Consumption ”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1, pp. 277–291.
  • Bar-Yosef, Sasson - Huffman, Lucy (1986), “ The Information Content of Dividends: A Signaling Approach ”, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 21, Issue 1, pp. 47-58.
  • Benartzi, Shlomo - Michaely, Roni - Thaler, Richard (1997), “ Do Changes in Dividends Signal The Future or The Past?”, The Journal of Finance, Vol. 52, Issue 3, pp. 1007-1034. Berle, Adolf - Means, Gardiner (1932), Private Property And The Modern Corporation, New York: MacMillan.
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  • Brava, Alon - Graham, John R. - Harvey, Campbell - Michaely, Roni (2005), “ Payout Policy in The 21st Century ”, Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 77, Issue 3, pp. 483-527.
  • Brickley, James A. (1983), “ Shareholder Wealth, Information Signaling And The Specially Designated Dividend: An Empirical Study ”, Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 12, Issue 2, pp. 187-209.
  • Brittain, John A. (1964), “ The Tax Structure And Corporate Dividend Policy”, The American Economic Review, Vol. 54, Issue 3, pp. 272-287.
  • Brittain, John A. (1966), “ Corporate Dividend Policy ”, Brookings institution.
  • Brooks, Raymond M. (1996), “ Changes in Asymmetric Information at Earnings And Dividend Announcements ”, Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Vol. 23, Issue 3, pp. 359-378.
  • Chan, Konan - Ikenberry, David - Lee, Inmoo (2000), “ Do Managers Knowingly Repurchase Stock on The Open-market ”, Unpublished working paper, Rice University.
  • Chateau, J. P. D. (1979), “ Dividend Policy Revisited: Within‐And Out‐Of‐Sample Tests ”, Journal of Business Finance And Accounting, Vol. 6, Issue 3, pp. 355-370.
  • Chay, Jong-Bum - Suh, Jungwon (2005), “ Cross-Sectional Determinants of Dividend Payments: International Evidence ”, Sungkyungkwan University, pp. 3-53.
  • Chemmanur, Thomas J. - Tian, Xuan (2014), “ Communicating Private Information to The Equity Market Before a Dividend Cut: An Empirical Analysis ”, The Journal of Financial And Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 49, Issue 5-6, pp. 1167-1199.
  • DeAngelo, Harry - DeAngelo, Linda (1990), “ Dividend Policy And Financial Distress: An Empirical Investigation of Troubled NYSE Firms”, The Journal of Finance, Vol. 45, Issue 5, pp. 1415-1431.
  • DeAngelo, Harry - DeAngelo, Linda (2006), “ The Irrelevance of The MM Dividend Irrelevance Theorem ”, Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 79, Issue 2, pp. 293-315.
  • DeAngelo, Harry - DeAngelo, Linda - Skinner, Douglas J. (1996), “ Reversal of Fortune Dividend Signaling And The Disappearance of Sustained Earnings Growth ”, Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 40, Issue 3, pp. 341-371.
  • DeAngelo, Harry - DeAngelo, Linda - Skinner, Douglas J. (2000), “ Special Dividends And The Evolution of Dividend Signaling ”, Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 57, Issue 3, pp. 309-354.
  • DeAngelo, Harry - DeAngelo, Linda - Skinner, Douglas J. (2004), “ Are Dividends Disappearing? Dividend Concentration And The Consolidation of Earnings ”, Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 72, Issue 3, pp. 425-456.
  • Denis, David J. - Denis, Diane K. - Sarin, Atulya (1994), “ The Information Content of Dividend Changes: Cash Flow Signaling, Overinvestment, And Dividend Clienteles ”, Journal of Financial And Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 29, Issue 4, pp. 567-587.
  • Dewenter, Kathyrn L. - Warther, Vincent A. (1998), “ Dividends, Asymmetric Information, and Agency Conflicts: Evidence from a Comparison of the Dividend Policies of Japanese and U.S. Firms ”, Vol. 53, Issue 3, pp. 879-904.
  • Ellili, Nejla (2011), “ Ownership Structure, Financial Policy And Performance of The Firm: US Evidence ”, Vol. 6, Issue 10, pp. 80-93.
  • Fama, Eugene F. (1974), “ The Empirical Relationships Between The Dividend And Investment Decisions of Firms ”, The American Economic Review, Vol. 64, Issue 3, pp. 304-318.
  • Fama, Eugene F. - Babiak, Harvey (1968), “ Dividend policy: An Empirical Analysis ”, Journal of The American Statistical Association, Vol. 63, Issue 324, pp. 1132-1161.
  • Fama, Euegene F. - French, Kenneth R. (2001), “ Disappearing Dividends: Changing Firm Characteristics or Lower Propensity to Pay? ”, Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 60, Issue 1, pp. 3-43.
  • Frankfurter, George M. - Wood, Bob (2002), “ Dividend Policy Theories And Their Empirical Tests ”, International Review of Financial Analysis, Vol. 11, Issue 2, pp. 111-138.
  • Fuller, Kathleen - Thakor, Anjan (2002), “ Signaling, Free Cashflows and Nonmonotonic Dividends ”, Working Papers Series, University of Georgia and University of Michigan Business School.
  • Glen, Jack D. - Karmokolias, Yannis - Miller, Robert R. - Shah, Sanjay (1995), “ Dividend Policy And Behavior in Emerging Markets: To Pay or Not to Pay ”, The World Bank.
  • Grinstein, Yaniv - Michaely, Roni (2005), “ Institutional Holdings And Payout Policy ”, The Journal of Finance, Vol. 60, Issue 3, pp. 1389-1426.
  • Grullon, Gustavo - Michaely, Roni (2002), “ Dividends, Share Repurchases, And The Substitution Hypothesis ”, The Journal of Finance, Vol. 57, Issue 4, pp. 1649-1684.
  • Grullon, Gustavo - Michaely, Roni - Benartzi, S. – Thaler, Richard H. (2005), “ Dividend Changes do Not Signal Changes in Future Profitability ”, The Journal of Business, Vol. 78, Issue 5, pp. 1659-1682.
  • Hasan, Mudassar - Ahmad, Muhammad I. - Rafiq, Yasir - Rehman, Ramiz U. (2015), “ Dividend Payout Ratio And Firm’s Profitability: Evidence From Pakistan ”, Theoretical Economics Letters, Vol. 5, pp. 441-445.
  • Hassan, M. Kabir - Farhat, Joseph - Al-Zubi, Bashir (2003), “ Dividend Signaling Hypothesis And Short-Term Asset Concentration of Islamic Interest Free Banking ”, Islamic Economic Studies, Vol. 11, Issue 1, pp. 1-30.
  • Healy, Paul M. - Palepu, Krishna G. (1988), “ Earnings Information Conveyed by Dividend Initiations And Omissions ”, Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 21, Issue 2, pp. 149-175.
  • Jagannathan, Murali - Clifford Stephens P. - Weisbach, Michael S. (2000), “ Financial Flexibility And The Choice Between Dividends And Stock Repurchases ”, Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 57, Issue 3, pp. 355-384.
  • Jensen, Michael C. - Meckling, William H. (1976), “ Theory of The Firm: Managerial Behavior, Agency Costs And Ownership Structure ”, Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 3, Issue 4, pp. 305-360.
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There are 70 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Business Administration
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Özgür Kaymaz 0000-0003-1287-7873

Onder Kaymaz 0000-0001-9875-537X

Batuhan Güvemli 0000-0002-2985-5198

Publication Date August 16, 2021
Submission Date May 8, 2021
Published in Issue Year 2021

Cite

APA Kaymaz, Ö., Kaymaz, O., & Güvemli, B. (2021). Testing Dividend Signaling Theory in Turkey as an Emerging Market: Empirical Evidence From Public Firms Listed in Borsa Istanbul. Muhasebe Ve Finansman Dergisi59-92. https://doi.org/10.25095/mufad.934750
AMA Kaymaz Ö, Kaymaz O, Güvemli B. Testing Dividend Signaling Theory in Turkey as an Emerging Market: Empirical Evidence From Public Firms Listed in Borsa Istanbul. Muhasebe ve Finansman Dergisi. Published online August 1, 2021:59-92. doi:10.25095/mufad.934750
Chicago Kaymaz, Özgür, Onder Kaymaz, and Batuhan Güvemli. “Testing Dividend Signaling Theory in Turkey As an Emerging Market: Empirical Evidence From Public Firms Listed in Borsa Istanbul”. Muhasebe Ve Finansman Dergisi, August (August 2021), 59-92. https://doi.org/10.25095/mufad.934750.
EndNote Kaymaz Ö, Kaymaz O, Güvemli B (August 1, 2021) Testing Dividend Signaling Theory in Turkey as an Emerging Market: Empirical Evidence From Public Firms Listed in Borsa Istanbul. Muhasebe ve Finansman Dergisi 59–92.
IEEE Ö. Kaymaz, O. Kaymaz, and B. Güvemli, “Testing Dividend Signaling Theory in Turkey as an Emerging Market: Empirical Evidence From Public Firms Listed in Borsa Istanbul”, Muhasebe ve Finansman Dergisi, pp. 59–92, August 2021, doi: 10.25095/mufad.934750.
ISNAD Kaymaz, Özgür et al. “Testing Dividend Signaling Theory in Turkey As an Emerging Market: Empirical Evidence From Public Firms Listed in Borsa Istanbul”. Muhasebe ve Finansman Dergisi. August 2021. 59-92. https://doi.org/10.25095/mufad.934750.
JAMA Kaymaz Ö, Kaymaz O, Güvemli B. Testing Dividend Signaling Theory in Turkey as an Emerging Market: Empirical Evidence From Public Firms Listed in Borsa Istanbul. Muhasebe ve Finansman Dergisi. 2021;:59–92.
MLA Kaymaz, Özgür et al. “Testing Dividend Signaling Theory in Turkey As an Emerging Market: Empirical Evidence From Public Firms Listed in Borsa Istanbul”. Muhasebe Ve Finansman Dergisi, 2021, pp. 59-92, doi:10.25095/mufad.934750.
Vancouver Kaymaz Ö, Kaymaz O, Güvemli B. Testing Dividend Signaling Theory in Turkey as an Emerging Market: Empirical Evidence From Public Firms Listed in Borsa Istanbul. Muhasebe ve Finansman Dergisi. 2021:59-92.