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Exploring the Bidirectional Causality between Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: Panel Evidence from MINT Countries

Year 2025, Issue: 108, 231 - 250, 15.10.2025

Elveda Özdilek Kırca , Şerif Canbay

https://doi.org/10.25095/mufad.1730469

Abstract

This study aims to reveal the direction and nature of the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth in MINT countries (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Türkiye). In this study, annual data for the period 1970–2023 were analyzed using the Bootstrap Panel Causality test developed by Kónya (2006). According to the results of the analysis, there is a statistically significant and positive causality relationship from economic growth to FDI in Indonesia, Nigeria and Türkiye. In the analysis conducted for Mexico, no statistically significant relationship was found. On the other hand, a statistically significant and positive causal relationship from FDI to economic growth was found only in Nigeria. The results of the study provide noteworthy implications for both policymakers and investors and emphasise that the impact of FDI on growth should be evaluated in line with country dynamics. These findings underline the importance of aligning FDI policies with each country’s structural characteristics and ensuring that foreign capital flows are directed toward productive sectors in order to support sustainable growth.

Keywords

MINT Countries Foreign Direct Investment Economic Growth Bootstrap Panel Causality Test

References

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  • Agrawal, Gaurav (2015). Foreign direct investment and economic growth in BRICS economies: A panel data analysis. Journal of Economics, Business and Management, 3 (4), 421-424.
  • Ahmad, Fayyaz - Draz, Muhammad U. - Yang, Su C. (2018). “Causality nexus of exports, FDI and economic growth of the ASEAN5 economies: Evidence from panel data analysis”. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 27 (6), 685–700. https://doi.org/10.1080/09638199.2018.1426035
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  • Fazaalloh, Al M. (2024), “FDI and economic growth in Indonesia: A provincial and sectoral analysis”. Journal of Economic Structures, 13 (1), 1-22. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40008-023-00323-w
  • Gupta, Priya- Singh, Archana (2016). "Causal nexus between foreign direct investment and economic growth: A study of BRICS nations using VECM and Granger causality test". Journal of Advances in Management Research, 13 (2), 179-202. https://doi.org/10.1108/JAMR-04-2015-0028
  • Iqbal, Muhammad- Shaikh, Faiz M.- Hussain Shar A. (2010). "Causality Relationship between Foreign Direct Investment. Trade and Economic Growth in Pakistan", Asian Social Science, 6 (9), 82-89.
  • Jain, Kriti - Gangopadhyay, Medha- Mukhopadhyay, Kakali, (2022), “Prospects and challenges of green bonds in renewable energy sector: case of selected Asian economies”, Journal of Sustainable Finance & Investment, 14 (3), 708–731. https://doi.org/10.1080/20430795.2022.2034596
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  • Kahveci, Şükran- Terzi, Harun (2017). “Türkiye’de doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkilerin nedensellik analizleri ile testi”. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, (49), 135-154. https://doi.org/10.18070/erciyesiibd.323908.
  • Kangal, Nalan- Eroğlu, İlhan- Çoban, Mustafa N. (2018). “İş yapma kolaylığı kapsamında MINT ülkeleri üzerine bir değerlendirme”. Sosyal Bilimler Araştırmaları Dergisi, 13 (2), 21-48.
  • Kokotovic, Filip- Kurecic, Petar (2016). The MINT countries: A regression analysis of the selected economic features. Economic and Social Development: Book of Proceedings, 265.
  • Kónya, László. (2006). “Exports and growth: granger causality analysis on OECD countries with a panel data approach”. Economic Modelling, 23 (6), 978-992. doi: 10.1016/j.econmod.2006.04.008.
  • Koyuncu, Fatma T. (2017). “Doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar, ekonomik büyüme ve istihdam arasındaki ilişki: Türkiye uygulaması (1990-2015)”. International Journal of Social and Economic Sciences, 7 (2), 17–24. (Retrieved from https://ijses.org/index.php/ijses/article/view/217).
  • Lee, Cheng W.- Fernando, Agus (2021). “Foreign direct investment, export and economic growth in Indonesia: ARDL-ECM analysis”. Review of Integrative Business and Economics Research, 10 (3), 68-82.
  • Lin, Boqiang- Benjamin, I. Nelson (2018). “Causal relationships between energy consumption, foreign direct investment and economic growth for MINT: Evidence from panel dynamic ordinary least square models”. Journal of cleaner production, 197, 708-720. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.06.152.
  • Ogunjobi, Joseph O.- Ogunjumo, Rotimi A. - Ibitowa, Stephen A. (2024). “Carbon dioxide emissions from energy consumption, foreign direct investment and economic growth in Nigeria: A multivariate causal analysis”. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 15,1, 513–518. https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.18118.
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Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Çift Yönlü Nedenselliğin İncelenmesi: MINT Ülkeleri Üzerine Ampirik Bir Panel Veri Analizi

Year 2025, Issue: 108, 231 - 250, 15.10.2025

Elveda Özdilek Kırca , Şerif Canbay

https://doi.org/10.25095/mufad.1730469

Abstract

Bu çalışma, MINT ülkelerinde (Meksika, Endonezya, Nijerya ve Türkiye) doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar (FDI) ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkinin yönünü ve niteliğini ortaya koymayı amaçlamaktadır. Bu çalışmada, 1970-2023 dönemine ait yıllık veriler, Kónya (2006) tarafından geliştirilen Bootstrap Panel Nedensellik testi kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Analiz sonuçlarına göre, Endonezya, Nijerya ve Türkiye’de ekonomik büyümeden FDI’ya doğru istatistiki olarak anlamlı ve pozitif yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir. Meksika için yapılan analizde ise istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir ilişki bulunmamıştır. Öte yandan, FDI’dan ekonomik büyümeye doğru istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ve pozitif bir nedensellik ilişkisine yalnızca Nijerya’da rastlanmıştır. Çalışmanın sonuçları hem politika yapıcılar hem de yatırımcılar açısından dikkate değer çıkarımlar sunmakta; özellikle FDI’ın büyüme üzerindeki etkisinin ülke dinamikleri doğrultusunda değerlendirilmesi gerektiğine vurgu yapmaktadır. Bu bulgular, doğrudan yabancı yatırım politikalarının her ülkenin yapısal özellikleriyle uyumlu hâle getirilmesinin ve yabancı sermaye akımlarının sürdürülebilir büyümeyi destekleyecek üretken sektörlere yönlendirilmesinin önemini ortaya koymaktadır.

Keywords

MINT Ülkeleri Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar Ekonomik Büyüme Bootstrap Panel Nedensellik Testi

References

  • Acaravcı, Ali - Akyol, Müge (2017). “Türkiye’de doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar, dış ticaret ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi”. Uluslararası Ekonomi ve Yenilik Dergisi, 3 (1), 17-33.
  • Adalı, Zafer - Yüksel, Serhat (2017). “Gelişmekte olan ekonomilerde doğrudan yabancı yatırım ve ekonomik gelişme arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi”. Marmara İktisat Dergisi, 1 (2), 109-118.
  • Agbailu, Adejumo O. (2025). “Impact of foreign direct investment from multinational corporations on economic growth in Nigeria (2015-2022): Evidence from autoregressive distributed lag and vector error models”. African Journal of Mathematics and Statistics Studies, 8 (1), 11-30.
  • Agrawal, Gaurav (2015). Foreign direct investment and economic growth in BRICS economies: A panel data analysis. Journal of Economics, Business and Management, 3 (4), 421-424.
  • Ahmad, Fayyaz - Draz, Muhammad U. - Yang, Su C. (2018). “Causality nexus of exports, FDI and economic growth of the ASEAN5 economies: Evidence from panel data analysis”. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 27 (6), 685–700. https://doi.org/10.1080/09638199.2018.1426035
  • Aina, A. L.- Joseph, A. I.- Oloyede, H. O. (2025). “Economic policy uncertainty and foreign direct investment in Nigeria: Evidence from quantile regression”. NIU Journal of Social Sciences, 11(1), 15-26.
  • Al-Sadig, Ali (2013). “The effects of foreign direct investment on private domestic investment: Evidence from developing countries”. Empirical Economics, 44, 1267–1275. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-012-0569-1
  • Alfaro, Laura- Chanda, Areendam- Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem - Sayek, Selin. (2004). “FDI and economic growth: The role of local financial markets”. Journal of International Economics, 64 (1), 89–112.
  • Asiedu, Elizabeth (2002), “On the determinants of foreign direct investment to developing countries: Is Africa different?”. World Development, 30, 107-119. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0305-750X(01)00100-0
  • Balasubramanyam, Vudayagi. N., Salisu, Mohammed. - Sapsford, David (1996). “Foreign direct investment and growth in EP and is countries”, The Economic Journal, 106 (434), 92–105. https://doi.org/10.2307/2234933
  • Balsalobre Lorente, Daniel.– Luzon, Lucia İ.- Usman, Muhammad- Jahanger, Atif (2023). “The relevance of international tourism and natural resource rents in economic growth: Fresh evidence from MINT countries in the digital era”. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 30, 81495–81512. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-25022-0.
  • Baltagi, Badi H.– Feng, Qu– Kao, Chihwa (2012). “A lagrange multiplier test for cross-sectional dependence in a fixed effects panel data model”. Journal of Econometrics, 170 (1), 164-177. doi: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2012.04.004.
  • Benghoul, Marwa - Aydin, Halil İ. (2019). “Foreign direct investment and economic growth in Turkey”. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 24 (4), 1181-1194.
  • Borensztein, E.- De Gregorio, J.- Lee, J. W. (1998). “How does foreign direct investment affect economic growth?”. Journal of international Economics, 45 (1), 115-135.
  • Breusch, Trevor S.- Pagan, Adrian R. (1980). “The lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification in Econometrics”. The Review of Economic Studies, 47 (1), 239-253. doi: 10.2307/2297111.
  • Caves, Richard E. (1971). “International corporations: The Industrial economics of foreign investment”. Economica, 38 (149), 1–27. https://doi.org/10.2307/2551748.
  • Chakrabarti, Avik (2001). “The determinants of foreign direct investments: Sensitivity analyses of cross-country regressions”. Kyklos, 54, 89-114. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-6435.00142.
  • Chowdhury, Abdur- Mavrotas, George (2006). “FDI and growth: What causes what?”. World Economy, 29 (1), 9-19.
  • De Mello, L. R. (1997). “Foreign direct investment in developing countries and growth: A selective survey”. The Journal of Development Studies, 34, 1, 1–34. https://doi.org/10.1080/00220389708422501
  • Duarte, Leandro. D. R. V.- Kedong, Yin- Xuemei, Li (2017). “The relationship between FDI, economic growth and financial development in Cabo Verde”. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 9 (5), 132-142.
  • Dunning, John H. (1981), “Explaining the international direct investment position of countries: Towards a dynamic or developmental approach”. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 117 (1), 30–64. http://www.jstor.org/stable/40438551
  • Fazaalloh, Al M. (2024), “FDI and economic growth in Indonesia: A provincial and sectoral analysis”. Journal of Economic Structures, 13 (1), 1-22. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40008-023-00323-w
  • Gupta, Priya- Singh, Archana (2016). "Causal nexus between foreign direct investment and economic growth: A study of BRICS nations using VECM and Granger causality test". Journal of Advances in Management Research, 13 (2), 179-202. https://doi.org/10.1108/JAMR-04-2015-0028
  • Iqbal, Muhammad- Shaikh, Faiz M.- Hussain Shar A. (2010). "Causality Relationship between Foreign Direct Investment. Trade and Economic Growth in Pakistan", Asian Social Science, 6 (9), 82-89.
  • Jain, Kriti - Gangopadhyay, Medha- Mukhopadhyay, Kakali, (2022), “Prospects and challenges of green bonds in renewable energy sector: case of selected Asian economies”, Journal of Sustainable Finance & Investment, 14 (3), 708–731. https://doi.org/10.1080/20430795.2022.2034596
  • Jordaan, Jacob A. (2011). "FDI, local sourcing, and supportive linkages with domestic suppliers: The case of Monterrey, Mexico." World Development 39 (4). 620-632. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2010.08.012
  • Kahveci, Şükran- Terzi, Harun (2017). “Türkiye’de doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkilerin nedensellik analizleri ile testi”. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, (49), 135-154. https://doi.org/10.18070/erciyesiibd.323908.
  • Kangal, Nalan- Eroğlu, İlhan- Çoban, Mustafa N. (2018). “İş yapma kolaylığı kapsamında MINT ülkeleri üzerine bir değerlendirme”. Sosyal Bilimler Araştırmaları Dergisi, 13 (2), 21-48.
  • Kokotovic, Filip- Kurecic, Petar (2016). The MINT countries: A regression analysis of the selected economic features. Economic and Social Development: Book of Proceedings, 265.
  • Kónya, László. (2006). “Exports and growth: granger causality analysis on OECD countries with a panel data approach”. Economic Modelling, 23 (6), 978-992. doi: 10.1016/j.econmod.2006.04.008.
  • Koyuncu, Fatma T. (2017). “Doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar, ekonomik büyüme ve istihdam arasındaki ilişki: Türkiye uygulaması (1990-2015)”. International Journal of Social and Economic Sciences, 7 (2), 17–24. (Retrieved from https://ijses.org/index.php/ijses/article/view/217).
  • Lee, Cheng W.- Fernando, Agus (2021). “Foreign direct investment, export and economic growth in Indonesia: ARDL-ECM analysis”. Review of Integrative Business and Economics Research, 10 (3), 68-82.
  • Lin, Boqiang- Benjamin, I. Nelson (2018). “Causal relationships between energy consumption, foreign direct investment and economic growth for MINT: Evidence from panel dynamic ordinary least square models”. Journal of cleaner production, 197, 708-720. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.06.152.
  • Ogunjobi, Joseph O.- Ogunjumo, Rotimi A. - Ibitowa, Stephen A. (2024). “Carbon dioxide emissions from energy consumption, foreign direct investment and economic growth in Nigeria: A multivariate causal analysis”. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 15,1, 513–518. https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.18118.
  • Özmerdivanlı, Arzu- Akgün, Evin (2024). “Doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar, yüksek teknolojili ürün ihracatı ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki: G20 ülkelerinde bir uygulama”. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi Vizyoner Dergisi, 15 (41), 41-57.
  • Pesaran, M. Hashem- Ullah, Aman- Yamagata, Takashi (2008), “A bias-adjusted LM test of error cross-section independence”. The Econometrics Journal, 11 (1), 105-127 doi: 10.1111/j.1368-423X.2007.00227.x.
  • Pesaran, M. Hashem- Yamagata, Takashi (2008). “Testing slope homogeneity in large panels. Journal of Econometrics”. 142 (1), 50-93. doi: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2007.05.010.
  • Pesaran, M. Hashem (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels. Cambridge Working Papers in Economics. 1240, 1-39. doi: 10.17863/CAM.5113.
  • Sabharwal, Karan (2019). “Causal link between FDI and economic growth? Panel data analysis of MINT economies”. International Journal of Business Analytics and Intelligence, 7 (2), 35-41.
  • Samad, Abdus- Akhtaruzzaman, Muhammad (2014): “FDI, financial development and economic growth: Evidence of causality from East and South East Asian countries’. Global Business and Economics Review, 16 (2), 202–213.
  • Sanchez-loor, Daniel. A.- Zambrano-monserrate, Manuel A. (2015). “Causality analysis between electricity consumption, real GDP, foreign direct investment, human development and remittances in Colombia, Ecuador and Mexico”. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 5 (3), 746-753.
  • Schneider, Friedrich- Frey, Bruno S. (1985). “Economic and political determinants of foreign direct investment”. World Development, 13 (2), 161–175. doi:10.1016/0305-750x(85)90002-6
  • Shahzad, Umer - Hussain, Mumtaz- Qin, Fengming - Muhamadi, Settimba (2019). “Role of FDI and foreign remittances in boosting and economic growth: Evidence from Brazil”. European Online Journal of Natural and Social Sciences, 8 ( 1), 118 - 127.
  • Sunde, Tafirenyika (2017). "Foreign direct investment, exports and economic growth: ADRL and causality analysis for South Africa". Research in International Business and Finance, 41, 434-444.
  • Fatima, Syede T., (2015). “Productivity spillovers from foreign direct investment: evidence from Turkish micro-level data”. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 25 (3), 291–324. https://doi.org/10.1080/09638199.2015.1050057
  • Taiwo, Shakirudeen- Olofin, Sodik (2024). Foreign direct investments and human capital development in Nigeria: A firm‑level analysis of manufacturing and information and communication technology industries (AERC Working Paper HCD‑CCS‑010). African Economic Research Consortium. https://publication.aercafricalibrary.org/handle/123456789/3866
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There are 54 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Finance and Investment (Other)
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Elveda Özdilek Kırca 0000-0003-0737-0971

Şerif Canbay 0000-0001-6141-7510

Publication Date October 15, 2025
Submission Date June 30, 2025
Acceptance Date September 29, 2025
Published in Issue Year 2025 Issue: 108

Cite

APA Özdilek Kırca, E., & Canbay, Ş. (2025). Exploring the Bidirectional Causality between Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: Panel Evidence from MINT Countries. Muhasebe Ve Finansman Dergisi(108), 231-250. https://doi.org/10.25095/mufad.1730469
AMA Özdilek Kırca E, Canbay Ş. Exploring the Bidirectional Causality between Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: Panel Evidence from MINT Countries. Muhasebe ve Finansman Dergisi. October 2025;(108):231-250. doi:10.25095/mufad.1730469
Chicago Özdilek Kırca, Elveda, and Şerif Canbay. “Exploring the Bidirectional Causality Between Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: Panel Evidence from MINT Countries”. Muhasebe Ve Finansman Dergisi, no. 108 (October 2025): 231-50. https://doi.org/10.25095/mufad.1730469.
EndNote Özdilek Kırca E, Canbay Ş (October 1, 2025) Exploring the Bidirectional Causality between Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: Panel Evidence from MINT Countries. Muhasebe ve Finansman Dergisi 108 231–250.
IEEE E. Özdilek Kırca and Ş. Canbay, “Exploring the Bidirectional Causality between Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: Panel Evidence from MINT Countries”, Muhasebe ve Finansman Dergisi, no. 108, pp. 231–250, October2025, doi: 10.25095/mufad.1730469.
ISNAD Özdilek Kırca, Elveda - Canbay, Şerif. “Exploring the Bidirectional Causality Between Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: Panel Evidence from MINT Countries”. Muhasebe ve Finansman Dergisi 108 (October2025), 231-250. https://doi.org/10.25095/mufad.1730469.
JAMA Özdilek Kırca E, Canbay Ş. Exploring the Bidirectional Causality between Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: Panel Evidence from MINT Countries. Muhasebe ve Finansman Dergisi. 2025;:231–250.
MLA Özdilek Kırca, Elveda and Şerif Canbay. “Exploring the Bidirectional Causality Between Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: Panel Evidence from MINT Countries”. Muhasebe Ve Finansman Dergisi, no. 108, 2025, pp. 231-50, doi:10.25095/mufad.1730469.
Vancouver Özdilek Kırca E, Canbay Ş. Exploring the Bidirectional Causality between Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: Panel Evidence from MINT Countries. Muhasebe ve Finansman Dergisi. 2025(108):231-50.