Abstract
Bu
çalışmada Türkiye’deki ticari bankaların aktif karlılığını etkileyen makroekonomik
faktörlerin tespiti amaçlanmıştır. Bu çerçevede, 2009-2016 dönemine ait
BIST-banka endeksinden seçilen on bir adet bankanın mali verilerinden elde
edilen sektör ortalama aktif karlılığı (ROA) ile enflasyon oranı, faiz oranı,
ekonomik büyüme oranı, USD kuru gibi makroekonomik değişkenlerin etkileşimleri
incelenmiştir. Çalışmada, değişik veri yapılarına uyum sağlayabilme yeteneği ve
yapısal esnekliği nedeniyle Çok Değişkenli Uyarlayıcı Regresyon Uzanımları (MARS)
yöntemi tercih edilmiştir. Yapılan çalışmada enflasyon oranı ve döviz kurunun
ROA üzerinde etkisi olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Buna göre, enflasyon artışı eşik
değere kadar ROA’yı arttırırken bu nokta aşıldıktan sonra ROA’yı azaltıcı yönde
etki yapmaktadır. Nominal dolar kurunun artışı ise ROA’ya artan oranda katkı
sağlarken eşik değer aşıldıktan sonra ROA’ya olan katkısı sabit kalmaktadır.
Keywords
References
- Abreu, M. and V. Mendes, 2002. “Commercial Bank Interest Margins and Profitability: Evidence For Some E.U. Countries”, University of Porto Working Paper Series, No. 122.
- Alexiou Constantinos and Voyazas Sofoklis. 2009. “ Determınants Of Bank Profıtabılıty: Evıdence From The Greek Bankıng Sector”, Economıc Annals, Volume LIV No. 182 / July – September 2009 UDC: 3.33 ISSN: 0013-3264 DOI:10.2298/EKA0982093A
- Ali K., Akhtar M.F., Ahmed H.Z, 2011. “Bank-Specific and Macroeconomic Indicators of Profitability - Empirical Evidence from the Commercial Banks of Pakistan”, International Journal of Business and Social Science Vol. 2 No. 6; April
- Atasoy, H., 2007. “Expenditure-Income Analysis in Turkish Banking Sector and Determinants of Profitability”, Un Published Dissertations of Senior Specialists. Ankara: Central Bank of Turkey.
- Demirgüç-Kunt, A. and H. Huizinga. (1998) “Determinants of Commercial Bank Interest Margins and Profitability: Some International Evidence”, World Bank. Policy Research Working Paper Series, No. 1900.
- Dietrich A., Wanzenried G. 2011. “Determinants of bank profitability before and during the crisis: Evidence from Switzerland”, Int. Fin. Markets, Inst. and Money 21 (2011) 307–327.
- Frıedman, J. H. (1991), “Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines”, Annals Of Statistics, 19(1), 1-67.
- Jiang, G., E. Law and A. Sze, (2003), “The Profitability of the Banking Sector in Hong Kong”, Hong Kong Monetary Authority Quarterly Bulletin, September 2003.Özfalcı, Y. (2008). “Çokdeğişkenli Uyarlanabilir Regresyon Kesitleri: MARS” Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Gazi Üniversitesi FBE.
Abstract
This
study intended to ascertain
the macroeconomic components affecting commercial banks’ asset profitability in
Turkey. In this framework, for 2009-2016 period the possible interactions
between sectoral average return on assets(ROA), calculated by using the
financial data of eleven banks selected from the BIST-bank index, and inflation
rate, interest rate, economic growth rate, USD rate, as macroeconomic variables,
were examined. Because of its ability of adopting to different data structures
and architectural flexibility, the Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines
(MARS) method was preferred in this study. It was figured out that the
inflation rate and exchange rate had an effect on ROA. Accordingly, inflation
increases the ROA up to the threshold value, which, after exceeding this point,
has an effect in reducing the ROA of the banks. The increase in the nominal
dollar exchange rate contributes to ROA of the banks increasingly, while the
contribution to ROA of the banks exceeding the threshold value is fixed.
Keywords
References
- Abreu, M. and V. Mendes, 2002. “Commercial Bank Interest Margins and Profitability: Evidence For Some E.U. Countries”, University of Porto Working Paper Series, No. 122.
- Alexiou Constantinos and Voyazas Sofoklis. 2009. “ Determınants Of Bank Profıtabılıty: Evıdence From The Greek Bankıng Sector”, Economıc Annals, Volume LIV No. 182 / July – September 2009 UDC: 3.33 ISSN: 0013-3264 DOI:10.2298/EKA0982093A
- Ali K., Akhtar M.F., Ahmed H.Z, 2011. “Bank-Specific and Macroeconomic Indicators of Profitability - Empirical Evidence from the Commercial Banks of Pakistan”, International Journal of Business and Social Science Vol. 2 No. 6; April
- Atasoy, H., 2007. “Expenditure-Income Analysis in Turkish Banking Sector and Determinants of Profitability”, Un Published Dissertations of Senior Specialists. Ankara: Central Bank of Turkey.
- Demirgüç-Kunt, A. and H. Huizinga. (1998) “Determinants of Commercial Bank Interest Margins and Profitability: Some International Evidence”, World Bank. Policy Research Working Paper Series, No. 1900.
- Dietrich A., Wanzenried G. 2011. “Determinants of bank profitability before and during the crisis: Evidence from Switzerland”, Int. Fin. Markets, Inst. and Money 21 (2011) 307–327.
- Frıedman, J. H. (1991), “Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines”, Annals Of Statistics, 19(1), 1-67.
- Jiang, G., E. Law and A. Sze, (2003), “The Profitability of the Banking Sector in Hong Kong”, Hong Kong Monetary Authority Quarterly Bulletin, September 2003.Özfalcı, Y. (2008). “Çokdeğişkenli Uyarlanabilir Regresyon Kesitleri: MARS” Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Gazi Üniversitesi FBE.
Details
| Primary Language | Turkish |
|---|---|
| Subjects | Business Administration |
| Journal Section | Articles |
| Authors | |
| Publication Date | October 1, 2018 |
| Submission Date | March 16, 2018 |
| Acceptance Date | July 15, 2018 |
| Published in Issue | Year 2018 Volume: 1 Issue: 2 |
Cited By
